Duke (5-4, 4-1) hosts Virginia (8-2, 5-1) on Saturday at 3:30 pm EST in a game between two of the five teams with only one conference loss. TV coverage provided by ESPN2. The Blue Devils are currently
favored by 5.5 points. A Duke victory would keep the Blue Devils in the race for securing a spot in the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game and ensure participation in a postseason bowl game. Both teams are coming off a loss in their last outing. Duke lost 37-34 to UConn on the road, while Virginia dropped a 16-9 decision to Wake Forest at home in Scott Stadium.
Injury Update: The status of Virginia starting quarterback Chandler Morris is TBD at this time. Morris was knocked from the game last week with a blow to the head/neck area and did not return. Virginia Head Coach Tony Elliot stated in his Tuesday press conference that he was hopeful Morris would be back practicing on Wednesday. Additional information may be available when official injury reports are released Thursday evening. Duke player status remains the same. Safety Terry Morris is unavailable while recovering from a torn ACL. Linebackers Nick Morris and Elliot Schaper are out for the season. Cornerback Kimari Robinson did not play against UConn and his status remains unknown. Perhaps Thursday’s injury report will provide an update but those reports tend to be bland.
Elephant in the Room: Actually it is Elephants in the Room. Plural. Turnovers and penalties. Everyone who follows Duke football knows turnovers and penalties have been the culprit in multiple lost games this season including last week at UConn. Duke has a +2 Turnover Margin through nine games but was -3 last week in the loss to UConn and -5 earlier in the year in a loss to Illinois. Virginia is +7 through their 10 games. On the penalties front, Duke averages 69.33 penalty yards per game while Virginia is much better at 43.8 penalty yards per game. Duke absolutely must play clean football on Saturday to beat Virginia.
Offense: Virginia likes to run the ball averaging 184.3 yards per game on the ground led by running back J’Mari Taylor with 78.4 ypg. Taylor has 169 carries for 784 yards and 11 touchdowns. The Cavaliers have 24 rushing touchdowns as a team. Priority number one for the Duke defense will be slowing down and containing the Virginia rushing attack.
In the passing game, Virginia averages 243.5 yards per game. Quarterback Chandler Morris has 12 touchdowns against five interceptions. If Morris is not cleared to play, backup Daniel Kaelin has completed 30 of 52 attempts for 339 yards with one touchdown and one interception. He has seen action in four games this season. Regardless of which quarterback plays, the Duke defense must apply pressure to disrupt timing. Duke has given up too many pass completions on 3rd down and long in recent games. Duke Defense Coordinator Jonathan Patke stated on Monday, “Our pass defense has to improve…we got them in some passing situations and let them off the hook…we have to get better in our technique and fundamentals of stopping the pass.”
Leading receiver Trell Harris has 43 receptions for 605 yards and four touchdowns. Jahmal Edrine has 35 receptions for 431 yards and one touchdown while slot receiver Cam Ross has 35 receptions for 395 yards and two touchdowns. Out of the backfield, J’Mari Taylor has 34 receptions for 160 yards.
Defense: Virginia plays stingy defense yielding only 21.6 points per game. The Cavaliers have won multiple one score games including three games in overtime. The defense made impactful plays at the end of the game to secure those victories. Duke Offensive Coordinator Jonathan Brewer stated on Monday, “They’re a violent defense. Middle linebacker is a heck of a player. They’re attacking, they don’t allow people to score a lot of points. They make you earn it. It’s going to be a test.”
Linebacker Kam Robinson leads Virginia in tackles with 64 followed closely by safety Devin Neal with 60. Defensive lineman Daniel Rickert has recorded 5.5 sacks and the team’s interceptions leader is defensive back Ja’son Prevard with 3.
Beating the same drum as always, Duke must attack the Virginia defense with balance. Run the ball so you can pass and pass the ball so you can run. Duke cannot allow the Virginia defense to make them one dimensional.
Prediction: The Blue Devils play improved football in all three phases of the game to secure the victory in a close game. Duke 33, Virginia 26.
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