Fresh off a demoralizing 35-31 loss to the Buffalo Bills, the New England Patriots will get a chance to bounce back in front of a national audience. Their Week 16 matchup with the Baltimore Ravens was
flexed to Sunday night, a slot fitting for the game’s high-stakes nature.
The Patriots need a win to keep their one-game advantage over the surging Bills in the AFC East, while anything but a victory would deal a major blow to the 7-7 Ravens’ postseason hopes. The circumstances alone should make this a competitive affair, and a look at our head-to-head comparison also confirms that notion.
Passing game
Patriots pass offense vs. Ravens pass defense: Even though New England’s aerial attack faltered in the second half against Baltimore, the unit has the potential to challenge the 17th-ranked pass defense in terms of EPA per dropback (0.064). Drake Maye still remains an MVP-caliber quarterback. And given that Baltimore’s pass rush has been lackluster so far this year, he should be allowed sufficient time in the pocket to go through the process without rushing through his reads. The bigger question might be the Patriots’ pass catchers, and their ability to beat man coverage on a consistent basis. Should the otherwise zone-heavy Ravens decide to switch things up, the group will need to show improvement from last week. | Edge: Patriots
Patriots pass defense vs. Ravens pass offense: New England had its issues defending Bills tight ends Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid last Sunday, and the Ravens present no less of a challenge: Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely are also among the better tight end duos in football. Their matchup against the Patriots’ linebackers and safeties could be key in passing situations considering that the Patriots’ cornerbacks should be competitive versus Baltimore’s wide receivers. Of course, that is based on the projection of Carlton Davis and Marcus Jones being available after they sat out practice on Wednesday due to injury. If one or both are unavailable, Baltimore might just have the edge, especially if New England’s pass rush continues to run hot and cold as well. | Edge: Patriots
Running game
Patriots rushing offense vs. Ravens run defense: The Patriots shredded the Bills on the ground, gaining 246 yards on 25 carries and scoring two long touchdowns. The Ravens defense, however, presents a different challenge: Baltimore is ranked 12th in EPA per run (-0.095) compared to Buffalo’s 31st-place ranking entering last week. That might not seem like a major difference, but could make life more challenging for a New England offense that has yet to show that it can duplicate successful performance in the run game on a week-to-week basis. A lot will hinge on the Ravens’ available personnel, particularly at linebacker, but we are still giving the home team a slight advantage for now. | Edge: Ravens
Patriots run defense vs. Ravens rushing offense: The previous three battles are all fairly even in our estimation, but this one has a clear winner: New England’s run defense has been bad over the last few weeks, and particularly since losing Milton Williams to an ankle injury. He will be out again this week, and the status of linebacker Robert Spillane is also up in the air. If Spillane is out for a second week in a row, the results this Sunday might look a lot like last week’s: the Bills finished with 171 yards on the ground and time and again took advantage of the Patriots failing to control gaps up front and secure the second level. The NFL’s leading rushing offense in yards per carry (5.2) is more than equipped to exploit those issues as well. | Edge: Ravens
Special teams
Special teams was a big reason why the Patriots lost to the Bills last week, and the unit will need a quick and decisive turnaround heading into this week’s game against Baltimore. The Ravens, after all, field an all-around sound group in the game’s third phase. Coverage, return, punting, kicking, you name it: New England will be in for a dog fight come Sunday night. That does not necessarily mean Jeremy Springer’s group is in for a repeat performance, but that similar issues particularly in kickoff coverage could again prove costly against a team averaging just over a yard less per runback than pre-Week 15 Buffalo. | Edge: Ravens
Coaching
The Patriots’ game against the Ravens will feature plenty of experience at the head coaching and offensive coordinator positions. New England’s duo of Mike Vrabel and Josh McDaniels as well as Baltimore’s John Harbaugh and Todd Monken are all multi-year veterans in their respective roles, something that cannot be said for the defensive coaches involved in the matchup: Zak Kuhr is a first-time play-caller for the Patriots, while Zachary Orr is only in his second season as DC. This matchup is fairly even, although we are giving the visitors a slight edge based on their overall success this season particularly on offense. | Edge: Patriots
Verdict
Although the owners of a superior record, the Patriots are entering Week 16 as 2.5-point underdogs against the Ravens. Their most recent performance — i.e. collapsing versus Buffalo with the division title in sight — obviously influenced the betting line, but it does not look like an accurate representation of their capabilities: New England has shown that it can play winning football on the road and get the job done against uneven opponents; 30 minutes of bad football against one of the NFL’s best teams does not change this.
That said, as the breakdown above illustrates, the Ravens are a capable team themselves. While not where they aim to be in terms of record and overall effectiveness on both sides of the ball, they have the talent to put pressure on New England in its areas of vulnerability. All in all, this looks like it has all the makings of a tight battle.
