These days in the NFL, quarterback play means more than it ever has. There was a time when QBs such as Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson could win Super Bowls with teams that had ferocious defenses. You might even argue that last year’s Seattle Seahawks won the Super Bowl with mediocre quarterback play because of their own suffocating defense, but that would be unfair to Sam Darnold, who had arguably the best season of his career even though in the Super Bowl itself his play was only middling.
Joseph
Santoliquito of Bleeding Green Nation does a feature every year in which he “projects” the Philadelphia Eagles’ record for the coming season based on whether the Eagles have a quarterback advantage over their opponent in each game. I put “projects” in quotes because it’s just a fun exercise and not intended to be rigorous, and indeed in some years it’s done a pretty good job and in others it hasn’t. Part of the reason it’s not perfect, other than week-to-week variance in the play of the quarterback himself, is that opposing defenses vary greatly from week to week. Nonetheless, QB play matters a lot, unless your defense is so awful that they consistently are unable to hold fourth quarter leads (see: 2025 New York Giants). We expect the defense to be better this year, though, so what the heck, let’s give it a try for the 2026 Giants while we’re waiting for training camp to begin.
Adding to the uncertainty is the difficulty in knowing what to expect from Giants starting QB Jaxson Dart. Opinions of the NFL cognoscenti are wildly divergent on Dart’s performance last year. Dart’s traditional passing stats were not impressive in 2025. He finished 21st in completion percentage, tied for 25th in yards per pass attempt, 39th in passing yards per game, tied for 25th in TDs, 18th in the traditional NFL passer rating, and 17th in ESPN’s QBR (quarterback rating), which is based on their expected points added (EPA) metric but with adjustments for the quality of defense faced. Pro Football Focus graded him only 64.2 in passing, only 23nd among NFL starting QBs, although he was eighth (76.9) in running.
And ay, there’s the rub. Dart did as much damage to opposing defenses with his legs as with his arm as a rookie. The problem is, he also did damage to himself by not going down quickly enough to avoid some big hits. That’s something I’m sure will be emphasized in John Harbaugh’s first Giants training camp. There are other questions about Dart as a passer – how accurate he can be on deep balls, improving his footwork to remedy that, speeding up his processing, etc. Throw in the fact that he’ll be operating a Matt Nagy offense rather than a Brian Daboll/Mike Kafka offense, and that Malik Nabers may or may not be available when the season begins, and anything is possible, good or bad.
With that as background, let’s assess the Giants’ 2026 schedule from the standpoint of perceived quarterback advantage/disadvantage as Santoliquito does. I will use the QBR stat because to me it’s a better objective indicator of production than anything else out there. (You can say that the definition of EPA itself is somewhat subjective, but once defined, the calculation of QBR is just number-crunching without the subjective assessments that people dislike about things such as Pro Football Focus grades.) For example, the top five QBs in QBR last season were Drake Maye, Brock Purdy, Jordan Love, Matthew Stafford, and Dak Prescott; that’s a pretty decent list. Dart’s own QBRs for his individual starts (on a scale of 0 to 100) were
Best: PHI (91.7), @LV (83.7), @CHI (73.6), @DEN (64.9), @PHI (59.4), @NE (59.5)
Worst: MIN (5.0), WAS (35.3), LAC (47.4), DAL (50.3), @NO (55.2), SF (57.5)
That tracks pretty well with my impressions of his play. Of course I can’t predict Dart’s QBR in any single 2026 game, nor can I that of the opposing QB. I can’t even predict whether he will progress or regress this season. All we can do is to ask whether Dart has the edge entering each game based on what he and his opponent did last season.
Division games
Philadelphia Eagles (2)
QBs: Jalen Hurts (55.2) vs. Dart (57.5)
The Eagles are a bit of an unknown entering the season, having traded A.J. Brown but drafted Makai Lemon and signed Dontayvion Wicks. Hurts’ reputation as a passer is somewhat checkered, perhaps unfairly so, but there’s no doubt how dangerous a runner he is. Actually these are two similar quarterbacks to the extent that people aren’t completely sold on their passing but no one can doubt how dangerous they are running the ball. Their very similar QBRs bear that out. So let’s say
Advantage: Giants (home game), Eagles (away game)
Dallas Cowboys (2)
QBs: Dak Prescott (70.2) vs. Dart (57.5)
Yes, the Giants beat Dak in the final game last season. No, it didn’t really count (except to drop the Giants lower in the draft order, but that seems to have worked out pretty well). The Cowboys have the clear advantage in these games at the QB position based on last year’s performances. Unlike last year, the Cowboys have beefed up their defensive front and secondary during the off-season, with Rashan Gary added to mid-season acquisition Quinnen Williams and Caleb Downs now at sfaety.
Advantage: Cowboys x 2
Washington Commanders (2)
QBs: Jayden Daniels (44.7, but 67.7 in 2024)
The Commanders may be the biggest unknown in the NFL – not only because they completely (and I mean completely) rebuilt their edge defender and linebacker corps, including first round draft pick Sonny Styles, but because 2024 rookie quarterback sensation Jayden Daniels suffered multiple injuries and only played in 7 games. Daniels was better than Dart as a rookie, but worse than Dart in last year’s compromised version. Let’s assume the real Daniels is somewhere in between, i.e., pretty similar to Dart, and that the Giants have someone who can kick extra points and field goals available when they play.
Advantage: Giants (home game), Commanders (road game)
NFC non-division games
@Los Angeles Rams
QBs: Matthew Stafford (71.2) vs. Dart (57.5)
The Rams were Super Bowl-worthy last season, and they just missed getting there. Matthew Stafford is building his case for the Hall of Fame, and his 71.2 QBR last season was only 0.1 behind his career best. I can imagine an improved Dart getting into a shootout with him, but I don’t think the Giants have the firepower to match the Rams.
Advantage: Rams
Arizona Cardinals
QBs: Jacoby Brissett (41.2) vs. Dart (57.5)
It’s not clear whether Brissett will be the starter for the Cardinals, but he is the leader at the pole as training camp looms. Brissett is a better QB than he gets credit for, and he was good enough last season for the Cards to send Kyler Murray packing. Back in 2022, the last time he started for more than half a season (with Cleveland), he had a 62.0 QBR, but that was three years ago in a different organization.
Advantage: Giants
San Francisco 49ers
QBs: Brock Purdy (72.8) vs. Dart (57.5)
Yes, he was Mr. Irrelevant. Yes, he benefits from playing in a Kyle Shanahan offense. But four years and almost one Super Bowl ring into his NFL career, and with a QBR that has never been lower than 64.8 in any of his four seasons, it’s time to admit that Brock Purdy is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. He won’t wow you with the cannon arm of a Stafford or Mahomes, he won’t have you in awe with the elusiveness of a Jayden Daniels, but what he will do is throw intermediate depth passes with anticipation and accuracy, and just beat you. He was second in the NFL in QBR last season.
Advantage: 49ers
@Seattle Seahawks
QBs: Sam Darnold (55.6) vs. Dart (57.5)
Darnold had the second best season of his career last year in QBR, exceeded only by what he did the previous season in Minnesota. Even so his QBR was only middle of the pack and virtually identical to Dart’s. That’s what great receivers and offensive coordinators will do for you. Based purely on QBR we’d say that this one is a toss-up. There’s that little detail, though, of Seattle’s probably NFL-best defense. I expect the Giants’ defense to be better this year than last, but not the equal of Seattle’s. Still, as far as the QB battle:
Advantage: Even
New Orleans Saints
QBs: Tyler Shough (48.8) vs. Dart (57.5)
Some people thought that Shough had a better rookie season than Dart. As a passer, Shough was indeed better, with an EPA of 30.7 to Dart’s 24.9. As a runner, though, it was no contest, with the traditional dropback-passing Shough accumulating only 6.0 EPA to Dart’s 24.4. This really sums up the challenge of projecting Dart’s career – he is not yet the elite passer that the best quarterbacks are, though he shows some tantalizing promise with his ability to create out of structure and arm talent that allows him to fit balls accurately into tight windows. Taken as a whole, Dart is at the moment the bigger offensive threat.
Advantage: Giants
@Detroit Lions
QBs: Jared Goff (57.3) vs. Dart (57.5)
Here we are talking the opposite extremes of NFL football. Goff is a much more experienced and productive passer (53.6 passing EPA last season) than Dart (24.4), but Goff actually had a negative rushing EPA of -2.4. Goff had a total of 45 yards rushing last season, with 5 games with negative rushing yards and 6 games with zero rushing yards. He was one of the league’s most prolific passers, though, with 4,564 yards, fourth best in the NFL. Taken together, the two are equally dangerous QBs according to QBR.
Advantage: Even
AFC games
Tennessee Titans
QBs: Cam Ward (33.2) vs. Dart (57.5)
Ward was at the bottom of ESPN’s QBR rankings for quarterbacks with at least 20 “action” plays last season. He had his moments, but there was no comparison between him and Dart in overall production. Still, despite Brian Daboll’s mostly failed tenure as Giants head coach, we know that he helped Daniel Jones author a playoff season with mostly receivers off the bargain rack and that he deserves considerable credit for Dart’s impressive rookie season. Surely he will do the same with Ward, so we can expect a much better 2026 than 2025 showing by the former No. 1 draft pick. Until that happens, though,
Advantage: Giants
@Houston Texans
QBs: C.J. Stroud (61.7) vs.Dart (57.5)
Stroud is viewed as having taken a step back last season. You wouldn’t really know it, though, from his QBR, which was 11th best in the NFL. Stroud has developed the kind of chemistry with big WR Nico Collins that Dart hopes to establish with Malachi Fields. The Texans’ ferocious defense, playing at home, will likely tilt the game in Houston’s direction, but as far as the QB matchup goes,
(Slight) advantage: Texans
Jacksonville Jaguars
QBs: Trevor Lawrence (58.3) vs. Dart (57.5)
The Jaguars finally began to show some of the promise that accompanied their drafting of Trevor Lawrence in 2021 last season. Lawrence’s 58.3 QBR was pretty consistent with what it has been since his second year in the NFL, but it was good for 14th in the league and very similar to Dart’s. That said, Lawrence’s 29 TD passes were a career high. His passing EPA of 56.8 was considerably higher than Dart’s, albeit in 5 more starts; his 17.7 rushing ERA was noticeably less than Dart’s but still on the high end of the distribution for NFL QBs. Lawrence isn’t the runner that Dart is but it is a weapon for him; he is a more accomplished passer at this point in Dart’s career.
(Slight) advantage: Jaguars
@IndianapolisColts
QBs: Daniel Jones (63.0) vs. Dart (57.5)
Jones had a career resurgence in his first year as a Colt before being injured, though his 63.0 QBR, good for 8th in the NFL, was almost identical to the 62.9 he put up as a Giant in their playoff season. Surprisingly, Jones did it mostly through the air, with a 51.7 passing EPA and only a 3.3 rushing EPA. At this point in his career, Jones is a more accomplished passer than Dart, though some of that may be attributed to a better receiving corps. Jones got off to a great start in 2025, but the league seemed to be catching up with the Colts’ offense by the time he was injured. There is a sense that Dart already exhibits better arm talent and moves around the pocket better than Jones. Giants fans will have a chance to decide for themselves when they face each other.
(Slight) advantage: Colts
Cleveland Browns
QBs: Shedeur Sanders (18.9) vs. Dart (57.5)
Nominally, Sanders is the first-string quarterback for the Browns as of this writing. Who knows who will start the season, though? It could be Deshaun Watson. It could be Dillon Gabriel (31.4). Maybe it could even be Brendan Sorsby. The Giants don’t play the Browns until just before Christmas, so there’s almost a full season of what could be another quarterback carousel in Cleveland by the time the Giants and Browns play. Barring a return of Watson to his rookie form, when he had a career high 83.7 QBR in Houston, this matchup will favor the Giants.
Advantage: Giants
The final tally
Putting it all together, that gives the Giants a quarterback advantage in six of their games, a disadvantage in nine, and two draws. If you think QB play is the key to winning and that the defense will at least be respectable, that would predict a 2026 Giants team that is improved from last season but still a ways from being a contender. To be honest, I’ve been thinking 7-10 for the 2026 Giants even before Ed invited me to write this piece, so I can’t be surprised it worked out this way. (I promise I didn’t tally up the results until I got through all 17 games.)
Realistically, we can’t know at this point how good the Giants’ defense is going to be this season, and defense does matter, as the 2025 Giants unfortunately showed. Last season Dart faced six QBs with a higher QBR than he had. He won two of those (against Prescott and Justin Herbert), but lost to Drake Maye, Bo Nix, Mac Jones, and Caleb Williams, a lot of that due to the failures of the defense. He defeated two QBs with a lower QBR (Hurts and Geno Smith) but lost to four QBs with a lower QBR: Tyler Shough, Jalen Hurts (once), Marcus Mariota, and J.J. McCarthy. Three of those four losses were games in which Dart did not play well.
More importantly, we don’t know whether Dart will take the next step in his development and start to knock on the door of the elite QB group. Maye, Williams, and Nix from the 2024 class did take that next step in their sophomore year and all of them wound up in the playoffs. Still, the fact that the Giants enter the season with a starting QB (and in fact a backup QB as well) who can go toe-to-toe with most of the Giants’ opponents is itself something we haven’t experienced in a few years.
