The New England Patriots did not play their best football against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 12, but at the end o f the day still emerged victoriously. As a result of their 26-20 win, they are now the first team in the NFL to 10 wins as well as the sole owner of the top spot in AFC.
While that second honor comes courtesy of the Denver Broncos having their bye, the Patriots continuing to win is starting to put pressure on their competition. Denver is now a half-game behind New England, which will
be on its own bye in Week 14, as well as 1.5 games ahead of the Indianapolis Colts, who suffered an overtime defeat against the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday.
In full, the AFC playoff picture now looks as follows:
AFC playoff picture after Week 12
- New England Patriots (10-2)
- Denver Broncos (9-2)
- Indianapolis Colts (8-3)
- Baltimore Ravens (6-5)
- Los Angeles Chargers (7-4)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (7-4)
- Buffalo Bills (7-4)
On the bubble: 8. Houston Texans (6-5), 9. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5), 10. Kansas City Chiefs (6-5)
Not technically eliminated but let’s be real here: 11. Miami Dolphins (4-7), 12. Cincinnati Bengals (3-8), 13. Cleveland Browns (3-8), 14. Las Vegas Raiders (2-9), 15. New York Jets (2-9), 16. Tennessee Titans (1-10)
As a result of Week 12, the Patriots’ postseason projections have also improved a bit. While still more than 99% that they will make the playoffs — failing to do so at this point would take more than just a monumental collapse — they also are now favored in 93% of scenarios to win their division, according to The Athletic’s playoff simulator. Their chances of earning the top seed and associated playoff bye have jumped from 46% to 57%.
Week 12 also saw its first eliminations. In the AFC, the Raiders, Jets and Titans have officially been knocked out of division title contention to prolong droughts that started in 2002, 2002 and 2021, respectively.
The NFC playoff picture, meanwhile, looks as follows:
NFC playoff picture after Week 12
- Los Angeles Rams (9-2)
- Philadelphia Eagles (8-3)
- Chicago Bears (8-3)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-5)
- Seattle Seahawks (8-3)
- Green Bay Packers (7-3-1)
- San Francisco 49ers (8-4)
On the bubble: 8. Detroit Lions (7-4), 9. Carolina Panthers (6-6), 10. Dallas Cowboys (5-5-1)
Not technically eliminated but let’s be real here: 11. Atlanta Falcons (4-7), 11. Minnesota Vikings (4-7), 12. Arizona Cardinals (3-8), 14. Washington Commanders (3-8), 15. New Orleans Saints (2-9)
Eliminated: 16. New York Giants (2-10)
The NFC playoff picture continues to get shaken up on a weekly basis. This week, a new No. 1 emerged: thanks to the Rams defeating the Buccaneers and the Eagles getting beaten by the Cowboys, Los Angeles has risen to the top of the conference. In fact, there is a strong argument to be made that the team of head coach Sean McVay and MVP frontrunner Matthew Stafford is the best in football right now.
The only other major changes are additional eliminations. The 2-10 Giants are now the first team officially no longer able to qualify for the playoffs, while the Cardinals’ division title hopes in a hyper-competitive NFC West have also gone up in smoke.
