Intro
September is a month of contradictions. The waning angle of the sun portends the approach of winter, cold and unforgiving. Many of the fields have been harvested and plowed under and the die has been cast for this season. Some profited, others did not. Attention turns to the next season, whether growing or balling. Except, in contradictory fashion, hope for today has not quite been extinguished. Our Cardinals are only 5.5 games out of the playoff chase. They’ve had worse positions and won championships,
so hope remains. Plus, fortune smiles and one of the teams the Cardinals are chasing has come to town, with their own hope fading like the sun, but not yet extinguished.
The Cardinals come in 70-71, having achieved the perfect angular momentum rate to circle the .500 mark without escaping its gravity, nor capitulating to its black hole (yet). The Giants on the other hand, come in a slightly better position (71-69), but mixed trend. They were well over .500 at one point, then they fell off for a while, falling below .500. They’ve won ten of eleven to claw back just ahead of the Cardinals, though.
The Pitching Matchups (projected)
Friday – Seymour vs McGreevy @ 7:15p (all times Central)
Saturday – Verlander vs Pallante @ 6:15p
Sunday – TBD vs Gray @ 1:15p
Quick peek at the pitching/run prevention
On Friday, we should see 26-year-old righty Carson Seymour. His uniform# is 77, if that tells you anything. He will be making his second MLB start, so ignore that 4.74/7.36 ERA/FIP as too volatile. His MiLB stats profile a pitcher in the 25-26% K-rate range, but that hasn’t translated to MLB yet. The last 3 years, he has been a high walk guy (>10%), but does have a 50% GB rate. He has a total of 11 MLB IP, with 3 HR given up (thus the elevated FIP).
On Saturday, now 204-year-old right hander Justin Verlander takes the mound. He carries a 4.29 ERA but a 3.73 FIP. He is no longer a big K guy, as he carries a 21.2% K rate and 8% walk rate. His limited success this year is due to suppressing HR (7.3% FB:HR rate), which is not unusual for the park he normally pitches in. Busch will play similarly for him.
On Sunday, although it is TBD, I expect see 28-year-old righty Logan Webb. He carries a 3.17 ERA/2.67 FIP. He has an excellent 26% K rate, and a low 5% walk rate. In my mind, a K-BB rate of 15% is good. He exceeds 20%. That is great. Who starts Sunday would seem likely to be determined by how the first two games of the series sort out. They play at home on Monday night, so long travel and no day off are part of the consideration here.
The Giants bullpen overall is ordinary, although Rodriguez and his 33% K rate looks overwhelming. While the Giants overall run prevention has been quite good this year (.5 runs better than STL), it is in spite of a defense that is -20 OAA. Almost the mirror opposite of the Cardinals.
A peek at the offense
The Giants are ordinary offensively, comparable to the Cardinals (99 team wRC+ as compared to 97 for the home team). Chapman and Devers are their best hitters. Adames is a bit above average at 108 wRC+. That ballpark probably doesn’t help him much. Unlike the Cardinals, they can put together a line-up of average or better hitters top to bottom.
Overall
Two teams fighting to stave off elimination might produce some interesting results. Will anyone be there to see it?
Cardinal updates
- Pages off the IL, Prieto back to Memphis.
- Doyle starts Saturday at Palm Beach.
- Contreras’ suspension reduced to 4 games, so he misses this series plus 1 game.
