On Thursday night, the Iowa Hawkeyes travel to Ames to take on the number 4 ranked Iowa State Cyclones. The Cyclones are coming off one of the greatest wins in school history, smacking former number 1
ranked Purdue at Mackey Arena in front of a stunned national audience and crowd. Iowa State has climbed to number 2 on KenPom and sport the 5th best offense and 2nd best defense. They have been flat out dominant, winning by an average score of 95 to 65, and don’t appear to have any holes as of this point in the year.
Iowa State has been good, if not great, over the last few seasons under TJ Otzelberger. They climbed into the top 5 last year before ultimately sliding in the middle to late portion of conference play. They went to the Sweet Sixteen the prior year and have belonged in the top 15 for most of the last few years.
So then why has this year felt so different? Well, Iowa State’s offense is doing something that fans have not seen in quite some time – They are shooting the leather off the basketball. The Cyclones are a SCORCHING 43.8% from behind the 3-point line through 9 games, which is easily the best percentage since the 2017 season where guys with the last names of Thomas, Mitrou-Long, Morris, and Jackson were taking potshots at the rim from deep.
Part of the reason that Iowa State has been so great from behind the arc this season is partly because I believe their shot selection has greatly improved. For example, below are two charts that summarize Iowa State’s shooting by location on the floor. In the left chart, you’ll see that Iowa State is shooting 50% from behind the 3-point line in the corners and 41.7% above the break. The chart on the right indicates the frequency of shot type by zone, meaning that 9.4% of the time, Iowa State shoots a corner 3.
The Cyclones are not only getting great shots, they’re taking the right one’s in the right areas. The NCAA average frequency for shots around the rim is 31.4%. Iowa State is an entire 5 percentage points higher! They are getting whatever they want around the rim and when they do have opportunities, they’re capitalizing at an almost 75% clip, which 12 percentage points higher than D-1 average.
But how does this impact 3-point shooting? Iowa State’s ability to get paint touches with any combination of Lipsey/Jefferson/Toure has greatly improved the shot selection for guys like Milan Momcilovic, who is able to take advantage of open opportunities to great effect. Previously, Iowa State’s offense has looked and felt moreso like a ball dominant guard or wing needs to be dribbling in circles and attempting to create for others (Ex: Jones, Gilbert, Brockington). This season, Iowa State’s assists/field goals made has increased slightly, mostly due to the chemistry and selflessness of the three primary workhorses, Lipsey, Momcilovic, and Jefferson, who sport the best 3 player Net Rating in all of college basketball.
Also, it doesn’t exactly hurt when you have guys making shots like this:
Or this:
Meanwhile, Iowa has enjoyed the fruits of a relatively soft schedule to this point, citing wins over Xavier (KP: 84), Ole Miss (54) and Maryland (99). Their only blemish was a stumble against Michigan State, who pounded Iowa on the glass and in the paint until the game was firmly in hand.
New Coach Ben McCollum sports a slow, elegant style of basketball predicated on ball movement and player motion. Iowa plays at a pace somewhere between that of a snail and DMV worker and has no problem walking the ball up the floor on each and every possession. Their possession count is the slowest among major conference schools and trail only Houston as the slowest offensive team. Dating back to last year when he guided Drake to the NCAA Tournament, McCollum has only lost 5 total times and has won at every level he has coached at.
Part of the reason for McCollum’s success at Drake last season and Iowa this year has been the emergent of Bennett Stirtz, the Senior Point Guard McCollum took with him. Stirtz is a dynamic ball handler and floor general who can create shots at all three levels and score from anywhere. The Liberty, MO native is averaging 19 points on 12 shots each game and shoots it from deep at a 45% make rate. He has a quick release and can exploit mismatches to devastating effect.
Stirtz will present problems similar to what Braden Smith at Purdue posed for Iowa State. The real difference between the two, however, is their support casts. While Smith has the ability to dish to Fletcher Loyer, Oscar Cluff, or Trey Kaufman-Renn, Stirtz relies on Tavion Banks (Drake), Alvaro Folgueiras (Robert Morris), or Cam Manyawu (Drake). In Iowa’s lone loss to Michigan State, the Spartans keyed on Stirtz and forced ANYONE else to beat them. Stirtz finished with 14 points on 4-10 shooting, but no other Iowa player finished in double figures. Iowa will need massive contributions from their supporting cast if they even want to consider pulling an upset. Undoubtedly, Iowa State will attempt to get the ball out of Stirtz’s hands as often as possible and pray that Iowa’s bench crew misses.
Michigan State also chose to bully Iowa in the paint and on the boards, out-rebounding Iowa 37-18. MSU’s size and physicality really bothered Iowa enroute to a blowout win for Sparty, who also dominated points in the paint 34-18.
Michigan State’s gameplan was simple and I think Iowa State’s will be similar. A steady diet of Jefferson and Buchanan’s big-to-big passing could wreak havoc on Iowa’s defense and I think we see a decrease in Iowa State’s 3-point volume as a result. The Cyclones could see a mean regression in their 3-point shooting (hate to break it to you, but they aren’t shooting 44% from 3 all year), but maximizing paint touches, playing off of two feet in the lane, and crashing the glass will be keys to Iowa State’s offensive success. Defensively, keying on Stirtz and getting the ball out of his hands early and often could lead to good things for the Clones. I would suspect that Otz and company attempt to speed up Iowa’s offense to get possession count up closer to 70, which is where the Cyclones usually fall.
KenPom predicts a 13-point Iowa State win, but in a rivalry game, you can never be too certain…
