These observations — where I look at Real Madrid’s history, its players on loan, Castilla, tactical tidbits, and other relevant thoughts — are now a regular thing. All previous editions can be found here.
It’s Tuesday, which means tomorrow Real Madrid take on Manchester City tomorrow — a match that nominally would be a regular group stage game without huge consequences. But the context behind this one is different for obvious reasons. Can Real Madrid step up and buy Xabi Alonso more time? Will the team
rally? Can they turn it around?
1. Playing Manchester City At The Right Time?
It was a brutal November stretch. We thought the team had gotten the difficult part of the schedule — Juventus, Barcelona, Liverpool — out of the way. But it turns out being away from home was more problematic than we thought, and the abysmal away-from-home performances took a toll on the team, not only results-wise but also the process itself, which was gut-wrenchingly bad.
And then Real Madrid finally returned home after six games, and instead of rejuvenating themselves, put in arguably their worst performance of the season.
Not great!
Alonso deviated from the press in every away game bar the match in Girona, where Real Madrid allowed just seven passes per defensive action — below even their average to start the season where they were at their most aggressive.
The press held up in that game for the most part, though the transition defense hurt the team in a couple sequences, including the goal they conceded. It was mostly the team’s offense, and more specifically, the wastefulness, that cost them.
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They are generally more daring at home. As they should be. They are Real Madrid. They should be imposing their will in every game. Alonso’s process was getting results early this season. But his style of play shifted right after the 4-0 win against Valencia. The team was more conservative against Liverpool, implementing a possession-based model without putting numbers in the box. The results compounded with the poor play, the team spiralled — both tactically and mentally.
It’s at times like this where character is truly tested. Will Xabi Alonso give in to what the players want, or will he stick to his guns — even if it means he’ll die by his own sword? Has he already let the players win? Are there a lack of leaders in this team? Where are the Cristianos? Modrics? Benzemas? Who can be Sergio Ramos? Toni Kroos?
Maybe Manchester City arrives at the Bernabeu at just the right time. They are a big team, but just off the elite — Bayern, PSG, Arsenal — and the Bernabeu will be alive. Pep Guardiola will hold a high line and give space. Could Real Madrid take advantage of that and ride the momentum into the New Year?
City are still City. They follow the same fundamentals they always have, but don’t have as much talent as they did when Kevin de Bruyne was around, or when Bernardo Silva was younger.
When pressed, they are not as comfortable escaping pressure, but if you hold a high line and press them, you run the risk of conceding a big chance, out of absolutely nothing, to Erling Haaland of all people:
Newcastle do a bunch of things right in the above sequence, and City are fumbling the ball. But one lucky bounce, one break, and Haaland is off. Those are the chances Real Madrid were conceding earlier on this season when they were aggressive. But the math at that time checked out. They outscored opponents. But it’s something to be weary about even with this version of City.
Will a win over City bring the momentum back, or will it just be a band-aid? Stay tuned.
2. Returning to what worked(?)
Turning your press on and off, like a switch, is difficult to do — especially for teams that don’t have pressing baked into their DNA. It may work better for teams that have previously already downloaded pressing into their nervous system.
It seemed like Xabi Alonso was finding some common ground with the players. Pressing aggressively, petal to the metal, may not be something that has to happen all the time.
As mentioned above, the press returned full force against Girona. Even if the team looked a bit rusty after deviating from it for three straight games, there was an emphasis to “go back to the roots”:
Against Athletic Bilbao one game later, Real Madrid dropped slightly deeper into a mid-block — allowing Athletic to play out of the back a bit more. The trade-off worked. Vinicius and Mbappe were fluid up top, while the two-way midfielders closed passing lanes and launched the team in transition.
That versatility is what makes Real Madrid the most successful club in the history of the sport. Alonso sold us on “rock and roll football”, but he also sold us on “versatility” and “adaptability”.
As always, the challenge when you shape-shift in scheme and personnel so much is finding rhythm. The team still hasn’t proved to be on the level of the elites, and part of that is because there has been too much variance in the line-ups and tactics.
Will there be a turning point where it all clicks before it’s too late?
3. Jude Bellingham, glue guy
Real Madrid still have a lot of puzzle pieces that fit awkwardly — not because the puzzle pieces aren’t great, but because they overlap and get in each other’s way. The Jude Bellingham / Arda Güler overlap has been a big talking point.
In theory, Bellingham plus Güler shouldn’t be a problem, primarily because Bellingham plus anyone shouldn’t be a problem because Bellingham himself is versatile and can play four-to-five positions.
But even so, Bellingham may be at his best in a free box-to-box role, where he can help the team defend in transition while being in place to pull strings just behind the forwards. It will be hard to give Güler that same freedom without disrupting defensive balance. The one who takes the biggest backseat if both Güler and Bellingham play (with everything going through the two of them) is Fede Valverde — and that’s a big reason why the Uruguayan has looked better at right-back or right-wing this season.
But make no mistake, Bellingham, a Ballon D’or level player, should be the one prioritized if the team wants to punch to its highest ceiling. It’s not that everyone can’t co-exist, but it’s worth noting Bellingham is the one that needs to be in his best role.
It’s hard to laser in on Bellingham’s most important trait, or what to focus on from the Athletic game above, where he started and put in a masterful two-way performance. Was it his defense on both flanks covering for full-backs? Was it his hold up play and passing leading to the Eduardo Camavinga goal? Was it his ball-winning in transition? In that 36-second clip, you can see how vital he is to the team’s ball progression. He roams, calms the team down, receives the ball, and his motor and verticality unlocks meaningful build-up.
But Bellingham needs to be more consistent. He followed the Athletic performance with a dud against Celta where he didn’t have the same sharpness. The team needs his best — it goes without saying.
4. Fede Valverde, “forced” at right-back — a blessing?
This is a very twisted statement (and in no way an attempt to make light of all the horrific injuries), but: the best available XI may pick itself by default against Manchester City. Fede Valverde will have to drop into right-back, and the rotation tightens with injuries to Eduardo Camavinga and Kylian Mbappe. Will that make room for Gonzalo Garcia and / or Franco Mastantuono? It would be interesting to see the collective energy of a Mastantuono – Valverde right-wing dyad.
(To be clear, I am not stating that the team is better without Mbappe, Militao, Trent, Carvajal, or Camavinga — but of the remaining players it’s hard to put players other than their best position.)
It’s always puzzling to hear about Valverde’s distaste for playing right-back. He’s so good there. He is combative and involved at that position — and the best version of Valverde is the one that gets him the most ‘involved’. He can defend and attack. Against Celta Vigo, in one of the worst nights in recent memory, Valverde was one of the only fighters.
Valverde also gets to carry the ball through lines more at right-back — something he doesn’t get to do as much when playing behind Jude Bellingham and Arda Güler. He’s confident ducking his shoulder and escaping pressure deep:
The ‘Valverde problem’ generally returns when Dani Carvajal and Trent Alexander-Arnold are fit and Valverde is put back into a double-pivot alongside Aurelien Tchouameni. But this team is running through so many injuries, there’s barely any time to talk about ideal line-ups.
If Real Madrid are to beat City, they will need all of the above (and a lot more) to tick in the right direction. Valverde and Carreras will have to win their wing-back duels and prevent crosses to Erling Haaland who needs to be tightly marked by Antonio Rüdiger and Raul Asencio. Can the team find enough goals without Mbappe if the Frenchman can’t play? Can Bellingham and Güler help the team escape pressure and get the team into dangerous attacking positions?
A lot hinges on this game.
