Fall camps are well underway around the country and football is a mere weeks away. FCS teams near and far are beginning their journeys that will, hopefully, end with a spot in the playoffs. With only 24 of those positions available, the race is always a tight one and this year in particular it looks like it will be as tight as we’ve seen in some time. Who will be the ones left standing when the regular season ends and what might the bracket look like? Here’s our first, very early guess at it:
Predicted Top Eight Seeds
1. Montana
State
The Bobcats come into this season has heavy favorites to defend their crown. Montana State brings back essentially the entirety of its championship team from last fall save for a couple of pieces. Justin Lamson, Taco Dowler, Adam Jones and the gang appear ready to make a legitimate run at a repeat especially with head coach Brent Vigen still leading the charge. There’s lots of reasons to like this group and, barring any huge unforeseen setbacks, they should be the class of the Big Sky once more. There are a few minor question marks on the defensive side but MSU has proven time and time again it knows how to reload. Expect Montana State to be playing deep into December again and it should not come as a shock to anyone if they’re standing on that stage in Nashville for a second straight year when the dust settles.
2. South Dakota State
With North Dakota State no longer standing in the way, the expectation and pressure falls squarely on South Dakota State to be the new bully of the Missouri Valley and, in Dan Jackson’s second year, the Jacks should live up to that standard. Quarterback Chase Mason, if he can stay healthy, should be NFL-bound next spring. It was injuries to the star signal caller, though, that hampered this SDSU team for a good chunk of last season that ended in a second-round playoff exit. This year has a different outlook to it, however. Mason is back and he has a litany of weapons around him. Lofton O’Groske in specific should highlight a lethal offense and the defense is in line to be tough again as well. The push for a conference title, as always, will be a slog but if they live up to their potential, then the Jackrabbits should have that hardware well in hand come December.
3. Tarleton State
There was a lot of turnover in Stephenville over the offseason but the opportunity… and the demand… for a breakthrough season is still there. Tarleton State has risen like a bullet since joining the FCS and last year’s appearance in the quarterfinals was the deepest the Texans have gone as DI program. A gutting home loss in that round, though, has TSU and its following wanting more and they should be at the top of the UAC this year. The additions of big names like receiver B.J. Flemming, quarterback Braedyn Locke and defensive lineman Xavier Potts will certainly bolster this team. There isn’t a talent question at Tarleton, more so a question of when it will gel. If it does right out of the gates then there’s reason to put stock in the idea of the Texans making a run at the whole thing.
4. UC Davis
The Aggies have been on a crescendo to something special for several seasons and now they might finally arrive. Several standouts are back including a pair of first-team All-Big Sky performers in safety Rex Connors and receiver Samuel Gbatu Jr. on either side of the ball. Jordan Fisher continues to grow as a viable running back and the line play is as good as any. The one pressing question lies at quarterback after Caden Pinnick left for the FBS after a stellar freshman season. If anyone can replace him though, it’s former UC Davis quarterback-turned head coach Tim Plough. There is a certain level of trust that Plough has earned himself over his first two seasons for what he’s done. At the very least this should be a quarterfinal team again but the semis (or beyond) is certainly in the cards.
5. Montana
No matter what gets thrown Montana’s way, they are almost always a lock for a playoff spot and usually a top eight seed. This year the tides are really changing for the Griz, however. Bobby Kennedy takes over as head coach with a tough and unique task in front of him: erase the sour taste of last year’s bitter semifinal defeat while trying to somehow improve on what was still a very successful 13-2 run. Kennedy’s job will be made easier by the fact that he still has last year’s FCS passing leader in Keali’i Ah Yat and star running back Eli Gillman. Gillman is on pace to shatter UM’s all-time rushing yard mark and Ah Yat is only getting better as his career goes on. There are, admittedly, some real questions on defense but Montana has earned the benefit of the doubt when it comes to these sorts of unknowns. No matter who is calling the shots, it’s difficult to imagine this team not in the postseason mix and they should be sitting out Thanksgiving weekend too.
6. Youngstown State
There’s a lot of reason to believe in the Penguins this season. Fueled by a gut-wrenching playoff loss in the opening round last year and with the return of Walter Payton Award-winning quarterback Beau Brungard anything short of another playoff berth will be a major disappointment for YSU. Brungard is the centerpiece of a very talented offense and he plays behind one of the stronger lines in the country. The uncertainties lie on the defense and it’s the area where the team needs to improve the most. Youngstown State ended up hiring former Mercyhurst head coach Ryan Riemedio as their new defensive coordinator. If the offense can maintain its level of play and the defense can catch up suddenly this group becomes a real threat on the national scene.
7. Rhode Island
There isn’t a whole lot of reason to think that Rhode Island won’t run away with the CAA this year and the expectations are as high as they’ve been in quite a while. The two-time defending conference champions further witness the league dilute around them with the losses of Villanova and William & Mary and now it feels like there isn’t a whole of real challengers remaining. Pair in the fact that two of the team’s biggest playmakers in QB Devin Farrell and last year’s top FCS receiver Marquis Buchanan are back and what you’ve got is a Rams unit that should be playing for a top eight seed by November. If URI can’t take that next step now they may never do it.
8. North Dakota
North Dakota has been searching for a breakthrough for several years now and it feels like they got close last year. With Eric Schmidt now in year two and Jerry Kaminski coming back under center UND might finally get that breakout this fall. The Hawks have a distinct homefield advantage playing at the Alerus Center and, at least on paper, have the talent to be one of the top teams in the subdivision. The biggest issue they’ve faced is themselves but last season was certainly a glimpse of how close they are. Their losses came to teams like FBS Kansas State, Montana along with NDSU and SDSU and all of those were close. If Schmidt’s first season had them knocking on the door then his second might just have them kicking that door down.
Predicted First Round Matchups
Stony Brook at 9. Lehigh (Winner to North Dakota)
Billy Cosh is building something special at Stony Brook and right now we have the Seawolves in as the 24th and final team to make the field. They went 6-6 a year ago but also had three one-score losses in there. The CAA is just waiting for someone to climb the ladder and Stony Brook has the ingredients to be that someone. Then there’s Lehigh who, until proven otherwise, is still the top dog in the Patriot League. Yes, Villanova and William & Mary come in but the Mountain Hawks are still in off a perfect 12-0 regular season. Despite losing Kevin Cahill, they still look to run things as they bring back star running back Luke Yoder and quarterback Hayden Johnson. There might not be another bye week in Lower Saucon this year but Lehigh still is in line to return to the postseason.
Northern Arizona at 10. Stephen F. Austin (Winner to Rhode Island)
The Southland has turned itself into a bonafide power league in the FCS and Stephen F. Austin’s rise back to power has been a main reason why. SFA made tremendous strides last fall, nabbing the #7 overall seed and running to the quarterfinals with an 11-3 record. Yes, Sam Vidlak and Charles Demmings are gone but this is a unit that won’t lose its mojo that easily. Bugs Mortimer might be the most dangerous return man in the country and the defense is still incredibly talented. The other Lumberjacks… the ones from NAU… are also going to be strong. Ty Pennington is still quarterbacking the unit from Flagstaff and he’s got some pieces around him, too. Northern Arizona probably won’t be atop the Big Sky when the dust settles but they very well could be in the field regardless.
UT Martin at 11. Austin Peay (Winner to Youngstown State)
With Tennessee Tech no longer looming in the OVC, UT Martin is the frontrunner to win the conference in 2026 but admittedly it could be one of the weaker leagues. The Skyhawks, despite being led by longtime and accomplished head coach Jason Simpson, have a lot of unknowns but still look to be the favorite almost by default in their waning conference. Meanwhile, Austin Peay will find itself battling in a tough UAC but should find a way to break through. Chris Parson is a special talent under center and his staying with the Governors was one of the most notable moves… or non-moves… of the offseason. If they can maintain a solid team around him then they should make the field and probably even host a game.
Central Connecticut at 12. Villanova (Winner to Montana)
CCSU comes into this season as the back-to-back NEC champs and the Blue Devils will be the driver’s seat to win a third. They’ll have some real talent, especially on defense as they bring back star DB Chris Jean who logged 13 pass breakups and four picks last year. He and that defense have proven itself twice over now and it’s hard to imagine anyone, perhaps save Duquesne, challenging them for the top spot. Villanova, too, should be playoff-bound once more. The Wildcats made it to the semifinals for the first time since 2010 last year and, if they can get quarterback Pat McQuaide back for one more run, then they should make some real noise in their first year in the Patriot League. Guys like Ja’briel Mace and Isaiah Ragland are also back and Mark Ferrante is one of the top coaches in the FCS year in and year out. It would be a surprise if ‘Nova isn’t playing December ball again.
Lamar at 13. Tennessee Tech (Winner to UC Davis)
Tennessee Tech is the new kid on the block in the SoCon and, quite honestly, should win it right off the bat. Bobby Wilder has done nothing but build since he took over the Golden Eagles back in 2024 and last year the team took a big step in reaching the playoffs for the second time in program history. Now the sights are set even higher. TTU boasted one of the best defensive fronts last year and had a pretty lethal offense to boot and that shouldn’t change as they flip conferences. Lamar is also a sneaky good bunch, though, and will be in the thick of the Southland race again, too. The Cardinals also made the playoffs last fall behind a stout defense and excellent coach in Pete Rossomando. If the offense starts to click then watch out.
San Diego at 14. Illinois State (Winner to Tarleton State)
One of the biggest enigmas right now is Illinois State. After an incredible unseeded run to the national championship game last fall (a game they came agonizingly close to winning), the Redbirds are all over the place on folks’ Top 25 preseason ballots this summer. Almost all of that team is back including star linebacker Ty Niekamp and young breakout receiver Dylan Lord. The only parts that aren’t, though, are Daniel Sobkowicz and Tommy Rittenhouse and they may have been the most important pieces. ISU is still certainly good enough to get a bid but beyond that it’s a tough prediction to pin down. Across the aisle is a San Diego team that is looking to reclaim its throne in the Pioneer League. Drake has taken it the last three seasons but the Toreros might snap that streak this year after winning five straight to close out the 2025 campaign.
New Hampshire at 15. Yale (Winner to South Dakota State)
New Hampshire is in a peculiar spot in the CAA. As one of the few conference bluebloods remaining, the Wildcats should be able to win enough games in their league to be considered for a playoff berth but, at least recently, postseason trips have not been kind to UNH. 2024’s 41-10 first-round loss to UT Martin was followed up last year by an even more lopsided 41-3 loss at SDSU. All the Wildcats probably are is a first-round team but maybe Sean Goldrich can flip that narrative as the new head coach. Yale, though, proved it belonged last year as it made its playoff debut. The Ivy League champs are now headed up by last year’s Eddie Robinson Award winner in Kevin Cahill and they still have Dante Reno captaining the offense. The Bulldogs have the pieces to run it back and if they do, this is not a team anyone will want to see in the bracket.
Abilene Christian at 16. Southern Illinois (Winner to Montana State)
Abilene Christian never feels like it gets the respect it deserves (and maybe us having them as an unseeded team here is part of that) but the Wildcats are as tough an out as any lately. They’ve won at least a share of the UAC championship in each of the last two seasons and have won playoff games in each of those years as well. The conference will get tougher around them, though, and they’ve lost some key players this offseason. ACU ought to be in again but they may not host this time. Southern Illinois, however, is in a different boat. The Salukis have one more chance with star quarterback D.J. Williams and if he is healthy throughout the duration of the season, anything less than a playoff bid is a disappointment. Nick Hill is a proven winner and now his SIU team needs to back it up in an NDSU-less Missouri Valley.
Predicted First Four Out
South Dakota
Few teams have proven their ability to reload like South Dakota has over the last few seasons. This year’s task, though, is as tough as the Coyotes have faced. After just one season with Travis Johansen, USD is back to square one with a new coach in Matt Vizthum and now they will be without longtime quarterback Aidan Bouman to boot. A lot of last year’s production is gone, including running back L.J. Phillips who went for an FCS-best 1,921 yards on the ground last year. Losing those kinds of pieces is really hard to overcome and with a gauntlet of a Missouri Valley schedule in front of them, it feels like the ‘Yotes will be just on the outside looking in when the bell rings.
Idaho State
Much ado has been made about Idaho State this offseason and the hype train hasn’t been this big in Pocatello for a long, long time. The Bengals need to prove it on the field, though, because getting out of the Big Sky is no easy feat and it’s something they haven’t done in ages. Jordan Cooke is a strong quarterback and the receiving corps did get a nice boost with Chedon James coming back but offense alone won’t get it done out West. ISU looks like it should be right in the middle of the dogfight with teams like Northern Arizona and in-state rival Idaho this season but until they start actually winning games and showing it, it’s hard to pencil them in as a playoff team just yet. Can they live up to the unfamiliar pressure that’s been thrust upon them? We’ll find out soon enough.
Harvard
Harvard should be right in that Ivy League mix again this year but it might be harder for the conference to nab two bids again this time out. Jaden Craig is gone and that will certainly affect the offense. While senior running back Xaviah Bascon should help relieve some pressure from Dante Torres as he takes over the starting QB spot, the changes on that side of the ball paired with how the Crimson fizzled out at the end of last season make it hard to call them a playoff team right now. They don’t have the stability of Yale and Dartmouth will be right there chomping at their heels as well. They’ll beat one but not both of those teams and it will likely cost them another postseason appearance.
Furman
The rebuild has been on for a couple years at Furman and it could be reaching its crux in 2026. The Paladins have a decision to make at quarterback. Will it be Michigan transfer Jake Garcia or redshirt sophomore Connor Ackerley? Either way it’s a tough road ahead in a SoCon that notoriously cannibalizes itself every season. That makes non-conference games against the likes of Richmond and defending Celebration Bowl champion South Carolina State all the more important. This is a good Furman squad but it seems like they’ll need wins against both the Spiders and the Bulldogs early on to set themselves up for an at-large bid. That’s a tall ask for a team still trying to recapture its identity.
