Matt Chapman is having his worst start to a season ever at the plate. Through 57 games and 239 plate appearances, he’s slashing .234/.314/.322 with a 9.6% walk rate and 22.6% strikeout rate that comes to a wRC+ of 85, or 15% worse than the league average. He turned 33 on April 28th, so that must be it, right? He is on the wrong side of 30 and now we’ve got a front row seat to what appears to be a sudden and steep decline, a situation that befalls every player. But I’m writing this post to tell you
he’s not hitting poorly because of his age.
The agonized cries of the ballknowers who flood social media with Giants chatter have been demanding that Buster Posey trade him since, like, April 1st, and while his plate appearances this season have either been disappointing or depressing — thus giving oxygen to the caterwauling — there’s not an analytical case to be made that he’s cooked, washed, or otherwise not a major leaguer. Yes, his Statcast page has more blue in it than a therapist’s waiting room, but the red streaks are really interesting markers pointing towards a vein of success that has yet to be mined in 2026.
That’s still a Gold Glove-caliber defender. He’s still got my favorite skill of his: fantastic sprint speed for a third baseman. Does the fact that his defense hasn’t degraded at all suggest that the career averages for his bat are still in there? Yes, absolutely. How could it mean otherwise? The physical skills are still present, and it’s not a fantasy, it’s being measured by lasers during game action.
To put that in some context, let’s look at Nolan Arenado. From age 22-31, he was probably the best third baseman in the National League on both sides of the ball. He was 21% better than the league average for 10 seasons and amassed 44.8 wins above average (per FanGraphs). His defense alone was +108.8 Defensive Runs Above Average. But he fell off beginning with his age 32 season (107 wRC+) and went down again the following season (103) before bottoming out last season (84). He’s revived himself in his age-35 season with Arizona (130), but let’s just look at that break between his last great season before this year (149 wRC+ at age-31) and the year where he fell off (age-32: 107 wRC+). In that case, he lost value on defense along with the bat.
I know defense isn’t a convincing enough data point when trying to prove that Matt Chapman hasn’t been finished off by the aging curve, but just keep that in mind as you consider the other data point: his bat speed. Look at how his 75.8 mph average compares to the league:
The defense, foot speed, and bat speed don’t indicate a body in the process of betraying the mind. His chase rate has gotten worse and his walk rate has gone down — but that’s the case for most of the Giants. Still not evidence that age has buried his bat for good.
Then there’s this: over his last 13 games (55 PA), he’s 14-for-48 with 6 doubles, 7 walks, and 8 strikeouts, good enough for a line of .292/.382/.417 (.798 OPS). No, the power isn’t back, but that doesn’t mean it’s gone, necessarily. The Giants have lost all their power this season, and it could be for many reasons. But before I speculate on that, I also want to look at Chapman’s season.
Games 1-14 (59 PA): .315/.373/.463 (.863 OPS)
Games 15-28 (59 PA): .250/.339/.288 (.627 OPS)
Games 29-42 (58 PA): .115/.207/.173 (.380 OPS)
Games 43-57 (63 PA): .250/.333/.357 (.690 OPS)
So, I cherrypicked a solid-looking span of games to get a sexier split, but overall, you can see how he’s been micro-streaking all season long. The absence of power is concerning, but this is where I think the non-age factors come into play; and, frankly, I think the implications are less preferable to Chapman simply aging out. Do the Giants have a good hitting plan? Do they scout well? Does the coaching staff have the trust of the players? Are they great support for the players? It would be hard to be worse than Bob Melvin’s staff, but at the end of the day, the Giants’ record speaks for itself, and if Hector Borg and Patrick Bailey can be scapegoated, it stands to reason that everyone is fair game. But from an “under the hood” standpoint, what’s afflicting Chapman has afflicted most Giants for most of the season and maybe confidence in his manager or the front office is an extra 2% that’s making this power slump drag on.
But maybe that’s why so many people out there want Chapman to be traded — let him go back to his career averages with some other team and no longer be the Giants’ problem. The trouble is, once you start liquidating players who can’t be helped by the current staff, you’ll probably run out of players very quickly. Matt Chapman was supposed to be a cornerstone player for the franchise in what was supposed to be a competitive window. Another year or two of Matt Chapman being MATT CHAPMAN wasn’t so outlandish a thought before the season and it isn’t one now and so people shouldn’t be so quick to abandon him.
Unless the Giants can get some really good prospects in return for him.
