The NL Central will never be confused with a juggernaut division. Featuring two teams with owners with self-imposed spending limits, a budget organization that makes up for it with elite scouting and development, and a former giant embracing a rebuild, the Cubs enter 2026 in another stratosphere when it comes to spending in the division, with no other team within $90 million of their projected luxury tax salary.
But the Cubs have hesitated on going all-in with his opportunity, even after the cheaper
Brewers outperformed them last season. They made some moves, but it’s unclear if they’ve put themselves in a position to be better in 2026 and get closer to the league-wide goal of knocking off the back-to-back champion Dodgers.
2025 record: 92-70 (2nd, NL Central)
2026 FanGraphs projection: 85-77 (1st, NL Central)
Kyle Tucker, whom the Cubs paid a steep price for last offseason, is out the door after an up-and-down year. While the Cubs were never quite interested in meeting his asking price, they were involved in the free agent market, eventually inking former Astros and Red Sox third baseman Alex Bregman to a huge five-year deal to solidify one of MLB’s best infields along with Nico Hoerner, Dansby Swanson, and Michael Busch.
But aside from Bregman, the biggest free agent signing they had was a two-year, $14.5 million deal for Phil Maton. In fact, much of their offseason, aside from Bregman and the trade for former Marlins’ arm Edward Cabrera, was focused on the bullpen, additionally signing Hunter Harvey, Hoby Milner, and Shelby Miller. As for position players, they signed a few former MLB outfielders to minor league deals, so overall, it was a two-move offseason.
They didn’t necessarily need to do much to prop up one of the majors’ best lineups that doesn’t have many, if any, holes. With Tucker’s departure freeing up a spot in the outfield, the biggest question appears to be what the team will do at DH. Seiya Suzuki isn’t a great defender, but he’ll get more reps in the outfield this year while they move guys around to get bats like Moisés Ballesteros and Matt Shaw in the lineup. They could also fill out their bench with players like non-roster invitees Dylan Carlson, Michael Conforto, or Chas McCormick. Their decision on that end may depend on how much they want Suzuki in the field.
Shota Imanaga’s extremely complicated contract options resulted in a one-year deal, which has him back to once again lead a Cubs rotation with a lot of upside. Cade Horton was spectacular in 2025 and will look to build upon his 2025 NL ROTY runner-up performance, while Matthew Boyd is coming off a resurgent All-Star campaign. Cabrera is the wild card, making a career-high 26 starts in 2025 with the Marlins after injuries hampered him in his first few years in the league. Former Yankee Jameson Taillon figures to start the year as the fifth starter as former all-star Justin Steele recovers from his 2025 Tommy John surgery.
Daniel Palencia came out of nowhere for the Cubs and became their closer during 2025, posting a 2.91 ERA with 22 saves after entering the year with an ERA north of five in 43 career innings. He’ll be set up by a bunch of their reliever acquisitions and a pair of long relievers who can make some spot starts during the year in Javier Assad and Colin Rea.
The NL Central figures to be a two-team race between them and the resourceful Brewers, who are once again trying to moneyball their way to a division title. But after trading Freddy Peralta and continuing to have a payroll under $150 million, is this the year they slow down? The Cubs will be towards the top of the league in runs with their deep lineup, so all eyes will be on how their pitching holds up. They got a lot of quality outings from starters entering their mid-30s and lost two of their best relievers in Brad Keller and Drew Pomeranz. What if the pendulum swings the other way?
Even if those Brewers make it out on top of the NL Central again, the Cubs figure to be in a good position for a Wild Card, but the biggest questions with them might be what happens come playoff time. Craig Counsell was extremely aggressive with his bullpen in the 2025 postseason, and they got absolutely no length from any of their starters. Come October, will they be able to get more length?
In the NL pecking order, the Dodgers and Phillies feel comfortable at 1 and 2. The Cubs want to be No. 3, but to get there, they’ll need good health, better consistency, and a rotation that’s able to get outs in October.
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