What a difference a couple of weeks can make. After the first two games of the season, the Atlanta Falcons were left for dead by analysts, pundits, and a significant portion of their own fanbase. They were 0-2, Cooper Rush had played like one of the worst quarterbacks in the league, and the entire operation outside of the defense looked sloppy and disjointed.
Two weeks later, the Falcons are back at .500, the hottest offense and one of the hottest defenses in the league, and looking like a surging
team to be reckoned with. If you had asked any of us in Week 2 whether the Falcons could win Sunday Night Football against the typically fearsome Baltimore Ravens, we would have laughed. Now I think it’s fair to suggest Atlanta should be the favorite.
How did we get here? A combination of rapid progress, the return of Michael Penix Jr., a coaching staff settling in, and now some poor injury luck for Baltimore. Let’s talk about the matchup.
Team rankings
Almost across the board, the Ravens are the better team thus far in 2026. They’ve gotten more turnovers, turned the ball over less frequently, passed effectively, defended effectively, and so forth. They just don’t have quite the same caliber of run game or run defense as the Falcons.
For reasons we’ll discuss below, though, this isn’t quite the true measure of either team at this moment. As we all know, the Falcons’ awful start heavily tilted their offensive numbers and turnover numbers, and they don’t even look like the same team the past two weeks. The Ravens, meanwhile, are dealing with injuries that damage their short-term outlook.
How the Ravens have changed in 2026
The biggest change, of course, is the departure of John Harbaugh. He had been Baltimore’s coach since 2008, winning a Super Bowl in 2012 and compiling a 180-113 record with the Ravens, but three frustrating playoff exits in a row and an 8-9 record in 2025 were enough to get him up out of there. Former Chargers defensive coordinator Jessie Minter took over as the team’s head coach this offseason.
After nearly trading for Maxx Crosby before he failed a physical, the Ravens signed Trey Hendrickson, who is a mighty fine consolation prize. They added underrated former Falcons safety Jaylinn Hawkins, guard John Simpson, former Falcons center Jovaughn Gwyn, blocking tight end Durham Smythe, and center Danny Pinter. They should have had their center depth taken care of at that point, but due to some truly incredible injury luck, that would not hold.
Guard Vega Ioane joined as their first round pick, and due to their dire center situation, will be making a start at the position against the Falcons. They had a ton of picks and added talented young wideouts Ja’Kobi Lane and Elijah Sarratt, defensive end Zion Young, tight end Matthew Hibner, and one of my favorite running backs of this past class in Adam Randall. An already talented roster got an infusion of youth, and it’s little surprise that Baltimore remains one of the most talented teams in the league despite injuries and a new coaching staff taking over.
What to know about Week 5
A full-strength Ravens team is a very tough out. The Falcons have lost four of their past five games against Baltimore and last won in 2010, and their 2022 matchup was a slopfest where Atlanta was beaten 17-9. There’s a new coach for the Ravens, but aside from an inexplicable loss to the Saints, the Ravens have gone right back to winning football and stand 3-1.
But this is far from a full-strength Ravens team. Their offensive line has been wracked by heavy injuries to center, where they’re set to start rookie Vega Ioane after centers Danny Pinter, Ethan Pocic, and Jovaughn Gwyn were all placed on injured reserve. Ioane may have a bright future at center, but he certainly wasn’t expected to play there this year, and the team won’t get new trade acquisition Cam Jurgens into the lineup until after this week. That presses Andrew Voorhees into starting duties at left guard, and his work in run blocking in particular has been shaky throughout his career.
Promising rookie receiver Ja’Kobi Lane is out. Top-shelf pass rusher Trey Hendrickson may be out. Kick returner and receiver Chris Moore is banged up. Key blocking tight end Durham Smythe is out. And by far worst of all, Lamar Jackson is very likely to miss Week 5.
That all adds up to a team well shy of full strength, one weak on the interior of their offensive line and with a backup quarterback who has not historically thrived under pressure. The Ravens are still a damn good team—they can bring Derrick Henry to bear on this run defense, Tyler Huntley moves well and limits mistakes at quarterback, and the defense is still very talented—but their specific weaknesses line up with some of Atlanta’s strengths. With Zay Flowers, Marlon Humphrey, Rashod Bateman, and even Voorhees banged up heading into the week, this could be a very diminished offense missing a couple of key defensive pieces.
The danger is that the Ravens can still punish sloppiness and mistakes. Henry is, impossibly, still doing this at age 32 and has the 13th best success rate in the league and seven touchdowns already. Huntley has been around a long time now and is an assured passer at this stage of his career who can get the ball out quickly and escape from pressure, prolonging plays and giving this passing game a fighting chance. I think the Falcons underestimate him at their own peril. The receiving corps is roughed up, but if Flowers plays, he’s a major threat who has been one of the more efficient receivers in the league this year, with Rashod Bateman quietly finding his footing as well. If Atlanta can’t generate consistent pressure and can’t wrap up Henry, there’s game-changing big play potential still alive in this offense. If the defense looks like it has the past couple of weeks, though? That’ll do nicely.
Offensively, Atlanta has to beware Kyle Hamilton but can pick on these safeties otherwise. Malaki Starks and Jaylinn Hawkins are both scuffling in coverage and will have the tall task of picking up Kyle Pitts and serving as insurance against Drake London and Bijan Robinson breaking big gains; the Ravens run defense has also been lackluster by their standards in 2026. This is still a group that can hurt you—there’s a healthy pass rush here even if Hendrickson is out or limited, and Hamilton is an all-world caliber safety—but it’s going to be tougher sledding than it has been in years past. If the Falcons stick with a run-first gameplan, they should be able to make plenty of headway.
Special teams is solid enough in Baltimore, but their best kick returner Chris Moore (who is also a solid receiving option) is working his way back after missing last week. Tyler Loop has been nails from long distance but has missed two of his four kicks from 40-49 yards; that’s sort of the opposite problem Atlanta has with Nick Folk, who they don’t appear to trust from distance.
Oh, and on top of all that, the Ravens are third in the NFL in penalties with 39 and second in penalty yardage at 329, with the second-highest false start total in the league working against an aggressive, attacking Falcons front.
The circumstances here—the potent primetime Falcons, their hot play, being at home, the Ravens being so dinged up and minus Jackson—set this up for Atlanta to win if they can just seize the opportunity and play the caliber of football they’ve managed these past two weeks. This is about as vulnerable as a Ravens team as you’ll see, and the Falcons must avoid getting in the habit of relaxing against manageable opponents like they so often did in the past three eras of Atlanta football.
