Yesterday there was some movement around the situation with Dallas and Jason Robertson. The Stars announced they signed the star forward to a one-year contract worth $12.0 million to avoid arbitration. If nothing else, Dallas has managed to kick the can down the road to 2027 to see if they want to trade or re-sign the forward to a long-term contract, putting to end (at least temporarily) the trade rumor mill.
Before that news broke last night, we were ready to run with an article this morning about
how Robertson’s situation compared to Erik Karlsson back in 2023. The thought doesn’t mesh as cohesively now as it might have yesterday now that there’s been resolution to the Robertson situation now that he has a contract for next season, but there’s not too much else going on in the dead of summer so it’s going to see the light of day anyways.
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In the summer of 2023, it was reported Erik Karlsson and the San Jose Sharks had mutually agreed to send the star defender to a new team. Talks dragged into summer, the Penguins were one of a handful of teams continually in the rumors as being a spot Karlsson might have interest. Finally, on August 6th, a deal was made to send Karlsson to Pittsburgh.
Fast forward a few years and the basics with Jason Robertson are somewhat the same. It’s unknown exactly whether Dallas and Robertson want to commit to one another for a long-term deal before the star forward hits unrestricted free agency next summer. Robertson doesn’t hold formal trade protection, but his reluctance to sign a long-term deal with Seattle ended trade talk between the Stars and Kraken. Much like a few years ago with Karlsson, in this situation Robertson and the Pens have been mentioned plenty of times in the same breath by national insiders sharing what could be possible.
The big question now is whether or not the sagas will end similarly with the Penguins acquiring the player after the very long buildup of a potential transaction.
That part of the scenario is far different from Karlsson and the Sharks, where all parties were motivated to find resolution via a trade.
The other hanging issue is two-fold; does Robertson want to sign a long contract with the Penguins? And do the Pens have enough assets to make a trade worth the while for Dallas?
Leaping those two potentially massive hurdles would be a tall task. Stack the Pittsburgh organization up against Seattle’s for a two or three year outlook and there’s probably not that much difference. The Pens acquiring Jason’s brother Nick could be a factor in their favor, it could also not be a major variable either. Pittsburgh has plenty of cap space to sign a massive contract, yet it remains unknown if that interest would be reciprocated. By signing a one-year deal now, J. Robertson isn’t eligible to officially sign an extension until January 1st – another potential landmine in a road full of them.
The Penguins didn’t sit around this summer counting on a J. Robertson trade to materialize either. Pittsburgh signed Andrei Kuzmenko, Hendrix Lapierre and the aforementioned brother Nick to complete an already stacked group of forwards, none of whom have been traded away yet this off-season (though, a lack of swapping out anyone could be an indicator of keeping players to manage a trade with Dallas).
The Pens got their guy in 2023 when they acquired Karlsson. By all accounts, they would be interested in getting over the finish line and adding J. Robertson if such a move was practical. Finding interest from the player, the Stars and getting a practicable deal for themselves has proved elusive so far for Pittsburgh – and Dallas and the rest of the NHL so far too. That may not change, but this week’s arbitration hearing ups the ante for a deadline in place for all parties to figure out how they approach the situation.
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It doesn’t look like Pittsburgh is going to be able to connect on acquiring the star player this time around – and possibly that’s for the better too. Seattle’s offer to Dallas was said to include the seventh overall pick in the draft. Dallas was reportedly looking to recoup what they traded for Mikko Rantanen (two first round picks, two third round picks, plus a quality young NHL player in Logan Stankoven) for giving up Robertson. That would be a tough pill to swallow for a team in the stage the Penguins are at, even if all the other factors were coming together.
In the end, the odds are long for any one team to acquire such a high-end player. There are many options, including the most alluring one of staying with a very good Stars team that has a lot going for it. Thus ends the great Jason Robertson trade rumors saga of summer 2026. All that’s left now is to see if the Penguins now turn their attention to other matters and how quickly that might be before more moves are made.
