The Phoenix Suns are limping into the final parts of the season. Looking to finish as the seventh seed in the West, the team appears to have a hard first-round matchup if they stay in seventh heading into the playoffs.
Here are three reasons why Phoenix will be a first-round exit this year:
Lack of Playoff Experience and Star Power
It’s possible the Suns’ first-round opponent will be the San Antonio Spurs, who, like the Suns, have little playoff experience outside of Luke Kornet and Harrison Barnes.
The Spurs would be likely to take the cake
in a series against Phoenix because, one: they employ an alien, Victor Wembanyama, who is likely to finish top-five in MVP voting and be an All-NBA First Team selection; but two: they boast more top-end talent. Both Wembanyama and De’Aaron Fox made the All-Star team, Stephon Castle looks to be an All-NBA selection, and Keldon Johnson is the odds-on favorite to win Sixth Man of the Year.
Dillon Brooks, Mark Williams, and Jalen Green surrounding Devin Booker do not provide the same upside that the Spurs’ players do around Wembanyama, and the team has no experience playing in playoff situations as a group.
While both teams have had surprising seasons based on collective team efforts, when rotations shrink in April, the Spurs will have more players to rely on. If the Suns play the Thunder in the first round, the lack of experience and star power problems remain prevalent, but Oklahoma City has experience as a group.
Continuity Struggles
The Suns have been banged up. Williams and Brooks remain out due to foot and hand injuries, respectively. Grayson Allen and Jordan Goodwin have both recently dealt with lower-body injuries, and Jalen Green already missed more than half the season with his hamstring problems.
In order to pull off an upset, Phoenix will need to be possessing some of their best “vibes” as a team all year, and unfortunately, because of injuries, that’s not likely to happen. Brooks and Williams should return by the end of the season, but with fewer than 10 games left in the year, it’s not enough time for a team that’s had a lot of players go in and out of the lineup to build enough continuity to pull off a major upset.
We still don’t fully know what the Suns’ starting lineup is when everyone on the team is healthy. Does Royce O’Neale or Collin Gillespie move to the bench when Brooks returns?
Historical Precedent
For the sake of this article, let’s assume the Suns stay in seventh like they have nearly all year and beat their first-round opponent in the play-in.
Since the playoff field expanded in 1984, only seven 7th seeds have made it past the first round. While it’s happened twice in the last three seasons, both were under extenuating circumstances. When the Lakers beat the Grizzlies in 2023, Los Angeles had the two best players in the series, and Memphis and their best player was out of rhythm after being suspended.
Last season, when the Warriors beat the Rockets, Golden State made a blockbuster trade for Jimmy Butler midway through the year, and was playing nothing like a 7th seed. With Steph Curry playing at an All-NBA level, Golden State was always going to have the best player in the series against a young Houston team.
If recent history shows how to pull off the upset, you need to have at least the best player in the series. Devin Booker is having a strong year—he made his fifth All-Star appearance—but whether the Suns play the Thunder or the Spurs, the odds will be stacked against them.
If they do end up in 8th, their historical odds of winning in the first round are even lower.
Do you agree? Why or why not?
