Selection Sunday is here, and the Syracuse Orange are not exactly roaring into May.
The men have lost back-to-back games with a couple of subpar second-halfs, while the women have lost two of three and were crushed by 10 in their last game.
But both teams put together solid regular seasons and should have themselves in play for a seed, so let’s take a look at how each team’s candidacy stacks up against the competition as we await tonight’s reveal.
The women’s selection show is set for 9 PM on ESPN U,
to be followed directly by the men’s show at 9:30.
Women’s bracketology — top resumes
- Northwestern — RPI 1, SOS 1, vs. TOP 5 4-0, vs. TOP 10 3-2, vs. TOP 20 4-0, vs. 21+ 4-1
- North Carolina — RPI 2, SOS 9, vs. TOP 5 0-1, vs. TOP 10 2-0, vs. TOP 20 5-0, vs. 21+ 9-0
- Maryland — RPI 3, SOS 4, vs. TOP 5 0-2, vs. TOP 10 3-1, vs. TOP 20 3-0, vs. 21+ 10-0
- Navy — RPI 4, SOS 29, vs. TOP 5 0-0, vs. TOP 10 1-0, vs. TOP 20 3-0, vs. 21+ 14-1
- Stony Brook — RPI 5, SOS 28, vs. TOP 5 0-1, vs. TOP 10 1-1, vs. TOP 20 2-0, vs. 21+ 14-0
- Syracuse — RPI 6, SOS 7, vs. TOP 5 1-3, vs. TOP 10 0-0, vs. TOP 20 1-2, vs. 21+ 11-0
- Johns Hopkins — RPI 7, SOS 6, vs. TOP 5 1-3, vs. TOP 10 1-0, vs. TOP 20 4-0, vs. 21+ 8-1
- Michigan — RPI 8, SOS 2, vs. TOP 5 1-2, vs. TOP 10 2-1, vs. TOP 20 5-2, vs. 21+ 4-1
- Colorado — RPI 9, SOS 14, vs. TOP 5 1-1, vs. TOP 10 1-2, vs. TOP 20 2-0, vs. 21+ 10-0
- Florida — RPI 10, SOS 18, vs. TOP 5 0-1, vs. TOP 10 1-2, vs. TOP 20 2-0, vs. 21+ 12-0
- Stanford — RPI 11, SOS 15, vs. TOP 5 0-2, vs. TOP 10 1-0, vs. TOP 20 3-1, vs. 21+ 11-1
- Army — RPI 12, SOS 17, vs. TOP 5 0-3, vs. TOP 10 0-1, vs. TOP 20 2-0, vs. 21+ 12-0
The Orange women certainly have the feel of a team in line for a seed, the main question is where in line do they fall?
At a quick glance, ‘Cuse has among the best combinations of RPI (6) and SOS (7) of any team, so that’s a good place to start. They also have their road win over the No. 1 RPI team in Northwestern as the crown jewel of their resume.
The main drawback for the Orange, unfortunately, is that a handful of their wins over solid programs like Virginia, Loyola and Notre Dame have not held up to the RPI test with all of those schools and others falling outside the RPI Top 20. As a result, SU only has two wins over teams inside the Top 20, Northwestern and Yale.
That will be their biggest challenge of comparison as a number of the other teams in contention for seeds have more, and in some cases significantly more, Top 20 wins on their resumes. For example, Hopkins has comparable computer numbers and six Top 20 wins, three times as many as ‘Cuse. Michigan has the same story, but with eight wins of that variety.
It feels like Northwestern, North Carolina and Maryland are likely in line for the top three (first round bye) seeds. After that, I think I would give Hopkins and Michigan the edge over the Orange because they both have so many more top wins according to RPI.
I think ‘Cuse falls into the 6-8 range alongside Navy, Stony Brook and possibly Colorado. Navy and Stony Brook have superior RPIs, but played significantly weaker schedules. Colorado is a little closer in SOS but with a lower RPI, and shares the Northwestern road win with SU. All three have slightly more Top 20 wins than ‘Cuse.
I personally feel the Orange’s SOS should carry some weight here, especially with Navy and Stony Brook being upwards of 30 in that department. Navy also has an outside Top 20 loss.
Men’s bracketology — top resumes
- Notre Dame — RPI 1, SOS 6, vs. TOP 5 2-0, vs. TOP 10 2-2, vs. TOP 20 3-0, vs. 21+ 3-0
- North Carolina — RPI 2, SOS 1, vs. TOP 5 0-2, vs. TOP 10 5-1, vs. TOP 20 3-0, vs. 21+ 4-0
- Princeton — RPI 3, SOS 7, vs. TOP 5 1-1, vs. TOP 10 1-1, vs. TOP 20 5-0, vs. 21+ 5-0
- Richmond — RPI 4, SOS 16, vs. TOP 5 1-1, vs. TOP 10 1-0, vs. TOP 20 3-0, vs. 21+ 9-0
- Cornell — RPI 5, SOS 10, vs. TOP 5 1-1, vs. TOP 10 1-1, vs. TOP 20 3-1, vs. 21+ 6-0
- Syracuse — RPI 6, SOS 1, vs. TOP 5 0-4, vs. TOP 10 3-0, vs. TOP 20 4-1, vs. 21+ 4-0
- Virginia — RPI 7, SOS 3, vs. TOP 5 2-2, vs. TOP 10 1-2, vs. TOP 20 0-2, vs. 21+ 6-0
- Johns Hopkins — RPI 8, SOS 9, vs. TOP 5 0-1, vs. TOP 10 2-2, vs. TOP 20 3-1, vs. 21+ 4-1
- Penn State — RPI 9, SOS 5, vs. TOP 5 2-1, vs. TOP 10 1-1, vs. TOP 20 4-0, vs. 21+ 2-3
- Duke — RPI 10, SOS 17, vs. TOP 5 1-2, vs. TOP 10 0-2, vs. TOP 20 1-0, vs. 21+ 7-0
- Army — RPI 11, SOS 28, vs. TOP 5 0-1, vs. TOP 10 0-0, vs. TOP 20 2-0, vs. 21+ 10-2
- Yale — RPI 12, SOS 11, vs. TOP 5 1-2, vs. TOP 10 0-1, vs. TOP 20 1-2, vs. 21+ 7-0
- Georgetown — RPI 13, SOS 22, vs. TOP 5 0-2, vs. TOP 10 0-1, vs. TOP 20 2-1, vs. 21+ 8-0
- Harvard — RPI 14, SOS 12, vs. TOP 5 0-4, vs. TOP 10 1-0, vs. TOP 20 1-1, vs. 21+ 7-0
- Maryland — RPI 15, SOS 4, vs. TOP 5 0-2, vs. TOP 10 1-4, vs. TOP 20 2-0, vs. 21+ 4-0
The question for the men is exactly the same, but it’s a little more complicated because some of today’s games will directly impact the seeds for tonight’s selection show. The ACC and Ivy League finals will cause movement depending on what combination of winners we have among Cornell, Princeton, Virginia and North Carolina.
As for the Orange, they’ve slipped slightly to No. 6 in RPI and are tied with UNC for the top spot in SOS. They have seven Top 20 wins, which compares favorably with most teams. But SU’s problem is that they’re 0-4 against the RPI Top 5. They’ve beaten most of the second-tier teams they’ve played this season, but they haven’t beaten a top-flight opponent all year, which most everybody else in the seed conversation has.
Notre Dame, Princeton and North Carolina have been ahead of ‘Cuse in the seeding conversation the whole time, and will certainly remain there. For weeks, the Orange will holding onto that fourth seed in most people’s minds, but these back-to-back losses while others teams have been adding to their resumes have pushed SU down the list.
At this point, it seems like Richmond has moved ahead of them, and Cornell possibly has, too, with the now-superior RPI. If the Big Red and Virginia both win today, I think it’s very possible they could both end up ahead and push ‘Cuse down to the 7 seed. If Princeton and UNC both win, that could move them back up to 6 or maybe even 5 depending on what happens with everyone’s RPIs.
