According to two well-known and respected bracketologists, the Ohio State men’s basketball team has, to this point, done enough to break into the NCAA Tournament field for the first time since 2022.
Jake Diebler’s second Ohio State team is 8-2 through the first 10 games of the season, the program’s second-best start over the last seven years. However, the high winning percentage thus far is partially due to the level of competition the Buckeyes have faced — of their eight wins, five of them were over teams
outside of the top-200 in the NET rankings. The other three teams they have beaten, Notre Dame, Northwestern, and West Virginia, sit outside of the top-50.
The Buckeyes’ 67-66 loss to Pitt on November 28 will act as an ankle weight on their NCAA Tournament hopes all season. Damarco Minor’s buzzer-beater at the Petersen Events Center may end up being Ohio State’s undoing, as the Panthers are currently 167 in the NET and 117 in KenPom, with home losses to Quinnipiac and Hofstra on their resume.
If Ohio State does wind up making the big dance this year, their seeding will be at least one rung lower than it could have been because of that loss to the Panthers.
Big Underdog Bracketology, a bracketology website ran by Jason Carmello that consistently grades out towards the top of the Bracket Matrix, released an early-season bracket on Tuesday afternoon. Big Underdog has Ohio State as the second-highest 11-seed, which would have them just barely missing the Dayton play-in games and instead would likely match the Buckeyes up with 6-seed Auburn in the first round.
A couple hours after Minor’s buzzer-beater found the bottom of the net, Carmello told me that Ohio State’s loss to Pitt last season “cost Ohio State the NCAA Tournament last year” and that this year’s loss to the Panthers could be a “death blow” to their tournament chances in March, when the margins are so painfully slim. Still, he has Ohio State narrowly sliding into the at-large field for now.
ESPN’s Joe Lunardi, the most well-known bracketologist in the business, has been releasing bracket predictions since the fall. He had Ohio State in the field from the jump, and despite the Buckeyes’ diet of mostly empty-calorie wins this season, still has Ohio State as a 9-seed as of Tuesday night.
If you don’t trust Big Underdog or Lunardi at this point of the season, the Bracket Matrix has already begun aggregating all of the available bracket predictions for the 2026 tournament at bracketmatrix.com.
Historically, the Bracket Matrix is more reliable than any one “expert” as it tends to root out outliers and show the general consensus of who is in and who is out. As of Tuesday, the Buckeyes are the highest 11-seed in the tournament.
At this point of the season, your opinion of Ohio State — whatever it may be — is probably valid. You can argue that Ohio State has had to slug it out with Notre Dame, Northwestern, and West Virginia to earn their three best wins, and none of those teams are expected tournament teams. On the flip side, you could argue that Ohio State’s wins over Northwestern and West Virginia both happened away from home, which will look solid on their resume as they enter Big Ten play. However you feel so far, it’s probably valid.
But to this point, Ohio State is — in the eyes of the people who spend countless hours studying it — an NCAA Tournament team.
Barely.
