Last Friday, ORSTLcardsfan wrote about how the Cardinals might approach the upcoming offseason by looking at the 40 man roster, seeing who could be shed and who needed to be added, plus highlighting team needs over the offseason. He made a comment that got my attention: he put Matthew Liberatore in the nontender category. That got my attention because the thought had not occurred to me, and he said he wasn’t expecting it either.
It inspired this post. There are nine players entering arbitration next
season. For some of them, this will not be their first rodeo, Liberatore included. Last I checked, MLB Trade Rumors, pretty much the gold standard for this, estimated the Super Two cutoff at 2.130 years of service. Riley O’Brien is at 2.129 years of service. They did estimate this based on where players where at as of the trading deadline, so it could change. Riley O’Brien would be Super Two eligible in 7 of the last 17 seasons, so it’s certainly possible. Let’s make him our tenth player.
The idea is simple: I estimate what a player’s salary will be and then will determine whether they are tendered a contract. I will be using Point of Pittsburgh’s numbers, admittedly it is from 2016. So a little bit outdated, but I’m guessing the numbers haven’t changed wildly. According to their calculations, a player will earn 25% of their free agent value in their first year of arb, 40% in their second year of arb, and 62% in their third year of arb. It works differently for Super Two players. For them, it’s 18% in their first year, 33% in their second year, 50% in their third year and 69% for their fourth year.
Andre Pallante
Service Time: 4.145 (translated, this means 4 years, 145 days)
Pallante should see a decent bump. He was eligible for Super Two back in 2025, earning $2.1 million. Pallante supports Point of Pittsburgh’s method actually, because based off that, he “should” have made $3.85 million in his second year. His actual salary was $4 million. But the Cardinals and Pallante came to an agreement before a hearing and that means it was between the Cardinals number and Pallante’s number. Not to mention, it’s possible his value raised slightly due to making 31 starts and throwing 162 innings even if they were below average innings. I wouldn’t be surprised if arbitration valued a below average and full-time, healthy starter over a swingman.
With all that said, there is no doubt in my mind that 50% of Pallante’s value will be based off a higher figure than what his previous arb figures were based on. It won’t be as much of a difference as you’d expect – the standard set by the initial figures still matters. But they do change the price slightly. If arbitration valued him exactly the same way, he’d get a $6 million salary. Based on his 2.7 fWAR season, he’d get a $13.5 million salary. Arbitration wouldn’t project him for him to repeat that season though.
An unscientific guess on my part is splitting the difference. Let’s say he projects for 2.2 WAR. Take the average and I get $8.5 million. That sounds right to me. With two years of team control and a projection probably over 2 WAR, you can see how he’d be pretty valuable on the trade market. Just throwing it out there. He’s a no brainer keep though.
Estimated Salary: $8.5 million
Conclusion: Tender a contract
Alec Burleson
With Burleson, we have yet another player whose value has been raised. Burleson is actually a virtually identical hitter to last season, believe it or not. His struggles in September have gone way under the radar, but he has an 80 wRC+ this month and actually it’s worse than that because he went 1 for 5 with a single yesterday. He is somehow still racking the RBIs which is probably why nobody is really noticing it. But he had a 123 wRC+ last year, he has a 122 wRC+ this year. However, there’s a good chance arbitration does actually care about RBIs and better defense at 1B has led to a higher WAR, not to mention what will be well over 100 more plate appearances. It adds up.
I have already looked into Burleson’s arbitration price when I looked at a Burleson extension. I see no reason to alter what I thought then. I said if arbitration viewed him exactly the same, he’d be worth $5.3 million based on his $3.3 million in his first year. I threw out the new number of $7 million, which might actually be high, because I think he had a 130 wRC+ then. However, he’s effectively the same exact player, but seen by arbitration, he plays more and with lots of RBIs. So I’ll stick with $7 million.
Well, I already advocated for a Burleson extension, so you shouldn’t be surprised at my conclusion.
Estimated salary: $7 million
Conclusion: Tender a contract
Nolan Gorman
Well, the fun had to end sometime. I don’t know if there’s a point in figuring out his price. At best, arbitration will view him exactly the same. It’s likely he wouldn’t see a very big raise though. He made $2.6 million in his first year of arbitration, and based on that, he’d make $4.16 million in his second year of arb. He wasn’t exactly coming off a good season last year either, but clearly his numbers got worse. I think the lack of homers would especially hurt him.
I honestly don’t think we’re going to find out, but let’s say $3.5 million is his arbitration price. It’s not really about the money with Gorman. Gorman needs a change of scenery. It’s not going to happen here. For a really bad team with a bad situation at 3B, Gorman is a good shoot for the moon pickup – honestly just getting out of Busch Stadium might help him. But the Cardinals have two unlikely, but potentially the future guys he’d get in the way of and a lot more potential behind them and Gorman has become the new Arenado, but with no trade value.
Estimated salary: $3.5 million
Conclusion: Nontender
Matthew Liberatore
The man who inspired this post. I am going to pay attention to his 2027 number, because I do want to know how much arbitration values a 30+ start starter, even if that starter wasn’t very good. Liberatore’s arb 1 salary, which was Super 2, was $2.26 million. That’s not a lot, but Liberatore didn’t have a good track record aside from 2025 and his 2025 was mediocre. What I’m saying is that if leading up to 2026, Liberatore had a 2023 and a 2024 that looked a hell of a lot like his 2025, his salary would have been higher.
Because he made 31 starts and because he exceeded his innings last year, I don’t think his value will take a hit and there is a small chance arbitration thinks he’d be worth (slightly) more in free agency, purely based on games started and innings. I repeat what I said about Pallante: a below average starter is worth more than a swingman. That said, if he gets a bump, it’s really not much. Based on his 2026 salary, he would make $4.14 million. I’ll just say $4.5 million for 2027.
Whatever the Cardinals think of Liberatore, I think there’s about a 1% chance they nontender him at that price. I just don’t see it. They just gave Ryne Stanek $5 million. The reliever version of Liberatore is certainly worth a $4.5 million gamble. The Cardinals are not even remotely in a salary crunch situation.
The Cardinals have given hints they are done with Gorman. That is not the case for Liberatore. He’s coming back or is traded, but he won’t be nontendered.
Estimated salary: $4.5 million
Conclusion: Tendered a contract
Masyn Winn
Okay now we’re in comp territory. I found a much better comp than I expected, although slightly worse in just about every way. Anthony Volpe coming into this season had a Gold Glove, was a career 84 wRC+ hitter, and is a very good defender. I don’t know what an arbitration panel uses for defense, but Volpe is actually a much better comp if it uses Baseball Reference. Considering he won a Gold Glove in his rookie season based on Baseball Reference (since his OAA was +1), and he didn’t win a Gold Glove the year he had +14 OAA, that is a possibility. Winn’s defense is much, much closer to Volpe’s if it uses DRS. Winn has 5.2 dWAR, Volpe had 5.3 dWAR entering this season. OAA tells a different story. Volpe was +8 OAA entering this season (thanks to a bad 2025), Winn will be +39.
So to say the least, Volpe could either be an extremely good comp or a very bad comp depending on which defensive metric you want to use. Winn is also a better hitter. Volpe has a career 84 wRC+, Winn is at 87. But that includes his 29 wRC+ debut season, so I feel like he’d be viewed as a clearly better hitter. Volpe is a better base stealer and baserunner, like a lot better, both in terms of stolen bases and BsR so that might soften the gap between the two. Anyway Volpe made $3.48 million in his first arbitration season. I think having two Gold Gloves will matter a lot in this comp, so I think I’ll bump it a million.
Estimated salary: $4.5 million
Conclusion: Tender a contract
Jordan Walker
Another difficult comp, but I don’t need to find a player who had his exact same trajectory, which is good, because that player does not exist near as I can tell. Jo Adell is the closest, but he was farther along in the arbitration process and wasn’t as good, making any comparison pointless. So I had to resort to someone who had a similar season overall. I found Kerry Carpenter, who had 2.9 fWAR and a 120 wRC+. Greene has better (but still below average) defense, but he’s a negative baserunner. This is as close as I’ll get. Greene made $5 million, but his MLB Trade Rumors estimate was $6.6 million. Greene agreed to a deal before the panel. I don’t know if he was poorly advised or Trade Rumors was really off, but I’m going to say he should have held out for more money.
So I’m going to operate with the $6.6 million figure. With that said, Walker should be valued as worse than Greene. For starters, Greene came into the 2026 season as an extremely reliable hitter. Somewhat in hindsight but not completely, but 120 wRC+ more or less appears to be his floor (his worst full season wRC+ is 119 and he has a 138 wRC+ this season). That is not the case with Walker. Those other seasons matter too in his figure.
So ironically, Greene’s $5 million salary for 2026 is actually kind of a reasonable guess for Walker. Walker has the most variance in what his number could be, but $5 million is a good middle ground in my mind.
Estimated Salary: $5 million
Conclusion: Tender a contract
Ivan Herrera
Boy, Herrera is such a specific type of player that I could not find a good comp. There were not catchers who had the playing time that he did. There were good hitting catchers, but they caught 80% of their games. The closest I found was Yanier Diaz. He’s not a great comp, because he was coming off a 92 wRC+ season, and he catches the majority of games he plays, but he is an offensive-oriented catcher who isn’t very good at defense. His is more framing related than stolen base related, although Herrera isn’t really a good framer either. Yanier Diaz made $4.5 million, which happened to be exactly what MLB Trade Rumors projected.
I’ll just go with that. I don’t know how to factor in that Herrera DH’d twice as much as he caught, but we’ll say Diaz catching more games makes up for Herrera’s better offense (at least when Diaz was first eligible for arbitraton)
Estimated Salary: $4.5 million
Conclusion: Tender a contract
Pedro Pages
I found an extremely good comp, far better than I expected if I’m being honest. The only problem is that this was a good comp entering the 2025 season, not the 2026 season. Not a big problem honestly. But this player has leveled up to make it appear to be a bad comp. Nick Fortes entering the 2025 season was essentially Pedro Pages. Worse hitter, his numbers on defense were better though. But he was coming off a 58 wRC+ season, which followed a 52 wRC+ season. In case anybody thinks it’s impossible Pages’ bat ever improves to acceptable range, I present Nick Fortes. Ironically, his defense hasn’t rated very well this year though.
Honestly, this is about as close as I’ll get to a 1:1 comparison, so I’m just going to use Nick Fortes 2025 expected salary of $1.6 million. I don’t see any way Pages is nontendered at this price. You should at the least be able to trade him. Fortes in fact was traded to the Rays. The Marlins got what appears to be a nonprospect, but he’s a 24-year-old outfielder with a 108 wRC+ in AAA right now, so it’s not nothing.
Estimated Salary: $1.6 million
Conclusion: Tender a contract
Kyle Leahy
Oh my god, the Cardinals can’t just have a normal player, can they? I didn’t really find anyone, because you know pitchers don’t have Kyle Leahy’s career trajectory like ever. It’s why I was skeptical about him as a starter. He didn’t debut until he was 26, he was a not great reliever at 27, turned into the bullpen equivalent of an innings eater at 28, and then managed to make 29 starts where he was mostly good but didn’t throw a lot of innings. That comp doesn’t exist.
So I just kind of looked at a bunch of Super Two pitchers and my official guess is $3 million, but it’s just based on vibes. I looked a few pitchers and the assigned numbers seemed more or less random, but it was usually between $2 million and $3.5 million if the pitcher was somewhat close to how Leahy pitched. I doubt this is wildly off, but I really have no clue what his salary will be.
Estimated Salary: $3 million
Conclusion: Tender a contract
Riley O’Brien
And of course we have another weirdo here, essentially a mediocre reliever with a ridiculous amount of saves. Based on his performance, he’d get paid not a lot more than league minimum, but the All-Star appearance and saves will get him something. If a pitcher gets to 38 saves by the time they reach Super Two status, they are normally much better relievers than Riley O’Brien has been. I’m not knocking him, teams just don’t usually give the closer role to relative newcomers who aren’t elite. He did seem elite at first, granted, but it’s just hard to find a comp for a 0.3 fWAR reliever with 38 saves and an All-Star appearance.
Anyway, MLB Trade Rumors projected Mason Miller for $3.4 million, and since that feels like the absolute ceiling a true reliever could ever get in their first year of arbitration as a Super Two player, let’s just say $2 million and call it a day? The saves might end up mattering later, but Super Two relievers just don’t get paid ever. Also I’ll repeat O’Brien might not actually qualify for Super Two.
Estimated Salary: $2 million
Conclusion: Tender a contract
Frankly, I’m curious if and how the Cardinals raise their payroll to a not embarrassing level next year. Before the league minimum guys and the arbitration figures are factored in, the Cardinals have a committed $16 million on the books right now. SIXTEEN MILLION. Almost all of that is for players who will play zero innings for the Cardinals too. $13 million combined for Contreras and Arenado, $500K for buying out Ramon Urias. It’s pretty much just JJ’s salary.
If the Cardinals followed my estimates, they’d have an additional $40.6 million from the arbitration players, assuming O’Brien even qualifies. Good chance one or more of these guys is traded, so it won’t even be that. I know the league minimum guys factor into their overall payroll, but bare minimum, they got to spend like $40 million for this not to be an absolutely embarrassing payroll, no? I could not be asking for less. They spent $183 million in 2024 and I’m wondering how they’re going to get to $100 million.
