There are several distinct and telling signs of a roster designed the way the Cincinnati Reds have put together theirs. The fabric of it, if you will.
Back in 2022, the front office decided to end the pursuit of playoff glory with the then-current iteration of players on the roster and instead invest in future runs. That meant cashing in on established players like Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle, and Luis Castillo and instead turning their sights towards a future – one with younger players with more team
control and fewer salary obligations.
That’s how teams dedicated to keeping their budget at a minimum work. They cash in on the players getting expensive and nearing free agency in order to collect younger, cheaper players with more years to grow into being big leaguers, with hopes the latter can form a new core on a much less imposing budget.
Here we are, though, with the Cincinnati Reds heading into the 2027 season with those then-future hopes of postseason glory still unrealized. However, the players they began assembling five years ago are now barreling into their own arbitration years, and the fabric of the roster is about to get more expensive in a new, different manner.
MLB Trade Rumors long ago created their own proprietary model for estimating the salaries of arbitration-eligible players, doing their best to unmask the otherwise nebulous process and reveal just what takes players from their league-minimum rates into their first big paychecks after they log the requisite amount of service time. And this winter, the Reds will have a full dozen players who’ll be going through that process (if not non-tendered), with nearly half their expected active roster expected to command a total of nearly $43 million.
That group is headlined by Elly De La Cruz, whom MLBTR estimates will command a salary of $7.9 million in his first trip through the arb process. The arbitration process leans heavily on straightforward production statistics like homers and steals, and obviously Elly – who just joined the 30-30 club for the first time – has logged those in spades. So, too, has Spencer Steer across his first four full years as a big leaguer, and he’s estimated to command a $5.7 million salary for 2027 that mirrors that of lefty Nick Lodolo behind Elly’s nearly $8 million mark.
Reds Arbitration Estimates
Tejay Antone – $1.5 million
Nick Lodolo – $5.7 million
Graham Ashcraft – $2.2 million
Tony Santillan – $2.5 million
Spencer Steer – $5.7 million
JJ Bleday – $4.8 million
Matt McLain – $4 million
Brandon Williamson – $1.3 million
Andrew Abbott – $4.5 million
Elly De La Cruz – $7.9 million
Oswaldo Cabrera – $1.1 million
Dane Myers – $1.5 million
All told, it’s a reflection of the larger problem facing the Reds. They have assembled a roster that’s aging into free agency and getting more expensive all while facing dwindling team control while having piled up not nearly enough wins for the expectations of the front office (or the fans). And now, the people pulling the strings get to decide if they want to pay the increased rates to keep this core around for another year or move on to younger, cheaper players (a la their 2022 strategy) in order to begin building towards some other far-off pipe dream.
