The San Francisco 49ers head into Seattle to face the Seahawks, who are well rested, but with a possible morale boost as Fred Warner practiced for the first time since his devastating ankle injury against Tampa Bay. The Week 18 matchup for the number one seed was a humbling defeat for the 49ers’ offense as Kyle Shanahan’s group could only muster three points against Mike MacDonald’s defense. To make things even more difficult, the 49ers will be without George Kittle.
So, how do the 49ers maintain
their offense and replace Kittle on Saturday? The other burning question is, can the 49ers’ pass rush disrupt Sam Darnold and force him into rushed throws and/or turnovers? Darnold has yet to throw a touchdown or interception in his two games against the 49ers.
Replacing George Kittle
The replacement as the receiving tight end is Jake Tonges. However, given the 49ers’ NFL high usage of 21 personnel, you can expect more from Kyle Juszczyk. With how valuable Juice is as a run blocker, you can expect Shanahan to show looks the 49ers usually run the ball out of as a way to spring the fullback for positive gains. Against the Eagles, his catches were invaluable as they helped keep the 49ers offense on schedule and in manageable down and distances.
Sure, Tonges will be involved, but I fully expect a heavier dose of Juszczyk in the passing game with instances of the fullback splitting out wide. Be sure to look out for the stalk rail route that Juice has run so many times for explosive plays on Saturday.
Running the football successfully
Last week, the 49ers stuck with the run to keep Philadelphia on their toes, but it wasn’t successful. You can expect more tough sledding on Saturday as the Seahawks are the best defensive team against the run with an EPA of -0.17. The difference between Week 18 and the divisional round is that Trent Williams is available, but even running outside will be difficult with the future Hall of Famer. Seattle’s cheat code is that they don’t have to allocate bodies into the box to stop the run.
Seattle has the second-highest rate of light boxes at 78.3% and the highest EPA against outside runs (-0.19) while sporting the second-highest EPA against inside runs (-0.20). The 49ers can’t abandon the run and must keep positive gains coming to avoid being in predictable situations or even worse, continued three-and-outs.
Seattle’s use of motion in the running game
The Seahawks rank 13th in the NFL in using motion at a 56.9% rate. That number seems low with a Kubiak calling plays, but that number increased in Week 18 as the Seahawks running game was formidable against the 49ers’ defense. Out of the 32 rushes in Week 18, 20 used motion, which generated an EPA of 0.06 per rush. Compare that to the other 12 rushes that went for -0.05 per rush.
The 49ers’ defense will have to remain disciplined and prepare for a physical style on Saturday in the running gam,e as Seattle has seemed to find something on the ground late in the season. Eric Kendricks was excellent against Philadelphia, and the missed tackles were minimized, but you can expect Seattle to stick with the run and be more imaginative than the Eagles.
