The 99th edition of the Territorial Cup is on tap on Friday. Arizona holds a 51-46-1 edge in the series, but the cup currently belongs to ASU after last season’s 49-7 win in Tucson.
Arizona (8-3, 5-3 Big 12) is No. 25 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings, while ASU (8-3, 6-2) is No. 20. The last time both were ranked was in 2014. The line opened with the UA a small favorite and Wildcats are still 1.5-point favorites.
How will Arizona do in this one? Our staff makes its predictions.
Kim Doss — ASU wins 31-28
I picked
this game to go Arizona’s way before the season started, but it was with the idea that this would be the game it had to have to be bowl eligible. That was already secured, so that takes away the must-win motivation. A rivalry game always has motivation, but with two fairly evenly-matched teams and ASU hosting the game, the lack of that extra push probably works against Arizona.
These two teams are exact opposites. Arizona is the stronger passing team. It is also better at shutting down the other team’s passing game. ASU is the better rushing team and also has a better run defense. Who gets just enough out of the weaker part of its game to overcome its rival? Edge has to go to the home team.
Ezra Amacher — Arizona wins 31-27
I’ve gone back and forth on this one. Arizona is probably the hottest team in the Big 12 right now. Noah Fifita has found his guy in receiver Kris Hutson, who has 255 receiving yards over the last two games. The running backs are on a tear, and it might be addition by subtraction that Ismail Madhi is getting more touches with Quincy Craig injured. I think what’s most impressed me about Arizona, though, is the defense’s ability to make adjustments. Arizona has only allowed 13 second half points over the last three games. That tells me that even if ASU jumps out to a one or two-score lead Friday, Arizona will be able to battle back. I’m siding with the Wildcats in a close one.
Adam Green — Arizona wins 27-17
Rivalry games can be unpredictable, and when the teams appear to be as evenly matched as these it is certainly tough to have an idea of what to expect. So, when looking to make this call I try to find things I can count on and try to figure out who has more pathways to victory.
In this case, it’s Arizona. The Wildcats (health permitting) are a deeper team that has shown more maturity than their opponents this week. Where the Sun Devils have struggled to beat most everyone they’ve played, Arizona has handled the lesser teams the way you would expect a good team to. Beating bad teams doesn’t make a team good, but beating them handily says something about you.
Further, heading into this game Arizona has a clear advantage at QB. Noah Fifita has been playing sound, confident football and while he has missed some throws he’s done a good job of not putting the ball in danger. His counterpart this week, Jeff Sims, is a walking turnover who Arizona is hoping puts the ball in the air. If Danny Gonzales can take away or limit what Sims and the Devils get on the ground, the defense should be able to get enough stops and maybe even some turnovers.
Is there a world where Arizona loses this game? Absolutely. The Cats could turn the ball over themselves and make the kind of mistakes they’ve limited during this very impressive stretch of play. ASU isn’t a bad team and they are certainly confident, especially at home. But the feeling here is Arizona’s defense makes more big plays than ASU’s while the offense, which is more balanced, does enough to put points on the board.
Juan Serrano — ASU wins 28-24
This Duel in the Desert is the most anticipated matchup since 2014 when both teams were playing for a spot in the Pac-12 Championship. This year, the Sun Devils still have a chance to repeat as Big 12 champs, but it would take some help from some other Big 12 teams. First comes first, they needs to take care of the Wildcats.
Unfortunately, for Arizona, the speciality of the ASU offense comes on the ground. This has clearly been the weakest spot of the defense this season. In order for the Wildcats to have a chance in this game, they will need to limit the rushing attack by ASU. Raleek Brown only has four touchdowns on the season, but it’s not about getting into the end zone for him. It’s about wearing down the defense and getting the tough yardage. Brown averages 6.2 yards per carry. Now add in a quarterback that is tough to bring down in Jeff Sims. He averages 5.1 yards per carry. Between the two, that would pretty much be a first down every two plays. Against BYU and Houston, that was pretty much the same story. Somehow Danny Gonzales will need to find a way to stop the Sun Devils’ run game.
On the offensive side of the ball, Noah Fifita will more than likely need to have his best game of the season. ASU’s pass defense is the weakest spot on that side of the ball. Fifita will need to take of the ball and count on his receivers to make the plays they need to. It will need to be a “spread the love” type of game. Whether it is Kris Hutson, Chris Hunter, Luke Wysong, or even a running back out of the back field, they will all need to contribute.
In the end, this is a rivalry game and it can become unpredictable. Everything goes out the window. Records, season narratives, or even post season potential. As long as there is a football field, and the two teams playing are ASU and Arizona, everyone will be giving it their maximum efforts. I think the fact that the game is in Tempe, and with how well the Sun Devils run the ball, ASU will keep the Territorial Cup up North and will end the Wildcats’ win streak.
Brandon Combs — Arizona wins 35-24
It’s hate week and ASU stinks. Yes, they are 8-3 like Arizona. However, they struggled for some time against a bad Colorado team last weekend. They struggled against Baylor and a mid West Virginia team. Their only really….stand out win was against a Texas Tech that was without their stud QB and had their inexperienced back-up in. Not to mention that Jeff Sims is a turnover machine and hasn’t performed well when facing a defense like Arizona’s (see Utah). Throughout the season, ASU hasn’t run the ball all that well either. Last week, Raleek Brown had a breakout performance, but that isn’t shocking against the Buffs defense. That’d be the one part of their game to pay attention to since opposing teams have found success against Danny G’s defense running the ball.
With that, I still think Arizona pulls out another road win.
Brian Pedersen — Arizona wins 20-17
Since dropping back-to-back one-score games to really good teams midway through the season, Arizona has been more or less repeating history from 2023. For that to continue it has to win this one, which would make for consecutive victories in Tempe for the first time since 2009 and 2011.
Run games should decide this one, as ASU is really good on the ground and really good at stopping the run. Arizona has shown it can move the ball that way but has also struggled at times against mobile quarterbacks and powerful backs. Look for Seth Doege to be creative with his run calls, while Danny Gonzales should have a plan to minimize the rushing damage.
Where Arizona has the advantage is at QB. Jeff Sims is a walking turnover and is very error prone, while Noah Fifita has been tremendous on the road this season.
There will be a field goal attempt in the final three minutes that decides this one.
Season record
(straight up/against the spread)
Kim Doss (9-2/7-4)
Ezra Amacher (10-1/783)
Adam Green (8-3/6-5)
Brandon Combs (10-1/8-3)
Juan Serrano (9-2/7-4)
Brian Pedersen (8-3/5-6)
