Super Bowl 2026 preview: 12 predictions for Seahawks vs. Patriots

Happy Super Bowl Sunday, Seattle Seahawks fans!

We’re going to do something a little different for Super Bowl 60. Usually I give you a bold prediction, Seahawks offense and defense predictions, opposition

prediction, and the game prediction. I’ll switch it up for the Super Bowl in a way that is at least adjacent to prop bets, and we’re more than doubling the predictions from five to 12. Before we get into that, let’s review my NFC Championship predictions!

Bold prediction: Cooper Kupp scores his first Seahawks home touchdown

Yes he did!

Seahawks offense prediction: Kenneth Walker clears 100 scrimmage yards again

Yes he did!

Seahawks defense prediction: Finally, Matthew Stafford gets sacked

Yes he did!

Rams prediction: Colby Parkinson has his own revenge game in mind

That drop sure was critical. I said he’d score a touchdown and he did not.

Game prediction: The Seahawks are going to the Super Bowl

I even said the score would be 31-24, which was really close to what happened.

First points: Andy Borregales field goal

It doesn’t take much to get in field goal range under the current kickoff rules, although Seattle is typically not persuaded into kicking for deliberate touchbacks. We may see the Patriots throw the first punch, hit a few explosives off play-action boundary throws and passes into the flat, only for the drive to stall in the red zone. Borregales will put the Patriots on the board first.

I know in the staff predictions I said the Seahawks would win 24-14. I’m changing that to 27-17 to give both teams a little extra something and to make bettors sweat that over/under total. Borregales has impressed as a rookie kicker after the Patriots had a horror show in recent years at the position. Seattle has not allowed their opponents to score first since the Indianapolis Colts game, which the Seahawks kicked their way to victory anyway.

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First Seahawks touchdown: Jaxon Smith-Njigba reception

The NFL’s Offensive Player of the Year led the Seahawks with 10 receiving touchdowns in the regular season and has since added to his tally in each playoff game. In other words, he fittingly has 12, but I don’t want him to finish with 12.

New England ranks 31st by DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers, which doesn’t mean this is on Christian Gonzalez, but instead the defensive scheme in which Gonzalez doesn’t travel with receivers. Smith-Njigba has been able to get the better of Derek Stingley Jr. and other top corners, so I’m not worried about his impact. I think the Seahawks counter New England’s early field goal with a JSN touchdown in the high red zone.

First turnover: Drake Maye lost fumble

The MVP runner-up has fumbled a lot in this postseason. Of his 15 sacks taken over three playoff games, five have resulted in fumbles, while he lost another fumble on a running play. Maybe the weather was a factor against the Houston Texans, but he coughed it up a couple of times in better weather against the Chargers.

By no means is Maye a turnover machine, but with the struggles up front I believe Maye may get a blindside pressure on the side of rookie tackle/guard duo Will Campbell and Jared Wilson that results in a fumble he is unable to recover. Don’t be surprised if it’s not an edge, but instead a blitzer who takes advantage of a miscommunication up front.

First Patriots touchdown: Hunter Henry reception

Henry is New England’s second-leading receiver behind Stefon Diggs but leads the team in touchdowns. He began the Patriots’ postseason with a dagger touchdown grab against the Los Angeles Chargers to put the game out of reach.

Seattle has had season-long problems stopping tight ends at a high level, ranking a modest 16th by DVOA. Drake Maye is another prolific play-action quarterback and Henry is good at exploiting voids in the middle of the field and running out routes.

I’m mostly confident the Seahawks secondary can hold up against New England’s receivers, although Josh Jobe needs to be at his best against Stefon Diggs, Kayshon Boutte, etc. at the line of scrimmage given his struggles when he doesn’t disrupt the route off the line. I remain a little hesitant about what the Seahawks can do to contain Henry, who’s a steady player and has been for a long time.

Longest pass play: Rashid Shaheed 30+ yards

I’m hopeful that the Seahawks have finally unlocked Shaheed down the field just off of that opening drive NFC Championship Game. The Patriots disguise their coverages a lot, which could be a worry for Sam Darnold and company given their struggles at times against disguise-heavy defenses, but generally speaking they like to play a single-high safety. That should provide some favorable looks for the Seahawks, and I’m curious to see how often Shaheed lines up in the slot against fellow return specialist Marcus Jones, who’s given up eight touchdowns on the year.

Number of Sam Darnold turnovers: 1

This is obviously a story that will never go away. Darnold led the NFL in turnovers with 20 in the regular season. It was a legitimate problem at times this year. He’s also been insanely productive even with the turnovers, plus he’s been clean the last three games. What more do you want?

So just to spice things up, he’s going to give the ball up and possibly in an advantageous spot for the Patriots. I’m thinking a tipped interception is coming on a ball forced into tight coverage. New England was surprisingly light on taking the ball away in the regular season, but they got five off of the Houston Texans and Jarrett Stidham gave it up twice in the AFC Championship Game.

Seattle is a high-turnover team playing clean football at the right time, whereas Mike Vrabel’s group is a low-takeaway team that is getting more at the time. Something’s gotta give.

Incidentally, while not a fully fledged prediction, I think Drake throws one interception to Coby Bryant but it’s either going to be zero or one, not multiple.

Kenneth Walker’s total scrimmage yards: Over 100 again

It’s been three straight weeks of K9 dominating defenses on the ground and/or the air. He’s in tough on the ground against a stingy Patriots defense, which can clog the interior as well as any team in the NFL. Where the Patriots can be exploited is on the outside, particularly if Seattle can use the heavy personnel packages effectively and seal the edges against the likes of Anfernee Jennings, Harold Landry, and K’Lavon Chaisson.

If Walker is stymied on the ground, I believe he’ll make up for it as a receiving back. Klint Kubiak has clearly made it a point of emphasis to get Walker in space more and running actual routes instead of being just a checkdown option. New England was middle of the pack in yards allowed to running backs, but I trust Walker against just about anyone in the league when he as room to operate in the open field.

Let’s go with about 70 yards rushing for K9 and another 40 through the air.

Number of Patriots explosive runs allowed: 1

The Patriots rank sixth in rushing yards and attempts but somehow just 20th in rushing DVOA. We know the Seahawks run defense is second to none, ranking the best in explosive run rate allowed. If we define an explosive run as a designed carry (aka no scrambles) that gains at least 12 yards (As FTN Fantasy does), the Seahawks have only allowed a 12+ yard rush once this postseason.

New England’s rushing attack is worth respecting, but they’re definitely not the best the Seahawks have faced. This matchup should favor the Seahawks and their ability to dominate in the trenches without stacking the boxes. While the Rams have had some rushing success running out of heavy personnel, that’s pretty much it. Seattle thrives off of its ability to not stack the box yet stuff the run.

Rhamondre Stevenson can be pretty powerful and even great run defenses can buckle on occasion, so I’ll give New England one long run but no more than that.

Number of sacks allowed by Seahawks: 2

Sam Darnold had a sub-6% sack rate in the regular season but he’s definitely been taking more sacks since Week 13. The Patriots similarly lack a superstar on the edges, but they’ve blitzed heavily this postseason and they also have interior pressure for days with Christian Barmore and Milton Williams. It’s the interior pressure that’s harder to deal with and escape from, and that may be where the sacks come from. There will be a fair amount of pressure coming at Sam, but I trust him to get the ball out on time consistently and accept that he’s got to eat it on occasion just to avoid making a bad play worse. In some respects, some of the sacks he’s taken recently are “good sacks” given the alternative of throwing a dangerous pass.

Number of sacks allowed by Patriots: 4

Mike Macdonald with two weeks to prepare is going to find ways to get the pass rush juice restarted after being muted (again) versus the Los Angeles Rams. As I mentioned before, the Patriots offensive line has rookies Will Campbell and Jared Wilson at tackle and guard, respectively. Garrett Bradbury, Michael Onwenu, and Morgan Moses make up center through right side and are bare minimum competent. Macdonald should go out of his way to run games up front and test those rookies, who’ve been put through some tough tests this postseason and generally not passed them.

The Seahawks haven’t played a quarterback with an above-average sack rate since Cam Ward in November, so this is a relief to play a QB who’s been brought down at a high rate throughout the year. I’d say the biggest matchup in Seattle’s favor by far is their defensive line over the Pats OL. ESPN’s Jeff Saturday noted that 11 of the 15 sacks against Drake Maye in the playoffs have come with a four-man rush.

Is there a need to blitz? Not really, as long as the Patriots can’t cope. Either four-man rush standard or show a crowded line and drop out and sim pressure with four. If the Patriots are forced into being one-dimensional then I think it’ll open up opportunities for more sacks. Wouldn’t it be awesome if Nick Emmanwori got one?

Final scoring drive: Drake Maye touchdown run

Maye is a very good athlete who can scramble and hurt teams with designed runs. Seattle has to be watchful of getting too far up the field and creating lanes for Drake to take off on quarterback draws. As a scrambler, Maye does a lot of work with his legs and the Seahawks have been somewhat prone to allowing big pass plays off of scrambles. Leonard Williams and Byron Murphy II and Jarran Reed may have something to say to Maye in terms of finding rush lanes inside, but it’s way more important for Tank Lawrence, Uchenna Nwosu, Derick Hall, and Boye Mafe to have edge discipline and not create escape hatches. I think Seattle’s lack of a consistently great finisher may hurt them a bit in this instance, and Maye will use his legs to score.

Of course, if the Patriots have the final say and the final score is 27-17, that means the game is already decided and the Seahawks will be preparing their celebrations.