It’s been an up and down season so far for the St. Louis Cardinals. It’s entirely reasonable to expect that it will be an up and down season from here on out. We’re all hoping for an outcome that’s special and unexpected, but the likelihood is that we’ll have to live through growing pains. In some ways, JJ Wetherholt’s (very, very) early season results are a microcosm for the roller coaster nature of this team as a whole. This is fitting in a lot of ways, as we all hope JJ Wetherholt will be in St. Louis for a very long
time. (Unless you’re somehow anti-Wetherholt?! Please, go ahead and identify yourself so we can turn up our noses at you and cross the street to the other side. Thanks!)
Wetherholt, of course, is an uber prospect. Everybody who ranks prospects (including your pet dog), had Wetherholt as a consensus top prospect in all of the minor leagues. This designation is a bit of a catch-22 for Cardinals prospects. Wetherholt descends from a shaky Cardinals prospect tree that includes names like Carlson, Reyes, Taveras (RIP – a true sliding doors moment for the franchise), and Walker (WOW JORDAN WALKER SO FAR). I’m fine staking my non-existent Cardinals reputation on the fact that Wetherholt is absolutely not going to be a failure. While I’m here giving takes, let me just bring up the spice level. I’d happily bet money that Wetherholt will be in a red jacket someday. How’s that for confidence?
In our last episode of Redbird Rundown, we ranked the top three most untradeable major leaguers on the Cardinals roster and despite Jordan Walker’s thermonuclear start (let’s do it again – WOW JORDAN WALKER SO FAR), Wetherholt remains the top of the heap for me. You may disagree, and that’s part of being an observer! Check out that list and so much more if you’re into audio content – Apple and Spotify!
If you’ve watched any of the games thus far, you’ve seen why I have such confidence in Wetherholt. The guy is a quintessential high-floor player. His approach is elite – maybe even beyond elite? Wetherholt is a one man wrecking crew for opposing hurler’s pitch counts. As such, he’s running a walk rate that is in the 76th percentile. While spitting on balls outside the zone, Wetherholt is hacking at pitches in the zone. In the very early going (Yes, I’m still aware it’s early. Thanks for checking.), Wetherholt is displaying an aggressiveness that he’s never shown as a professional. As of this writing, he’s swinging at 5% more pitches in the zone and 3% more pitches outside the zone.
This newfound aggressiveness, while probably explained by a little rookie pressing to produce at the big league level, does not appear to be serving him well. His bat speed is exactly league average, so to leverage the surprising power he showed last year at Memphis, he’s going to have to swing at exactly the right pitches. Naturally, Wetherholt just had a two homer game two days ago, so there’s all the proof any of us need.
For the season though, his batted ball data is strikingly average. He’s the Michael McGreevy of batted balls so far? Not sure. May need to workshop that. He’s almost exactly 50th percentile in barrel %, hard hit %, average exit velo, and squared up %. All of these numbers last year were much closer to the top of the MiLB system. Obviously, MLB hitters on average are better than MiLB hitters, but this suggests to me that Wetherholt is making contact with pitches he just can’t do as much with. In short, he’s swinging too much right now.
The biggest plague on Wetherholt’s offensive production so far is the sharply hit ball to second base. Now, before you get visions of Victor Scott II dancing in your head, don’t. In general, just don’t do that to yourself. But, Wetherholt is pulling so many more balls than last year. It’s shocking really. Last year he pulled 42.5% of his batted ball events in the minors, this year it’s up to 53.8%. What gives? His opposite field contact has fallen a full 14%. The best version of Wetherholt anyone has ever seen in his very short career (Wetherholt himself is a bit of a short king, no?) has a spray chart that looks like a shotgun blast. It’s all over the field. Right now, he’s pulling far more pitches and suffering from a .245 BABIP. Many of these hard grounders are right at the first and second basemen.
What’s the upshot? JJ Wetherholt is running a 109 wRC+ being a substandard version of his best offensive self. I’m going to chalk it up to rookie pressing. He also has an interesting habit of going through an adjustment period at each new level and then his baseball AI brain recalibrates and he dominates. I’m not sure we’ll see the lofty 154 wRC+ he ran last year in the minors, but I expect him to improve. It’s been an impressive start, even as it’s substandard for him. If that even makes sense.
As you watch him in the coming weeks, pay attention to how aggressive he is in the box. My hope is that he edges down towards his college and minor league seasons when it comes to swing rates. The track record of this more patient player is beyond impressive. I suspect that the Cardinals have a top of the order hitter that will be there for a long time just starting his adjustment period to major league pitching. We’ll see what the future brings.
As always, thanks for reading! It’s been a great experience at VEB so far. Thanks for that! You can usually find me during games hanging out on twitter @mksmith86. I honestly tweet more from our podcast handle @redbirdrundown2. Drop by and say hey!
