Illinois beat Southern on Monday night to cruise to its 10th win of the season. The Illini finished 2025 on a high note and officially wrapped up their challenging non-conference schedule.
Illinois is tied
for the most wins entering the new year under head coach Brad Underwood with 10 and a program record three Quad 1 wins. The 2023-24 Elite Eight team also had 10 wins at the turn of the year but owned just one Quad 1 victory at that point.
Back on Oct. 28, I projected how Illinois would perform game by game during the 2025–26 season. Below is an updated projection for the remainder of the year.
January 3rd vs. Penn State (Philadelphia) – Win
January 8th vs. Rutgers – Win
January 11th @ Iowa – Loss
January 14th @ Northwestern – Win
January 17th vs. Minnesota – Win
January 21st vs. Washington – Win
January 24th @ Purdue – Loss
January 29th vs. Washington – Win
February 1st @ Nebraska – Loss
February 4th vs. Northwestern – Win
February 7th @ Michigan State – Loss
February 10th vs. Wisconsin – Win
February 15th vs. Indiana – Win
February 18th @ USC – Win
February 21st @ UCLA – Loss
February 27th vs. Michigan – Loss
March 3rd vs. Oregon – Win
March 8th @ Maryland – Win
I project Illinois to finish the regular season at 22-9 overall, one game better than my preseason prediction. This record would give the Illini five Quad 1 wins (with Northwestern potentially slipping to Quad 2) entering the Big Ten Tournament in Chicago and should be good enough for a top four finish in the conference at 13-7.
KenPom and Bart Torvik currently project Illinois to finish 23-8 overall and 14-6 in Big Ten play. Eight regular-season losses would almost certainly earn the Illini a top four seed in the NCAA Tournament and provide a strong opportunity to reach the second weekend for the second time in three years.
Winning the league will be difficult with Michigan and Purdue also in the mix, but finishing in the top four should remain the expectation. If Illinois secures a protected top four seed on Selection Sunday, there is every reason to believe the Illini can make at least a Sweet 16 run this March.
