My article prepping for the New England Patriots game praised them for accomplishing something that sounds simpler than we know it to be: Winning the games you should. Yes there is substance to New England thriving
on lesser competition, but that’s not something that should be taken for granted (see: Week 6 and Week 10 results).
On paper, there’s zero reason to consider the Buffalo Bills’ game against the Cleveland Browns as anything other than one that’s “should win.” Let’s take a look at some data quick.
Cleveland Browns +/- Chart
For those of you new to these charts, red highlights on the offense side (left) are bad. Red highlights on the defense side (right) are good. Easy enough, right? Let’s do a few notes on these then.
Cleveland Browns’ numbers on offense
On the offense, the only thing NOT lit up red is field goal percentage which is:
- Actually a special teams stat, not offense, and;
- Baaaaaaaaaaarely on the positive side of the ledger.
Yards per game on the other hand is astronomically far away from the league mean. Only two teams are worse. And when it comes to yards per play, zero teams are worse. What’s worse, the run game or the pass game? They’re roughly equally shabby, ranking 29th and 31st in the league respectively per play. Interception rate and sack rate are 27th and 23rd in the league respectively.
Let’s cut to the chase though. The most important stat is the score, and the Brown are a hair more than a touchdown per game worse than league average. That’s “good” for a tie with the New Orleans Saints for 30th in the league. Those two teams beat out the Tennessee Titans by a single point scored this season. But hey, at least they’re not the Las Vegas Raiders, right?
Well, maybe Raiders fans can say “at least we’re not the Browns, right?” Cleveland has somehow managed 16 more drives than the Raiders this year and when it comes to points per drive, no one is worse than the Browns at 1.30.
Cleveland Browns’ numbers on defense
The defense is all red highlights, which is what you want to see if you’re a Browns fan. On a per-play basis, they’re sixth-best against the run and eighth against the pass. No one has a better sack percentage than Cleveland. There’s a lot of really good stuff in there, but let’s cut to the chase.
Somehow they’re still allowing half a point per game more than league average. That’s not terrible mind you, but it does mean that despite some impressive numbers in contextual stats, the Browns are an average defense when it comes to stopping scores. They’re better on a per-drive basis, coming in at sixth best (tied with the Jacksonville Jaguars). There’s a legitimate argument to label them as a “good” defense.
Like the offense, they have the highest number of drives faced in the league. That means that while they may allow fairly few points per drive, allowing more drives per game means more points than you might expect.
Buffalo Bills +/- Chart
We’ll keep this a little shorter since I assume most readers here are familiar with the Buffalo Bills. I’ll do some quick comparisons too. The Bills’ yards-per-play measures are both fantastic. Passing yards per game is 13th in the league, but that’s due to their emphasis on the run game. Per play Josh Allen is slingin’ it just fine, with the fifth-highest rate in the league.
But points are what matter, and the +6.2 per game is “merely” third best behind the Detroit Lions and the Los Angeles Rams. Per drive they’re second with only the Rams higher. Put differently you have a good defense in the Browns looking to contain one of the league’s elite offenses. Two notes on this:
- The Bills are this elite despite having several games that can only be described as a “stinker” on offense;
- This unfortunately does mean that the Bills could have another “stinker” waiting for us.
On defense there’s a bit of a mirage. Per game, the Bills actually allow fewer points than the Browns. Per drive though, while Cleveland’s defense is tied for sixth-best in the NFL with points per drive, the Bills are 23rd in the league with points per drive. Not quite “bad” by my rule of four, but drifting too close for comfort. While that does mean we’re seeing a fringe “bad” defense for the Bills, they’re facing a dreadful offense in the Browns.
On paper, the stats back up what you’d expect when a 10-4 team is set to face off against a 3-11 team. Everything points to a lopsided affair, now the Bills just need to show it.
