It’s that blessed time of year again when I get to step into my alter ego as the Benevolent Dictator of Trade Down Island, dress in my full island military dictator uniform, and issue decrees to general manager Dan Morgan to trade back in the first round. For those of you unfortunate souls who have not yet purchased a beachfront villa, here is a quick summary of Trade Down Island’s Glorious Constitution that governs our blissful way of life:
- The NFL Draft is nothing but educated guesswork, so the more picks in Rounds 1-4, the better!
- DO NOT trade down in Rounds 1-2 if it means passing up a nearly guaranteed impact player or Pro Bowler
- We are always willing to trade down a few spots in Rounds 1-2 to stockpile additional picks in Rounds 2-4
- We express our eternal love for rookie contracts for players drafted in Rounds 2-4
- We strive to trade away this year’s picks in Rounds 5-7 to smartly trade up this year or for earlier picks in next year’s draft
This year the Carolina Panthers hold the No. 19 pick in the draft,
which puts them in something of a talent desert. As I’ve previously written, based on recent draft data the realistic expectations the Panthers should have for a No. 19 pick is an average NFL starter. At the aggregate, the Panthers are probably just about as likely to find an average starter later in the first round as they are at No. 19. Since Carolina isn’t “one player away” from competing for a Super Bowl, they would be wise to do just that.
Now, as Dictator of Trade Down Island, I am issuing an order to Dan Morgan to pick up the phone and work out trade with either the Kansas City Chiefs or the New England Patriots. If he is able to swing a trade down deal, I will invoke seven days of celebration across the island with all-you-can-eat suckling pig, jerk chicken, lobster, crab legs, pineapple, and mango. If Mr. Morgan does not comply with my edict, he may disappear for a period of time until he successfully “gets his head right” for future drafts. I can be quite persuasive.
When determining the value of trades, we use the Rich Hill Model on TDI.
Trade Partner No. 1: Kansas City Chiefs
Panthers give up: No. 19 (278 points)
Panthers receive: No. 29, No. 74, 2027 Late 4th Round (~278 points)
This trade is the essence of building long-term draft capital on Trade Down Island. Provided the Panthers aren’t passing up a potential Pro Bowler at No. 19 — and Pro Bowlers are the outlier at No. 19 — there’s no real difference in the talent available at No. 29. This is especially true for the Panthers this year. As far as roster construction goes, Carolina’s front office brought in a solid free agent class this year and the team is still far from truly competing in the postseason.
Moving back 10 spots usually means that instead of taking the No. 2 player at a certain position, they’re instead taking No. 3. At that point we’re just splitting hairs, flipping coins, and hoping for the best.
The Chiefs, on the other hand, are facing the pressure to “win now” while the Patrick Mahomes window is still open. Head coach Andy Reid is 68 years old and could potentially retire before his players drafted this year complete their rookie contracts.
The Chiefs current picks line up nicely for a trade-up as well. They hold the No. 9 and No. 29 picks in the first round, the No. 40 pick in the second, and No. 74 in the third. Kansas City might be willing to part with No. 74 to move up 10 spots in the first round to get “their win-now guy” since they still have No. 40 in their back pocket.
Few NFL assets are as low risk, high reward as third round picks. If Carolina can trade back and land a starter at No. 29 then have another bite at the apple at No. 74 — plus another fourth round pick in 2027 — the team is more likely to accelerate its ongoing rebuild.
Trade Partner No. 2: New England Patriots
Panthers give up: No. 19 (278 points)
Panthers receive: No. 31, No. 63, No. 191 (277 points)
The Patriots are coming off a stellar 2025 season in which they went 14-3 and reached the Super Bowl behind new head coach Mike Vrabel and second-year quarterback Drake Maye. New England likely feels tantalizingly close to bringing another Super Bowl title back to Boston, and if they fall in love with a player at No. 19 who can help them achieve that goal, they may be willing to deal.
Enter the Carolina Panthers.
The logic for this trade is the same as the logic in the Kansas City Trade and as preached in Trade Down Island’s Glorious Constitution, and in this case Carolina ends up with a juicy late second round pick at No. 63. Again, at TDI we express our eternal love for rookie contracts for players drafted in Rounds 2-4.
And Carolina has a history of finding talent late in the second round. The Panthers have selected a total of five players between No. 64 and No. 70 and they turned out to be Taylor Moton, Jeremy Chinn, Terrell McClain (who went on to have a serviceable nine-year, 92-game career after the Panthers foolishly released him after his 2011 rookie season), Charles Godfrey, and Brady Christensen.
Those guys aren’t going to singlehandedly win you Super Bowls, but getting one “for free” in a trade down scenario helps build a deeper, cheaper roster. The No. 63 pick in this year’s draft will sign a four-year, $7.8 million contract, which is essentially a rounding error against this year’s $301 million salary cap. When teams are able to develop No. 63 picks into average starters or even quality rotational guys, it unlocks millions of dollars to spend elsewhere.
Carolina also gets another sixth round pick, No. 191, to use in orchestrating other trades or to scratch a lottery ticket in the hopes it pays off.
When it comes to roster construction, I’d happily trade No. 19 for No. 31, the chance to land another Moton or Godfrey at No. 63, plus a bonus pick at No. 191 as a draft day novelty toy.
Your Benevolent Dictator has spoken.
Dan Morgan has received his majesty’s decree.
Let’s now hope Mr. Morgan does the right thing on draft day, for his sake and for yours.
I already have the suckling pick picked out for the post-draft celebration.
