The NFL will release its full schedule in a few weeks, but we do know who the Denver Broncos home and away opponents will be.
They’ll obviously play the AFC West teams twice in both locations, but their other home opponents will be the Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, Los Angeles Rams, Seattle Seahawks, and Jacksonville Jaguars. At first glance, that feels like an absolute gauntlet of teams.
On the away side, they’ll travel to face the New England Patriots, New York Jets, Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco
49ers, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Carolina Panthers. That schedule seems a little better and if you are going to have to play strong teams it is obviously better to have them visiting your house.
Warren Sharp of Sharp Football Analysis ranked every teams strength of schedule heading into the 2026 season. He actually put the Broncos down with the 11th easiest schedule in the NFL this season. His ranking is based off the expected win total for each team.
So while it may look like Denver is running a gauntlet of playoff teams, the reality is a previous seasons win total is unlikely to duplicate the following season. Sharp broke it down like this:
Basing strength of schedule on last year’s records is lazy, inaccurate, and inefficient.
NFL teams often undergo significant changes between seasons, including roster adjustments, coaching staff changes, and player development.
Additionally, the NFL’s 17-game season is a small sample size.
Outcomes can be heavily influenced by luck, such as fumble recoveries or tipped passes.
These factors make prior season records a poor indicator of future performance.
Statistical analysis supports this.
From 2010 to 2018, only 5.7% of a team’s actual SOS was explained by opponents’ prior-year records, and this correlation dropped to just 3.9% in more recent years.
The predicted win total strength of schedule has actually shown more accuracy than the previous years’ results. He goes on to explain why in the link above.
However, if we use the standard strength of schedule models based on the previous years’ results then Denver’s ranking doesn’t change all that much jumping to 15th — or middle of the road — with a .512 opponent win percentage.
What do you think of the Broncos strength of schedule? I feel like its going to be tough regardless, but at least they are playing the teams I think are playoff contenders at home rather than on the road.
