Before the Kansas City Chiefs‘ Week 9 road game against the Buffalo Bills, all of our Arrowhead Pride panelists thought the Chiefs would win. As a group, we expected a 33-26 win. That prediction had 28 points of error compared to Kansas City’s 28-21 loss. Our readers expected that more than we did. About one in five thought the Bills would send the Chiefs home with a defeat.
In Week 11, the Chiefs face the Denver Broncos on Empower Field at Mile High. According to FanDuel Sportsbook, Kansas City is
favored by 3.5 points.
Let’s see what the staff — and our readers — think about the matchup.
Nate Christensen (@natech32)
I seriously feel like having Josh Simmons back swings this game. If the Chiefs were rolling out Jaylon Moore at left tackle, I don’t think they’d be able to protect against Denver’s pass rush. We saw what it did to Kansas City last year in Arrowhead against Wanya Morris and Kingsley Suamataia at left tackle. Moore is better, but Nik Bonitto has also leveled up to being a top-10 edge rusher.
With Simmons, the Chiefs at least have one edge protected. I still expect some rough moments for the offense. Denver’s pass rush is elite — and its secondary can play tight man coverage, which is something the Chiefs’ receivers struggle against.
Still, Denver’s offense is terrible; I don’t trust it to score at all. It is about an average rushing team, but it has had one of the worst passing games all season. Bo Nix has regressed from last year in terms of accuracy and footwork.
Considering the stakes of this game, I expect a focused Kansas City effort.
Chiefs 20, Broncos 14
John Dixon (@Arrowheadphones)
I think the Denver defense is going to be the biggest challenge the Kansas City offense has faced all season. So we should be grateful that this game is happening in Week 11 rather than Week 2 — and hopeful that Josh Simmons will be back to form. I also think the Chiefs’ defense will be loaded for bear — or in this case, horse. If that’s the case, I think the road team will have a significant edge.
I’d predict Kansas City will run away with this one, but I don’t think Andy Reid will let that happen. He’s not going to want to give the Broncos any additional motivation when the teams meet again in Week 17 — or in Week 19, 20 or 21.
Chiefs 20, Broncos 10
Maurice Elston (@MrMauriceElston)
Sunday’s matchup against the Broncos might be the biggest regular-season game of Patrick Mahomes’ career. Denver enters 8-2 — and firmly in control of the AFC West — and if the Chiefs want any realistic chance to challenge for the division, it has to start with a win here. A loss would almost certainly shut the door on another AFC West title.
Andy Reid’s track record coming off a bye speaks for itself, and the return of Josh Simmons at left tackle should help settle the offensive line. Denver’s defensive front will create pressure, but Kansas City only needs to slow it down enough for Mahomes to operate — and it should be able to do that.
The Broncos’ offense has been far less impressive. While most of its wins have come from late Bo Nix rallies, it hasn’t played well. It’s hard to see Denver putting up enough points against a disciplined Chiefs defense.
It won’t be a shootout, but it likely won’t be a defensive slog either. Kansas City simply has more answers on both sides of the ball.
Chiefs 28, Broncos 17
Mark Gunnels (@MarkAGunnels)
The return of Josh Simmons can’t be understated. It feels like a distant memory now, but when he was on the field, the rookie from Ohio State was playing at an All-Pro level. Now, it is fair to wonder if he’ll be rusty — but I believe that after a couple of drives, he’ll be just fine.
Denver will sorely miss Patrick Surtain II as the Chiefs trot out their full complement of pass catchers. As long as Mahomes has time, he should be able to pick apart this secondary. The offensive line will have its hands full against this stout defensive line.
On the other side — with J.K. Dobbins out — the Broncos will lean heavily on rookie back RJ Harvey. The plan should be to stop the run and force Bo Nix into obvious passing situations. I have a feeling Steve Spagnuolo is going to frustrate the second-year quarterback.
The Chiefs get the win — and they’re back in the AFC West race.
Chiefs 27, Broncos 17
Caleb James (@CJScoobs)
The Chiefs desperately need a win — and in some ways, so do the Broncos. The Chiefs are the team in need of a win to keep pace in the playoff hunt, but with their unprecedented success and experience in big games, there has been a sense of calm from the team (and the fan base) this week.
The Broncos are on pace for their best season since they won the Super Bowl in 2015, and they do have a couple of wins over the Chiefs in that time — but this is by far the biggest game they have played in a decade.
It is a chance to deliver a near-knockout punch to their division rival and keep themselves in the driver’s seat for first place in the AFC. Unfortunately for them, their offense is unraveling at the worst possible time — and this is something the Chiefs should be able to capitalize on.
If the defense can find a way to force Nix into turnovers and keep the Broncos’ defense off the field, then the Chiefs should win the game.
The Broncos’ defense is elite, but with possible injuries in the secondary (and linebackers out), the Chiefs could have a chance to attack the middle of the field and perimeter with speed. Xavier Worthy could be on deck for a big game.
If the Chiefs can win this game, then the pressure is firmly back on the rest of the AFC.
Chiefs 23, Broncos 15
Rocky Magaña (@RockyMagana)
Jaylon Moore was a champ for filling in, but going against this Broncos pass rush, the Chiefs need all hands on deck — which means Josh Simmons starting at left tackle if he is ready to go. Even if Simmons can go, the Chiefs will need to shift protection to help against Nik Bonitto, who is on a tear this season. The Broncos are also good at generating pressure up the middle, so it will be important for Kingsley Suamataia to hold up in one-on-one scenarios.
It’s not going to take 30 points to beat the Broncos and mediocre quarterback Bo Nix. I think the Chiefs’ defense matches up well against Denver’s offense. It’s all going to come down to whether the Chiefs can move the ball enough to score a couple of touchdowns. Whichever team makes it to 20 wins this game.
Seeing as how the Chiefs are in a must-win situation, playing against a division rival and coming off the bye (with Andy Reid as their coach), I’d say the odds are in their favor.
Chiefs 20, Denver 13
Jared Sapp (@TrumanChief)
I think we are going to see an Andy Reid post-bye week special. Part of that is due to Denver’s unfortunate health situation. I think the absence of running back J.K. Dobbins will affect quarterback Bo Nix’s game more than missing Isiah Pacheco will limit Patrick Mahomes. Also, the Broncos were already without the league’s best cornerback: Patrick Surtain II. Now, a scary cancer diagnosis has Denver sidelined underrated inside linebacker Alex Singleton — who had missed only four defensive snaps through 10 games.
So the Chiefs should be able to compensate for Denver’s excellent pass rush and find matchups to exploit against some of the Broncos’ depth players. On defense, I expect Steve Spagnuolo to rebound from a frustrating game in Buffalo and have a solid plan against Nix, who is coming off two very underwhelming performances.
I respect Denver’s defense enough not to predict a high-scoring affair, but the Chiefs clearly know the position in which their record has placed them. We will see a very motivated and prepared team on Sunday.
Chiefs 24, Broncos 13
Matt Stagner (@stagdsp)
After a disappointing outcome against Buffalo, this game takes on new significance for your Chiefs. Sitting at 5-4 coming off their bye week, everything is still in play for Kansas City — but it probably needs to come out of Denver with a win. The Broncos are off to a strangely good start, with their typically strong defense (including a monster pass rush) and up-and-down offense. I’m not sure what to make of Bo Nix and the offense. They have good pass protection, but lead the league in penalties. They win ugly.
I feel like we know exactly what to make of this Chiefs team: when it is “on,” the opponent doesn’t matter. But when it is not, the games have been close — and the good guys have lost more close games than usual. So if having their starting tackles and receivers on the field looks like we know it can, they’ll put up points on Denver. This is a huge week for Xavier Worthy and Rashee Rice to give Mahomes good, quick, open looks that allow him to get the ball out of his hands on time. The Chiefs’ defense needs to force a turnover or two and get off the field. I expect that it can — and it will. The playoff hunt starts in earnest on Sunday afternoon.
Chiefs 31, Broncos 21
With their predictions aggregated, our panelists expect the Chiefs to win 24-15.
What do you think?
2025 Standings
| TW | LW | Staffer | W | L | Pct | Err |
| 1 | 1 | Maurice Elston | 6 | 3 | 0.6667 | 23.8 |
| 2 | 2 | Jared Sapp | 6 | 3 | 0.6667 | 25.1 |
| 3 | 3 | Rocky Magaña | 5 | 4 | 0.5556 | 22.9 |
| 4 | 4 | Caleb James | 5 | 4 | 0.5556 | 24.9 |
| 5 | 6 | Mark Gunnels | 5 | 4 | 0.5556 | 26.0 |
| 6 | 5 | John Dixon | 5 | 4 | 0.5556 | 26.7 |
| 7 | 7 | Matt Stagner | 5 | 4 | 0.5556 | 29.6 |
| 8 | 8 | Nate Christensen | 4 | 5 | 0.4444 | 25.1 |
In Week 9, Nate Christensen’s call for a 27-24 Kansas City win was closer than anyone else’s pick, with 20 points of error. Jared Sapp’s 28-24 prediction was right behind, missing by 22 total points.
To calculate a prediction’s points of error, the differences between the prediction and the actual score in point spread, home team score and away team score are added together. For example, a prediction calls for a 17-10 Chiefs win. They end up winning 16-10, so there were two points of error: the point spread was off by one point, the Kansas City score missed by one point and the opponent’s score was predicted correctly. But if the Chiefs lose the game 17-10, there were 28 points of error in the prediction: the point spread was off by 14 (the difference between +7 and -7) and both scores missed by 7.
