In the vast majority of preseason predictions, the Tigers were the trendy pick to win a weak AL Central. No one paid much attention to the Guardians, but you think we would learn by now not to underestimate the plucky Cleveland outfit following year after year of outperforming their projections to end up atop the heap in their division. More than a third of the way into the season, the Guardians are once again defying the odds with a one-game lead over the upstart White Sox for first and 11.5 games
ahead of the last-place Tigers.
This is despite José Ramírez getting off to a slow start by his lofty standards, though he still has eight home runs, 20 stolen bases, and more walks than strikeouts. Instead, it’s a quartet of players 25 and younger who have been carrying the load. They have to love what they’ve been seeing from rookie first-round picks Travis Bazzana and Chase DeLauter, the former posting a 139 wRC+ and the latter at 120. Brayan Rocchio and Angel Martínez have been defensive wizards at shortstop and left field, respectively, while also surprisingly performing above average at the plate. All told, they comprise a disciplined lineup that is hard to strike out, boasting the best strikeout-to-walk ratio of any offense in the AL. Locking things down is closer Cade Smith, on pace to be the most valuable reliever in MLB for the third straight year by fWAR having already amassed 20 saves.
The Yankees should count themselves lucky that they will possibly dodge three of the Guardians’ most impactful players. Martínez is considered day-to-day with a foot sprain. Steven Kwan was placed on the Bereavement/Family Medical Emergency List last Thursday. Both are considered questionable for this week’s series. Most importantly, the Yankees will not have to face standout rookie starter Parker Messick after he pitched against the Red Sox on Saturday, the 25-year-old southpaw sitting at 6-1 with a 2.21 ERA, 3.02 FIP, and 74 strikeouts in 12 starts totaling 69.1 innings.
They nonetheless still face a stern test over the next three days, so let’s preview the probable starting pitching matchups.
Tuesday: Cam Schlittler vs. Joey Cantillo (7:05 pm EDT)
Cam Schlittler continues his march toward the AL Cy Young award in just his second big league season, the 25-year-old righty leading all AL starters with his 1.50 ERA and 2.9 fWAR. He has pitched at least five innings and given up three or fewer runs in all 12 of his starts so far, and his starts have become appointment viewing much like fellow rotation-mate and mentor Gerrit Cole. He pitches with extreme confidence to throw the fastball over 90-percent of the time, but that’s an overly simplistic evaluation considering each of the four-seamer, sinker, and cutter behave as three distinct pitches when you consider movement and Schlittler’s intent when throwing each. In 12 starts, Schlittler is 7-2 with a 1.50 ERA (274 ERA+), 1.91 FIP, and 81 strikeouts in 72 innings.
Yankees fans might remember Joey Cantillo from his ill-fated relief appearance in Game 1 of the 2024 ALCS. Cantillo entered in the third in relief of Alex Cobb and walked three batters and chucked four wild pitches while recording just one out to gift the Yankees a 4-0 lead. He has performed decently in his new role as a full-time starter, making up for the lack of fastball velocity (91.8 mph average) with elite 96th percentile extension that makes the fastball seemingly jump out of the hand. However, it is in the off-speed department that Cantillo really excels. The changeup comes in almost 12 mph slower that the fastball with excellent deception, leading to a .162 batting average against, while the curveball exhibits the fourth-most vertical drop vs. average in MLB, meaning hitters are slugging a measly .211. In 12 starts, Cantillo is 4-2 with 3.57 ERA (115 ERA+), 4.51 FIP, and 52 strikeouts in 58 innings.
Wednesday: Gerrit Cole vs. Gavin Williams (7:05 pm EDT)
Gerrit Cole dazzled to the tune of ten strikeouts across 6.2 scoreless innings last time out, and we can’t wait to see what he has in store for his third start. He and the pitching coaches have been closely monitoring his pitch counts and have taken an understandably conservative approach given how long his Tommy John layoff was, Cole throwing 72 and 79 pitches in his first two starts. His fastball has its old zip back, sitting 96 and touching 99, Cole in particular showing impressive command of the pitch at the bottom of the strike zone. There also appears to be a concerted focus on developing his knuckle curve and changeup into secondaries he can trust as much as the slider. Cole has yet to surrender a run in two starts and 12.2 innings, sporting a 12:3 strikeout-to-walk ratio and .143 batting average against.
Gavin Williams established himself as a rotation stalwart for the Guardians in his third season in the bigs, going 12-5 with a 3.06 ERA in 31 starts totaling 167.2 innings last year. He got the best of the Yankees in his lone start against them in 2025, giving up two runs on seven hits with eight strikeouts in 6.1 innings of 6-4 Guardians win last April. The 6-foot-6 righty looks to have taken a significant step in his development over the offseason, with marked improvements in his strikeouts, walks, and home runs. Like Cantillo, Williams has elite extension on his delivery, but is far more of a power pitcher than his teammate. His fastball averages 97 mph, though it is interesting to note that he throws the four-seamer, sweeper, and curveball in roughly equal proportions, and the uncertainty this creates for the hitter likely underlies Williams placing in the 86th percentile or better in strikeout, whiff, and chase rates. In 12 starts, Williams is 8-3 with a 3.07 ERA (134 ERA+), 3.32 FIP, and 88 strikeouts in 76.1 innings.
Thursday: Carlos Rodón vs. Slade Cecconi (1:35 pm EDT)
After a pair of rocky outings to open his injury-delayed campaign, Carlos Rodón has looked much sharper the last two times out, giving up just one run in each. The whiffs, chase, and strikeouts are down, though interestingly Rodón appears to have exchanged them for soft contact, placing in the 90th percentile or better in hard-hit and ground ball rate. As such, he is trending toward career best marks in expected batting average, expected slugging, and expected wOBA on contact, though I am sure he would love to recover most if not all of his swing and miss while reining in the walks as well. In four starts, Rodón is 1-2 with a 3.32 ERA (126 ERA+), 3.87 FIP, and 20 strikeouts in 19 innings.
The Guardians acquired Slade Cecconi in the trade that sent Josh Naylor to the Diamondbacks prior to the start of the 2025 season, and he went 7-7 in 23 starts with a 4.30 ERA in and 109 strikeouts in 130 innings in his debut season with Cleveland. The Yankees scored two runs on five hits off him in a 4-0 win last June — his lone start against the Bombers in his career. He’s similar to Schlittler in that he throws his four-seamer, sinker, and cutter a combined 76.7-percent of the time, but relies way more on horizontal movement and deception as opposed to Schlittler’s dominant velocity and command. He likely represents the best matchup for the Yankees of the three Cleveland starters that they will face, pitching more to contact whereas Cantillo tries to beat you by changing speeds and Williams tries to beat you with high velocity. In 12 starts, Cecconi is 3-5 with a 5.25 ERA (78 ERA+), 4.47 FIP, and 50 strikeouts in 61.2 innings.
