We welcomed suckers esteemed customers into the SnakePit Casino to place bets before the season. Sunday’s game in Mexico City marked the one-sixth point of the schedule, so it seems appropriate to check in. So let’s see who has made a fast start out of the gates, and who is still looking around, wondering what all that galloping is about. Below, you’ll find details of the various lines, the projected figure so far, and whether it’s over or under the anticipated line. You will also see figures in brackets,
which are the total amount bet over and under the line in question. All figures are through the completion of game #27, played on April 26.
The lines
- D-backs Wins: 80.5 (2070-1200) – 90, OVER
- Lovullo ejections: 2.5 (1490-0) – 0, UNDER
- MLB Debuts: 4.5 (2500-0) – 6, OVER
All told, the season so far is going better than expected. There’s one series left in April, and the team can finish no worse than .500. Given how the schedule looked coming in, we would have taken that. Though it certainly helped we faced the Mets and Phillies, who have been far worse than expected. Maybe this is why Torey has been calm so far: I wonder if the introduction of ABS will impact ejections? There were 174 last year, but going into play Sunday, there had been only 18. Just one debutant for the Diamondbacks as well this year. But what there may be lacking in quantity, has been made up for in quality, that one being Jose Fernandez. Plenty of time yet, and we are still on pace for over
- Carroll Hits – 138.5 (850-0) – 150, OVER
- Carroll SB – 33.5 (900-0) – 24, UNDER
- Carroll HR – 22.5 (1200-600) – 18, UNDER
- Carroll RBI – 80.5 (0-0) – 102, OVER
- Carroll Runs – 100.5 (600-0) – 102, OVER
“In Corbin we trust,” went the punters, wagering on his overs by a total margin just shy of 6:1. So far, it has been a mixed bag. Carroll is ahead in three of the five lines, but that includes his RBI line, on which nobody wagered. The other four are splits: his power hasn’t been there yet (perhaps the hamate bone thing has some impact after all?) and he hasn’t been as active on the base-paths as was predicted. But the hits have been dropping in, and he has been driving in more runs than expected. That may be due to him no longer hitting leadoff. It’s a spot where he got the majority of his playing time last year, but he has yet to play there this season.
- Marte Hits – 139.5 (390-0) – 150, OVER
- Marte HR – 27.5 (300-900), 24, UNDER
- Marte RBI – 79.5 (250-300), 60, UNDER
- Marte BA – .280 (600-300), .238, UNDER
- Marte Runs – 89.5 (0-0), 96, OVER
Not so much optimism on the Ketel front: a very even split, with the overs just having an edge at 1540-1500. The resulting bets are very slightly favoring the consumer at this point, mostly due to Marte’s home-runs being short of the line to date. But he’s basically one swing away from crossing the line, so I wouldn’t start booking that cruise to Tahiti just yet. The biggest issue might be Ketel’s batting average: .238 would represent a career low for our All-Star. However, his BABIP is also at a career low, which would suggest regression in a positive manner will end up helping this number improve.
- Perdomo HR – 17.5 (1200-600) – 6, UNDER
- Perdomo RBI – 68.5 (2400-0) – 36, UNDER
- Perdomo BA – .275 (1500-0) – .250, UNDER
- Perdomo Runs – 80.5 (900-0) – 66, UNDER
[Rubs hands enthusiastically] Well, the kindest thing we can say is that it’s early days yet for Gerry. The action here was even more heavily optimistic than for Carroll, overs getting your money at a 10:1 ratio. The results simply have not been there so far, with just a single home-run for Perdomo. He currently has the same number both there and in RBI, as Jorge Barrosa and Tim Tawa. Some of it may be a lower than usual BABIP, but his exit velocity is also down more than two mph compared to last season. With a total value of 0.4 bWAR after the first month, we may have to begin thinking it is at least possible last year was indeed a flash in the pan.
- Kelly Wins -10.5 (450-750) – 6, UNDER
- Gallen Wins – 11.5 (850-600) – 6, UNDER
- Gallen K’s – 170.5 (0-150), 102, UNDER
- Pfaadt Wins – 10 (1200-300), 0, UNDER
- Saves leader: 14.5 (1050-1800), 42, OVER
While Arizona’s rotation hasn’t been good (25th by starter ERA), it’s more who hasn’t been good. Take out Michael Soroka and Eduardo Rodriguez, and you get 17 starts with just three wins and an ERA of 5.91. Kelly was obviously slowed by his injury, but his last outing was terrible and his peripherals are bad. Meanwhile, Pfaadt is now in the bullpen, and long relief offers very limited chances for a W. Gallen has been okay though and deserves more than a single victory. Paul Sewald is already almost halfway to the line: Arizona’s last 30-save season was 2018, the largely forgotten Brad Boxberger. But A.J. Puk should be back within a month, and one wonders how many more save opportunities will be coming Paul’s way after that happens.
The standings
I’ve done the usual transcription from the comments on the original post into a spreadsheet. I am only human (I know, difficult to believe…), so I may well have swapped out lines, such as changing an over into an under. So please check your own lines and let me know if the tallies below don’t match your own calculations. Happy to fix any errors. However, please note that claiming “Oops! I meant to bet the under for Geraldo Perdomo home-runs, not the over” will be viewed less than favorably by SnakePit Casino staff. 🙂
- smurf1000 $900
- Hannibal4467 $900
- Xerostomia $500
- Imstillhungry95 $300
- EdTR99 $300
- RickDD $0
- Sirhute $0
- Diamondhacks -$300
- 1AZfan1 -$300
- joecb1991 -$300
- BTBaseball -$300
- DbacksEurope -$300
- ercil -$580
- Mike Verr -$600
- Snake_Bitten -$900
- justin27 -$900
- Sighborg -$900
- Makakilo -$900
- gzimmerm -$900
- Smurf-1000 -$900
smurf1000 and Hannibal4467 lead out of the gate, both being correct in four out of their five bets. But, in general, profit is hard to come by, with only five of the twenty entrants being ahead. At the other end, half a dozen are well underwater, winning just one of five bets to date. This all adds up to a nice little profit for the house of $4,200 SnakePit Dollars so far. But still: very early days and a lot could certainly change between now and the end of the season in September. Tune in again in another month or so, for an update.
