The Toronto Blue Jays went from finish last in the AL East (74-88) in 2024 to being one inning away from a World Series title last season.
The Jays won the division (94-68) with a tiebreaker over the Yankees before securing the American League crown in 2025. The Orioles, after finishing 75-87 last season, can look directly at their division opponent for a template to follow in 2026.
Additions and Subtractions
The Blue Jays have leveled up in the MLB payroll standings over the last few seasons. According to Spotrac, Toronto is
one of only five teams with a tax payroll that exceeds $300 million. The Jays are being assessed a 30% tax for exceeding the tax threshold for the second consecutive season.
The Orioles took some heat for not landing one of the available frontline starters. The Jays cannot receive the same criticism after inking free agent Dylan Cease to a seven-year, $210 million deal. Is that a deal you would have liked to see Mike Elias pull the trigger on? It doesn’t matter now. Cease will be suiting up for a division opponent.
Cease will join a talented rotation that features former Oriole Kevin Gausman, 22-year-old phenom Trey Yesavage, future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer, Cy-Young winner Shane Bieber, newcomer Cody Ponce (three years, $30-million), and former All-Star José Berríos. The unit will not include former Blue Jay Chris Bassitt who signed a one-year deal with the O’s.
The bullpen will still include almost-Oriole Jeff Hoffman, but it also gained a boost from the signing of Tyler Rogers. Rogers posted a 1.98 ERA over 81 games between the Giants and Mets last year. Bassitt provided valuable relief for the Jays in the postseason, but Hoffman failed to convert a championship save.
Similar to Baltimore, Toronto’s crowded rotation could provide some help to a bullpen facing some uncertainty. However, Bieber will begin the season on the IL, and the Jays are expected to slow play Yesavage to some extent.
Toronto’s biggest loss of the offseason came when fan favorite Bo Bichette signed with the Mets. New York gave the 28-year-old $126 million over three years to play on the left side of the infield.
The Jays inked an intriguing international product to help offset the loss of Bichette. Corner infielder Kazuma Okamoto signed a four-year, $60-million deal that does not include opt-outs. Okamoto arrived with significant power but some concerns regarding his ability to make contact in the big leagues.
The Japanese slugger will look to provide a boost to an offense led by Vlad Guerrero. Unfortunately, the team expects to be without former Oriole Anthony Santander for a majority of the season. Santander signed a five year, $92.5 million deal ahead of last season, but he hit .175 over 194 at bats last year. Santander underwent shoulder surgery in February.
Projections
PECOTA: 89-73 (Win AL East)
FanGraphs: 85-77 (Second in AL East)
I’m not breaking any news when I say the AL East is a tough division. The Jays nearly beat the Dodgers in the World Series last season, but a repeat division title is hardly a sure thing. The Yankees are expected to be a factor, and the Red Sox have a real chance at another Wild Card appearance.
Toronto and New York both won 94 games last season. Unfortunately, both teams featured winning records against the Orioles. A contending Baltimore could bring the magic number in the AL East down to the low 90s.
The Jays look far better than their last place club from 2024, but last year proved that records can be volatile from year to year. Toronto should be considered a legitimate postseason contender, but its ceiling could hinge upon guys like Cease, Yokomato, Yesavage and Hoffman reaching their full potential.
