Indianapolis, IN — The Indianapolis Colts find themselves back at square one, firmly sitting in their reservation-required carousel car that finds them in the offseason without a starting quarterback.
At least, that’s sorta the case.
For starters, Daniel Jones is all but set to return to Indianapolis and continue repping the number seventeen Colts jersey that he let Philip Rivers borrow for a month. He is an unrestricted free agent with zero ties to the franchise other than his three months of strong quarterbacking. However, the Colts’ not-so-subtle social media push since the season concluded clearly reveals their plans for the future, so why are they being so blatant about it? Especially when Anthony Richardson, the player they drafted 4th overall in the 2023 NFL Draft, is supposed to be waiting in the wings for a much-needed year in the passenger seat?
As for the Richardson angle, it makes sense that Indy wants to run back the ‘QB competition’ from a year ago now that both players enter the offseason with massive question marks health-wise.
Therefore, it begs the question: why have the Colts so publicly pushed for Jones’ retention?
Are they truly that uncertain of Richardson’s rehab and/or development? Did Daniel Jones prove himself to be the no-brainer starting quarterback of this franchise?
Jones undoubtedly improved his image around the league after half a season of play; however, does a strong rebound on the field, coupled with forgotten off-the-field standards, do enough to convince Indy to put all of their foreseeable eggs into his basket? If so, why isn’t his injury history playing a bigger factor?
Injury History (via draftsharks.com):
Sep. 8, 2019: Shoulder Clavicle Fracture — Grade 1 (2 games missed)
Dec. 1, 2019: Pedal Ankle (high) Sprain — Grade 3 (2 games missed)
Nov. 29, 2020: Thigh Hamstring Strain — Grade 2 (1 game missed)
Dec. 13, 2020: Pedal Ankle Sprain — Grade 2 (1 game missed)
Dec. 16, 2020: Thigh Hamstring Strain — Grade 2 (1 game missed)
Oct. 10, 2021: Head Cranial Concussion — Grade 1 (0 games missed)
Nov. 28, 2021: Cervical Neck Pinch — Grade 1 (6 games missed)
Oct. 2, 2022: Pedal Ankle Sprain/Pull — Grade 1 (0 games missed)
Oct. 8, 2023: Cervical Neck Pinch — Grade 1 (3 games missed)
Nov. 5, 2023: Knee ACL Tear — Grade 3 (8 games missed)
Nov. 26, 2025: Leg Fibula Fracture — Grade 1 (0 games missed)
Dec. 7, 2025: Pedal Achilles Tear — Grade 3 (4 games missed)
Daniel Jones has suffered twelve injuries during his seven-year career thus far, six of which have been Grade 2 or higher (half of those being Grade 3).
Jones has suffered a season-ending injury in nearly half (3x) of his career.
He has started 82 games in the NFL, but he’s also missed 28 games due to injury.
Now, let’s not get it twisted, toughness has never been a concern with Daniel Jones. Quite frankly, he’s widely regarded as one of the toughest players leaguewide. Durability, on the other hand, is a different story.
The Indianapolis Colts are at a crossroads regarding Daniel Jones, but bringing him back does not seem to be part of the equation; it’s the contract.
During The Insiders pregame show on Super Bowl Sunday, NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero reported, “My understanding is the Colts plan to open talks soon with Daniel Jones on a multi-year deal to keep him in Indianapolis…I am told Jones wants to be in Indianapolis, and the Colts want to work out a deal. If they can’t, the franchise tag would be an option, but either way, Jones stays in Indy.”
So, there it is. It’s not a matter of if he’ll be back, but how much it’ll cost.
Spotrac calculated that Daniel Jones’ market value projects a 4-year, $174,394,208 deal — a $43.6M AAV. More than triple what he earned during his lone prove-it year this past season, Jones is set to receive a healthy payday after another unhealthy finish.
Jones would become the 16th-highest-paid quarterback in terms of average annual salary, which feels fair when you look at it as middle-of-the-pack value. That’s more or less the going rate for a lower-tiered franchise quarterback, so while the compensation seems right, the decision-making to go all-in on Jones is the concern.
Daniel Jones undeniably rebounded in the best way this past season, but he also reminded folks of his physical shortcomings, regardless of whether his valiant efforts to play through the pain over the years are indeed as commendable as they come.
Not only is Jones’s injury history a valid concern itself, but the potential exodus of Colts leadership following the season looms largest. Not to suggest that he’ll inevitably revert to his pre-Indy self, but as far as we know, Jones thrives under head coach and offensive playcaller Shane Steichen, not the other way around. Not to mention a return to form following an Achilles tear is incredibly unlikely, especially in the following season.
Sure, Sam Darnold’s now-standardized climb to relevance will undoubtedly play a huge role in organizations across the league thinking that they’ll be able to replicate such success with similar reclamation projects. Darnold took a brief pit stop in Minnesota with Kevin O’Connell before finding his home in Seattle; however, despite this being a copycat league, chasing that high will more than likely result in an opposite trajectory entirely.
Even if you believe that Daniel Jones’s most recent version of himself is here to stay, the injury history and potential offensive shakeup are enough to be concerned about such a commitment. The Colts don’t have a first-round pick for the next two drafts; therefore, premium attempts for a brand new franchise quarterback are on hold until at least the 2028 NFL Draft.
With that being said, surely the Colts would be willing to truly start anew from its front office to coaching and even its franchise quarterback if this were to go off the rails. Recent history suggests that organizational failure is inevitable, though if Indy decides to move on from Daniel Jones (and/or Shane Steichen, Chris Ballard, etc), midway through that projected 4-year contract — a hypothetical that implies poor play was on display — they’d be prepared to take another first-round shot in the draft.
What cannot be refuted at this point is that Daniel Jones is the definition of injury-prone. His toughness is honorable, but his durability weakens more and more every year. Even if he returns to form under Shane Steichen, that pesky injury bug will always be looming, and that’s what’s most concerning.
