In order to earn their first winning record since 2022, the New England Patriots have to do something no team has managed to accomplish this season: beat the Buffalo Bills. The two AFC East rivals will
square off on Sunday night
In order to find out more about the Bills, we reached out to Matt Byham of Pats Pulpit’s sister site Buffalo Rumblings — the SB Nation community for all things Bills. Here is what he told us about the upcoming game and what to expect from New England’s Week 5 opponent.
1. The Bills’ pass defense has given up the fewest explosives in the NFL. How much of that is due to their opponents and how much is due to their execution? Are there any weak spots?
It’s all about that run defense, or lack thereof. When they do surrender so many explosive run plays, there’s no need for the opponent to turn to the pass game to find them. It’s a bit interesting to me, given the Bills don’t have a ton of elite players at defensive back. They’ve yet to even see their first-round draft pick, cornerback Maxwell Hairston, take the field against an NFL opponent. He’s still recovering from a knee injury suffered early in training camp. The only reason I believe things have played out this way is because their opponents are willing to take what’s given to them, and boy has it been given.
You asked about weak spots. Well, there are a lot, and I could turn this into a 2,000-word op-ed about what I see as problematic on defense. The simple answer is that every level of the defense has a glaring weakness. On the defensive line, only Joey Bosa has played to or above expectations through four games. At linebacker, the biggest weakness is about availability. Bernard, though undersized, is elite. But there’s so much turnover next to him that it’s difficult to build on-field chemistry. Christian Benford and nickel cornerback Taron Johnson prop up an otherwise suspect group of defensive backs. Yes, that group giving up the fewest explosive plays.
Our team at Buffalo Rumblings was just discussing how little sense the Bills make defensively. When’s the last time you remember a defense giving up more yards in the run game than to opposing passing attacks? Yet here we are, living it in 2025.
2. Josh Allen’s average depth of target has plummeted from just under nine yards the past two seasons to 7.7 through four games. It’s still early, but has that been tied more to his personnel or a stylistic change in the reigning MVP’s game?
To my way of thinking, it’s all of that and more, at least on certain levels. While true that the Bills don’t roster a traditional WR1, they field a room full of guys capable of stepping up when the moment requires it. There isn’t one player WR, TE, or otherwise who possesses all the traits of the NFL’s best pass catchers — instead each play key roles while having a full understanding of each and every position on the offense for any given play. Offensive coordinator Joe Brady demands his players understand the system conceptually because at any point they could be asked to line up somewhere that’s not traditionally their role.
Take Week 1, where Buffalo pulled off a 15-point comeback that began with under five minutes to play in regulation. There wasn’t a whole lot working downfield, with Allen instead checking down to plus-yardage targets. Once they began that surge, Allen began making opportunities for those around him, calling his shot downfield to receivers like Joshua Palmer and others.
Defenses are doing all they can to take away the deep, downfield options for Allen, but in crunch time he’s still able to find them. Much of that is due to Allen’s growth as a quarterback, where he’s now willing to take what’s open instead of forcing heroics in moments that don’t demand them.
Some might say opposing defenses have made their beds and must live with the consequences. Selling out to stop or slow Allen, at least downfield, has benefited running back James Cook. After signing a lucrative contract extension this summer, all Cook has done is shown that he might still be underpaid (of course, it takes at least five offensive linemen for a RB to tango with a defense). Essentially, the league has allowed Cook to become the playmaker Allen lacked when Diggs was shipped off to the Houston Texans. They obviously play very different roles, but their importance to the offense is nearly identical.
Allen doesn’t have to do everything on every down now, not evening having to survive to find a demanding Diggs downfield. Instead, he can hand off the football to Cook, who’s proven to be a far more complete running back than anyone predicted. So instead of having to complete a pass to keep the clock running, a hand-off guarantees it, and defenses have struggled to counter Cook’s elite vision.
Allen’s game has become zen-like, akin to a tiger. There’s a deadly patience to his attack.
3. Only J.K. Dobbins has more explosive runs than James Cook, and Josh Allen has a running back’s skill set to thrive on read options and designed keepers. Have teams done anything to slow down their diverse run game?
Nope. By and large, defenses have not been able to stop Buffalo’s run attack. Now, there are of course instances where they’ll stuff a play after seeing it numerous times, or finding the odds in their favor after enduring so many runs plays in succession. As a play caller, Brady also isn’t afraid to run the same play designs multiple times in a game, or even during a drive. That frustrates me about Brady, but I know there’s a method to such madness (let’s see if I can dive deeper into that later in our conversation).
There’s no secret the Bills want to run the ball, and to do so early. It’s an interesting development for a team that boasts Josh Allen at quarterback, but it’s working so far. Allen hasn’t even had to make a ton of magic happen with his legs, instead saving those moments for late in games where defenses are likely tired and his scrambling causes the most damage.
Something’s going to give Sunday night in a matchup where Buffalo nets 160-plus rushing yards per game versus the Patriots’ run defense that allows just north of 80 yards per game.
4. The Bills have been without two of their top defenders in DT Ed Oliver and LB Matt Milano. How has Buffalo adjusted without them? And do you think either will play on Sunday?
It hasn’t gone well in terms of run defense. Oliver is a difficult player to replace simply because he’s not a typical defensive tackle. Right now, they’re relying on two rookies to help fill Oliver’s void, those being Deone Walker and T.J. Sanders. Now, both have played decently well considering the four-game rookie sample, and that’s especially true of Walker. He was projected to play the one-tech role, but instead he’s proven to be a true force on passing downs. Big number 96 (all 6’7”, 331 pounds of him) is someone to watch for Sunday night.
As for Milano? He’s one of a kind, a true lightning rod as a linebacker. The trouble is that he’s always injured. That’s allowed linebacker Dorian Williams to get valuable reps since the start of last season. Williams played exceptionally in 2024, but hasn’t found the same success in four game this season. Worse yet is that Williams now has a knee injury that will cause him to miss at least Week 5.
The hope is that Milano can and does play, and remains healthy throughout the game at least. Barring any of that happening, that leaves the likes of Shaq Thompson, Joe Andreessen, and a very green Jimmy Ciarlo lining up next to Terrel Bernard — and trying to replace Milano. If that comes to pass, I suspect the Patriots test Buffalo’s run defense early and often. That may be true regardless of Milano’s status.
5. The Patriots are currently listed as 8.5-point underdogs. How can New England pull off the upset? If they can’t, what did the Bills do to keep them in check?
First off, let me thank you for not asking me to predict the score. I see this game being played very tight, where Buffalo may struggled to pull away against an opponent hell-bent on making them pay for their run D troubles. There’s also the Stefon Diggs angle. He’s going to be amped up and ready to go in his first trip back to Highmark Stadium since the infamous trade.
So, how could the Patriots pull off the upset? First, they’d have to completely shut down the Bills’ run game, including keeping Josh Allen and his legs behind the line of scrimmage. Next, they’d have to create pressure only with their D-line, forcing Allen into now-uncharacteristic mistakes. Just look at the early footage from Buffalo’s Week 4 game against the New Orleans Saints for an example.
When earlier you asked about defensive adjustments, I actually see something on offense being done to offset the defensive struggles. Everyone paying attention understands the Bills can’t stop anyone’s run offense.
To counter that, it’s pretty clear to me that Buffalo has specific objectives on offense. The move is to methodically march down the field with long drives that eat up a ton of clock. That, in turn, forces their opponents to abandon the run game in favor of a quick-strike passing attack while trying to play “catch up.”
That’s allowed the Bills to better-diagnose plays on passing downs, leading to turnovers. As such, if New England can avoid falling into a TD hole, they’ll be able continually bully Buffalo in the run game.
Oh there is one other key: Win the turnover battle. Buffalo hasn’t lost the turnover battle in 26 consecutive games, dating back to Week 18 of the 2023 NFL season. The Bills are well-coached and constantly coached on punching the ball out in all scenarios. I’m willing to bet Mike Vrabel knows this, and has haunted Rhamondre Stevens’ dreams all week.
Teams need to win both the turnover battle and the time-of-possession battle to limit the damage done by Josh Allen and James Cook. If Buffalo wins, then New England fell prey to the Bills’ run game and the defense flustered and confused Maye enough to force at least one costly turnover at the worst time.
