When the schedule was released, all eyes focused on the first 20 games. At first glance, it looked….difficult. Again.
Last season, the Raptors had a rough schedule to start the season and ended the first
20 games with only 5 wins. The season prior — Darko Rajakovic’s first with the team — Toronto managed to gut out 9 wins in the first 20.
If the Raptors were going to move past the rebuild phase, something positive had to come out of the first quarter of the season. I remember scanning through the opponents and penciling in 4 victories (Nets x 2; Wizards; and 1 of 2 against the Hornets). With every other game, you could make a case for the opponent coming out on top. Cleveland (x 3) was, and still is one of two favourites to emerge from the East. Atlanta (x 2) was the preseason darkhorse pick, along with Orlando, to crash party. While questions swirled around Philadelphia (x 2), Milwaukee (x 2), and Indiana (x 2), you could also still make the case that each of those teams would still have the best player (and coach) on the floor against Toronto.
The Raptors are currently 7-2 against those East rivals with a chance to finish 9-2 this week.
Toronto’s starters are clicking with Scottie Barnes, Brandon Ingram, RJ Barrett, and Immanuel Quickley all capable of dropping 20 points on any given night. The defense is flying, now up to #6 in the NBA. Darko’s rotation is crystalizing with Ja’Kobe Walter, Jamal Shead, Gradey Dick, and Sandro Mamukelashvili bridging the gap for Ingram/Barnes + bench units. The schedule is manageable. Toronto only has 4 road games in December (5 if you count Las Vegas!), with 3 of those games against teams they’ve already defeated (Milwaukee, Brooklyn, and Washington).
The Raptors finished the previous two seasons with 14 wins combined over the first 20 games. This season, Toronto is inching towards getting 14 wins at least through the first quarter of the season. Vibes couldn’t be higher in the Six!
If there was a how-to guide to success for an underdog team, the Raptors have completed the first step: surprise everyone with a fast start. The next step would be to take down the big dogs. This week, Toronto takes on the two biggest dogs in the Eastern Conference yard: Cleveland, who they’ve defeated twice already this season, and New York. To successfully pass these tests, the Raptors will have to be at their collective best!
November 24 vs Cleveland Cavaliers
Darius Garland is back. Or is he? The All-Star guard returned to the lineup in Friday’s NBA Cup win over the Indiana Pacers. Garland 13 of the previous 16 games for Cleveland, including both matchups with Toronto. When he briefly returned from his toe injury in early November, he was kept out of the second game of a back-to-back. With Cleveland’s sights on a deep playoff run, it wouldn’t surprise me if Garland missed this game since the Cavaliers will be playing the night before.
When these teams last faced each other, Barnes was the best player on the floor. Period. He produced one of the best games of his career with a stat line of 28 points, 10 rebounds, 8 assists, and 5 blocks. It was the first game in Raptors history where a player amassed at least 25 points, 10 rebounds, 5 assists, and 5 blocks. If you lower that threshold to 20 points, the only two instances were achieved by Barnes. What a special player!
In that same game, Jarrett Allen returned after missing the first game against Toronto. He, along with Evan Mobley, looked very pedestrian as they combined for 13 points on 5-for-13 shooting. Donovan Mitchell also returned to the lineup after missing the first matchup with the Raptors. His 31 points led the Cavs, but missing 11 of his 18 field goal attempts and turning the ball over 7 times only further aided in Toronto’s 126-113 victory.
Fun fact that may only interest me
The longest win streak either of these teams have had against each other was 10. From 1999 to 2002, Toronto reeled off a double-digit win streak against Cleveland, which included series sweeps in the ‘99-’00 and ‘00-’01 seasons.
Let’s frame that differently. When Toronto last completed a season series sweep against Cleveland — April 4, 2001 — the following Raptors were not born yet:
- Jamison Battle
- Scottie Barnes
- Alijah Martin
- Jamal Shead
- Chucky Hepburn
- Gradey Dick
- Ja’Kobe Walter
- Collin Murray-Boyles
Prediction
Both teams roll into this one on the backend of a back-to-back. Toronto will have the advantage since they wouldn’t have to worry about traveling. Cleveland will be coming off a home game against the struggling/hopeless Los Angeles Clippers. For the Raptors, the motivation is crystal clear: can they sweep the season series against an Eastern Conference favourite?
I originally had Cleveland winning and covering this game but have changed my mind for three reasons. The Cavaliers, again, are dealing with a plethora of injuries (Jarrett Allen, Darius Garland, Sam Merrill, Lonzo Ball, and Craig Porter Jr. missed Sunday’s game). Toronto’s offense will look much crisper with Jakob Poeltl back in the lineup. If RJ Barrett misses time after spraining his knee during Sunday’s game, the Raptors’ defense will likely improve with Jamal Shead or Ja’Kobe Walter stepping into a starter role (and likely covering Donovan Mitchell). Toronto completes the season series sweep and cover the +2.5 spread.
November 26 vs Indiana Pacers
Two seasons ago, the Indiana Pacers were the inaugural Eastern Conference champions of the NBA Cup.
Last season, the Pacers were the Eastern Conference champions. Period.
This season, so far, Indiana is 2-14, have dealt with a cornucopia of injuries to key players, and currently have the 29th-ranked offense. Raptors fans have recently seen the offenses of Washington, Brooklyn, and Memphis…..Indiana’s is statistically worse than all of them! Oh how quickly things can change in the NBA.
Bennedict Mathurin returned to the lineup last week and help the team double its win total (to 2) with a home win over the Hornets. Pascal Siakam is averaging a career-high 24.8 points per game. Jay Huff is filling the void left behind by Myles Turner, as he currently sits 3rd in the NBA in blocks per game.
These are all nice stories in what’s looking like a lost season. The Pacers’ horrendous start likely answers the one question Indiana had after Tyrese Haliburton: do they go full tank mode this season and return in 2026 with an MVP candidate and a can’t-miss prospect from a loaded draft? With all signs pointing to YES, the next question is when does Indiana start bubble-wrapping Siakam, Mathurin, and Andrew Nembhard?
Fun fact that may only interest me
This past July, Jay Huff was traded from Memphis to Indiana for a pair of future 2nd-round picks. Last season, Huff broke through with the Grizzlies after a couple of years transferring in and out of the G League with the Lakers, Wizards, and Nuggets’ organizations. He had his two-way contract converted with Memphis and proved his worth amidst an injury-riddled Grizzlies roster. The trade must have been rough news for Huff, but you could see the reasoning from Memphis’ side. With Jaren Jackson Jr., Zach Edey, and Santi Aldama on the team, playing time would be at a minimum this season.
Huff is certainly having the first (last?) laugh as he continues making his mark in the league.
Memphis’ top two in total blocks — Jackson Jr. (19) and Aldama (12) — have combined for 31 blocks over 32 combined games.
Huff currently has 32 blocks in his 16 games.
Prediction
The Pacers are winless on the road, having lost all 9 of its games away from home. This will be the final NBA Cup round robin game for the Raptors, while Indiana has one more against Washington. Toronto has already clinched first place in Group A but a home game in the quarterfinals is not guaranteed yet. To host a game in the knockout stage, the Raptors will need to have one of the top 2 records in the East. Assuming Milwaukee and one of Detroit/Orlando finish with perfect records in their respective groups, point differential will come into play.
- Toronto: +53 with 1 game to play
- Detroit: +27 with a road game in Boston and home game against Orlando
- Orlando: +20 with road games in Philadelphia and Detroit
- Milwaukee: +16 with road games in Miami and New York to play
Toronto is in the driver’s seat to host a knockout stage game but first need to do what they’ve been doing for the last two weeks: take care of business! The Raptors beat the Pacers and cover the -8.5 spread.
November 29 @ Charlotte Hornets
For all the hype that’s justifiably being thrown at Charlotte and its promising group of rookies, the spotlight was shifting away from the Hornets’ All-Star point guard, LaMelo Ball. Not anymore.
According to Kelly Iko of Yahoo Sports, “LaMelo Ball has grown increasingly frustrated with the organization and is open to a trade away from the franchise.”
Well, that puts a damper on things. Many franchises know the death knell that comes when the face of the team wants out. Whether it’s Toronto and Vince Carter, Miami and Jimmy Butler, or any franchise that rostered James Harden, the strain it puts on the front office to either appease or trade the star is an unenviable task.
For what it’s worth, the team has been competitive, despite the noise off-court. Charlotte had 4th-quarter leads in the final two minutes against Milwaukee, Toronto, and Atlanta. While each of those games ended in losses, the team’s inspired play should be promising news to a Hornets fan base that hasn’t seen a playoff game since 2016.
Fun fact that may only interest me
Whenever I’m digging through stats, I’ll occasionally come across some numbers that are good, but not great. Oftentimes, the difference between ‘good’ and ‘great’ stats is one number/line/game that throws off the numbers. Kudos to NBACentral for highlighting Kon Knueppel’s solid play of late while also adding an asterisk that many people — stats geeks and NBA teams alike — will likely add in their own analyses.
Prediction
The Raptors benefit from not having a Black Friday game because combined with the entire NBA having American Thanksgiving off and the Hornets hosting the Bulls the night before, Toronto enters this game with a rest advantage of 2 days. This game follows the same guiding principle as the previous game against Indiana: take care of business.
Toronto has done an excellent job in making game-to-game adjustments. Heading into this week’s games, the Raptors have won by 28 against Milwaukee, 12 against Atlanta, 13 against Cleveland, and 9 against Philadelphia…..each in the second time facing them. The Raptors should do the same to a Hornets squad that’s a little off-kilter. Toronto beats Charlotte and covers the -7.5 spread.
November 30 @ New York Knicks
With all due respect to the Detroit Pistons, the path to the NBA Finals for Eastern Conference teams is through Cleveland and New York. The Raptors have already opened a lot of eyes by winning (sweeping?) the season series with the Cavaliers. The barometer of success now shifts to Madison Square Garden.
Mike Brown has taken over Tom Thibodeau’s position as Head Coach and, unsurprisingly, the Knicks have looked different this year. The offense, though, looks similar under Brown. New York is still a top-5 offense that limits turnovers, crashes the offensive glass with success, and is led by the dynamic duo of Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns.
The concern is on the defensive end. Brown is in his 11th season as a Head Coach in the NBA. In the previous 10 seasons, his teams have only generated a top-10 defense in two of those campaigns (both headlined by LeBron James in Cleveland). The Knicks have dropped from 12th to 18th in points allowed per possession and are allowing the 5th-worst eFG% in the league.
With Thibodeau out of the picture, minutes distribution has unsurprisingly leveled out. Last season, each of the starters averaged at least 35 minutes per game. Under Brown, only Mikal Bridges (35.3) reaches that threshold. With a deep playoff run expected from this team, it’s no surprise that playing time is being distributed across the roster.
Fun fact that may only interest me
Let’s play my favourite game: Guess That Team!
Team A: Offensive Rating of 123.0 (1st in the NBA), Defensive Rating of 106.4 (2nd), and Net Rating of 16.7 (1st)
Team B: Offensive Rating of 112.8 (23rd in the NBA), Defensive Rating of 120.9 (27th), and Net Rating of -8.0 (25th)
Team A is the New York Knicks with OG Anunoby in the lineup. Team B is the New York Knicks without Anunoby in the lineup.
Prediction
While Toronto had a significant rest advantage against Charlotte, they will have to flight to New York and play a rested Knicks squad who don’t play on Saturday. This, my friends, is called a scheduled loss.
Don’t get me a wrong. The Raptors are playing like the basketball version of the Toronto Blue Jays, with the power of friendship aiding the team’s hot streak in November. It would not surprise me if Toronto found a way to beat their Atlantic Division rival that’s missing its best defensive player.
But I’ll hedge my bets and predict that New York wins and covers the -4.5 spread.
Last week: 2-2
Season record: 12-5
