The Spurs are 3-2 and have shown flashes of greatness but have not been consistent. Is there anything to worry about?
Marilyn Dubinski: No worries at all. They’re a young squad who entered the season under entirely different circumstances than they ever had before, fresh off a Finals appearance with much less rest and a combination of confidence and pressure to do more, whereas in the past, they had been waiting for 2-3 more months for this moment and were more eager to prove something. They have now learned how differently they are viewed and will be played, and it’s just a matter of adjusting and getting it right.
I’m not really concerned about anything (beyond how much longer the Spurs can avoid the league’s injury curse), but I am curious to see how Tobias Harris’ eventual return will shake things up.
Mark Barrington: Absolutely not. The NBA season is way too long and every game before the new year is basically there for teams to work on their sets and develop players. If I’m worried at all, it’s because the Spurs aren’t taking advantage of that and are playing short rotations way too early in the season. Give Tarris Reed some run. You’re going to need him in June.
Jeje Gomez: Had they not made the Finals last season and retained every rotation player, I would be a little concerned, but the context makes all the difference. The Spurs are trying something new with their starting lineup, but could simply revert back to what worked last season and would likely look better instantly, just on synergy alone. There are no rotation players, except maybe Kornet, who are declining due to age. Eventually, either the new lineups will work, or the coaching staff will go back to the old ones and everything will be fine.
It’s extremely early, but what do you think about the three-guard lineup so far?
Dubinski: It’s interesting; the numbers say it’s been pretty decent, but that doesn’t relieve concerns about it just yet. So far, Castle has been hitting his threes to keep the offense more balanced, and they aren’t being punished on defense as long as Wemby is out there, but how sustainable is it? I feel like playing it alongside Vassell just adds to the lack of size, but then again, if they decide to start Harris, I don’t want Vassell to be benched, because he has proven (like he did last year) to be the perfect relief valve for this offense. Finally, perhaps the biggest question is also if the bench production is suffering with all three starting, even if their minutes are staggered and one of them is always out there. Vassell being the one to eventually move to the bench wouldn’t solve that.
Barrington: It’s a little clunky, but it’s less than 10 games in. Give it time to develop. I don’t think it’s going to work long term, not because three guard lineups are intrinsically bad, but because in order to make it work, you need guards that can hit outside shots to create space, and none of the trio of Fox, Castle, and Harper are great outside shooters. Castle is shooting pretty well from three so far this season, but it’s a small sample size, and I don’t have a lot of confidence that that is sustainable. I think it’s going to be moot by mid-season, because I think that Tobias Harris will eventually get into the starting lineup, and that will push one of the three guards to the bench.
Gomez: I think it has the issues everyone paying attention predicted it would have. When the three guards are out there together, the Spurs get diminishing returns because all three are better on the ball and there’s just one of those. They are not great shooters, and Castle in particular is being used to hide centers and is being dared to shoot wide-open looks. Nothing too surprising. There are enough good moments that suggest it can work given time, so there’s no need to change anything yet, but I expect the coaching staff to eventually send one of them to the bench to streamline lineups.
Tobias Harris is reportedly getting closer to returning to action. What role do you expect him to have, and whose minutes do you think will go down to make room for him?
Dubinski: Carter Bryant and Harrison Barnes have been averaging 8 mpg apiece, so most of that is probably gone (although I imagine Bryant will continue to his chances each game). Right now six players (the starters plus Julian Champagnie) are averaging 28-32 mpg, plus 22 for Keldon Johnson, and the only other player in double figures is Kornet at 14 minutes. I imagine it will be by committee that Harris gets his minutes, and we’ll just see a larger rotation with the minutes more spread out.
Barrington: Please, dear God, don’t let it be Devin Vassell. He’s been the second-best player on the team so far in the season.
What I think is going to happen is that all of the starters’ minutes will go down. Mitch Johnson has been playing playoff-style short rotations for most of the young season, and that’s not sustainable for 82 games. But I’m worried that there won’t be time for players like Carter Bryant and Tarris Reed to develop. I get that the coaches are trying to get the starters to develop rhythm in a new system, but hopefully, we’ll see more games where 10 or 11 players all get significant time on the court.
Gomez: I wouldn’t be surprised if the coaching staff experiments with his role early on. He’ll likely come off the bench initially, because that’s how the Spurs have been dealing with guys returning from injury, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he finds himself in the starting lineup at one point. Ideally, I think his best role would be as a secondary bench scorer next to one of the guards, but I won’t blame Mitch Johnson for trying a few things out before deciding what he wants the team’s main offseason addition to do. As for whose minutes he’ll take, I imagine Carter Bryant’s (a stint in Austin would probably be better for his development than minimal minutes with the big team) and Harrison Barnes’ mostly, but having another quality player available should help reduce the playing time of other guys who might need more rest.
