Another clunker from Cincinnati Reds starter Brady Singer on Sunday sunk most any chance of taking the series over the Cleveland Guardians. It also sunk the Reds further and further down the statistical leaderboards in most every pitching category, a place they’ve not been for most of the Derek Johnson Era.
As of the morning of May 18th, here are a few notable categories where Reds pitching ranks absolutely, positively worst in Major League Baseball.
K/BB (1.65)
xERA (5.14)
FIP (5.04)
xFIP (4.76)
SIERA
(4.62)
Those numbers are flat-out bad. They’re objectively the absolute worst.
Here are a handful of other notable categories where Reds pitching, while not absolutely the worst, rank among the bottom five teams in the sport:
HR (63, t-27th)
ERA (4.83, 26th)
GB% (39.7%, t-27th)
fWAR (0.7, 28th)
HR/9 (1.27, 27th)
K% (19.6%, 27th)
BB/9 (4.74, 28th)
Pitches (7245, 27th or 4th most)
Perhaps the most troubling aspect of this is that it really isn’t a product of just one or two extremely poor performances so far. It’s not even a starter/reliever problem anymore, as both units have mostly devolved into an absolute mess (aside from Chase Burns) as injuries and leverage alterations have made it a haphazard crew out there.
Even with the Herculean efforts by Burns, Reds starting pitchers rank 26th overall in xERA (4.92), 27th in FIP (4.98), and 28th in xFIP (4.61). They also rank 28th in K/9 (6.92), 27th in K/BB (1.86), and 29th in SIERA (4.68).
The relief corps is perhaps even more atrocious. They rank dead last in SIERA (4.56), 29th (by .01 point) in xFIP (4.96), last in BB% (14.9%), 29th in K-BB% (7.2%), last in xERA (5.42, with 4.80 being next), 29th in FIP (5.23), and dead last in BB/9 (6.06).
As concerning as the product has been, it’s just as concerning that there really isn’t an obvious baked-in replacement plan down on the farm right now. Chase Petty is just about the only arm at AAA that could, in theory, step in and make an impact, but the 23 year old is still very much a work in progress (who’s also had his teeth kicked in at the big league level before). Caleb Ferguson is nearing a return to the bullpen, but he’s hardly the kind of arm you can lean on as a bullpen saver.
The injury front is no clearer. Emilio Pagan and Hunter Greene both still have over a month before they’ll even begin to ramp up, while Brandon Williamson is out even longer after landing on the 60-day IL. Rhett Lowder’s injury doesn’t appear to be structural at all, but he’s still stuck in a nebulous holding pattern as they evaluate the long-term ramifications of him pitching through this shoulder issue.
So, who the Reds are who they are on the mound right now, for better or worse. There are plenty of arms down there who have performed much, much better at times before than they have so far in 2026, and on that the Reds are going to simply have to bank going forward, barring more than one acquisitions from outside the organization. And until they figure it out, the Reds are going to continue to find themselves buried in the NL Central standings.
