Game notes
- Time and date: Saturday, November 22 at 12:00 p.m. ET
- Network: ESPN2
- Location: Gerald J. Ford Stadium — Dallas, TX
- Spread: SMU (-4.5)
- Over/under: 50.5
- All-time series: SMU leads, 3-0
- Last meeting: SMU 34, Louisville 27 — October 5, 2024
- Current streak: SMU, 3 (1983-24)
Setting the scene
The ACC title race is headed toward the finish line. The Louisville Cardinals (7-3, 4-3 ACC) were in prime position two weeks as a top 15 team boasting a 7-1 record, but consecutive losses to Cal and Clemson
by the skin of the Cardinals’ teeth eliminated them from ACC contention and the College Football Playoff.
The SMU Mustangs (7-3, 5-1 ACC) are still alive for a second-straight ACC Championship appearance, but they need some assistance. The least they can do is win out, and SMU has done that with regularity since joining the conference. SMU’s all-time ACC record is 13-1, with a 2024 road victory at Louisville included in that win total.
Louisville Cardinals outlook
Louisville lacked style points during its 7-1 start, and those constant close finishes ultimately got back at the Cardinals in the last two weeks. Dropping a home game to California in overtime put the Cardinals’ ACC hopes on life support, and a mistake-riddled fourth quarter at home against Clemson proved to be the dagger.
Interestingly enough, all three of Louisville’s losses transpired in its own venue, and the Cardinals have shown more firepower on the road. They’re 3-0 in road environments with wins over Pittsburgh, Miami (FL), and Virginia Tech, looking to continue this success Saturday in Dallas.
Louisville’s offense is a highly-consistent unit that managed between 19 and 40 points in all nine games against FBS competition — hitting the 24 to 34 range six times. In other words, you know what you’re getting out of this offense. Quarterback Miller Moss usually runs the show as the ACC’s seventh-leading passer, equipped with 11 touchdowns compared to seven interceptions. However, he is questionable for this game, potentially thrusting redshirt freshman backup Deuce Adams for his first collegiate start — entering with four career passing attempts.
Whether it’s Moss or Adams, the No. 1 priority is involving Chris Bell. Bell is one of the most dangerous receivers in college football, having a knack for getting open and making spectacular plays in an open field. His 871 receiving yards rank second in the ACC, and he’ll aim to get back to his scoring ways and snap a 4-game streak without a touchdown against the Mustangs’ 135th-ranked passing defense. Caullin Lacy is another highly-utilized target Moss will rely on, in an offense which should favor the air on Saturday.
Louisville definitely can run the ball, as its lead backs Isaac Brown and Keyjuan Brown average 8.6 and 7.3 yards per carry, respectively. But the Cardinals will be without both explosive backs on The Hilltop this Saturday, likely turning to Duke Watson as the No. 1 option.
The contagious injury bug extends to the defense where star outside linebacker Antonio Watts (6.5 tackles for loss, three interceptions, two fumble recoveries) is also ruled out for the SMU game. This balanced unit still contains plenty of firepower, entering this game ranked 16th in total defense, 23rd in run defense, and 26th in passing defense. Pitt is the only team to generate more than 24 points on Louisville in regulation all year, and it only managed 27 (with a defensive touchdown included).
Louisville’s defense intercepts passes at a high rate, securing 12 picks on the year, with cornerback Jabari Mack and safety JoJo Evans as notable ballhawks on the back end. Outside linebacker TJ Quinn, the team’s leading tackler, can also thrive in the short coverage game, allowing this defense to be volatile and dangerous.
SMU Mustangs outlook
SMU recovered nicely from a 2-2 start, winning five of its last six — with its lone defeat coming on a last-second 50-yard field goal at Wake Forest. The Mustangs essentially need either a Georgia Tech loss to Pittsburgh or Virginia Tech loss to Virginia, combined with wins over Louisville and Cal, to punch a ticket to Charlotte for the conference title game.
For the first time since 2018, SMU doesn’t feature a top 15 scoring offense. In fact, the Mustangs are ranked 40th at 32.2 points per game. But things are trending in the right direction as the regular season comes to a close, posting a season-high 45 points on the road at Boston College — one game after generating the highest output Miami (FL)’s had seen all season.
Quarterback Kevin Jennings remains the anchor of this offense. He is 11th in the FBS with 2,810 passing yards and tied for 15th with 21 touchdown strikes. Jennings has embodied a warrior mentality all year long, continuing to deliver impressive 300-yard performances despite battling a season-long ankle injury, which has noticeably hampered his mobility (354 rushing yards in 2024 vs. 25 in 2025). SMU’s offense can take another step by limiting interceptions, tossing at least one in eight of 10 outings.
But overall, this passing attack moves swimmingly. A three-headed monster of Jordan Hudson, Romello Brinson, and Yamir Knight lead the charge, each exhibiting between 37 and 42 receptions on the year for the Mustangs. Hudson has particularly been on a tear as of late, contributing three 100-yard showings in his last four starts — including an 11-catch, 136-yard performance to upset Miami.
SMU is ranked 106th nationally in rushing yards. Some of it is by design, considering the lack of attempts. But the Mustangs didn’t even produce a 30-yard rusher in two of their last three games. They’ll look to ride the momentum of T.J. Harden, fresh off a season-high 130 yards at Boston College, in order to jump-start that element of the offense.
On the other side of the ball, nobody causes more havoc than the SMU defense. The Mustangs reign supreme in turnovers collected with 26, and star free safety Ahmaad Moses has made his presence felt with five interceptions. The takeaways are often pressure based, and the Mustangs are sixth nationally in sacks at 3.2 per game, led by 7.5 from defensive end Isaiah Smith — who leads the ACC with 16 tackles for loss.
Owning the second-to-last ranked passing defense is one issue this unit suffers, giving up 285 yards per game through the air. But their inability to get stops over the top is often masked by the negative plays and turnovers created by the pass rush and defensive backs.
Prediction
Louisville’s defense will show up and make life difficult for SMU’s offense, which is still looking to find consistency. The Cardinals are adept at limiting teams in both the run and pass, but their greatest issue in Dallas will be the shorthanded nature of their offense. Operating without running backs Isaac Brown and Keyjuan Brown, and potentially starting quarterback Miller Moss, create a nightmare scenario on the road, and SMU’s opportunistic defense should capitalize.
SMU rides a 10-game win streak at Gerald J. Ford Stadium, and Kevin Jennings and his talented receiver corps should inflict more damage than an injury-riddled Louisville offense in this matchup of 7-3 ACC teams.
Prediction: SMU 24, Louisville 17
