The San Francisco 49ers are going to have to find a way to grind out wins during the next few games on their schedule to give themselves some wiggle room when they face potential playoff teams in the final
three weeks of the season.
In this week’s stock up and stock down report, we take a look at Brock Purdy, the red zone offense, why the special teams units are trending in the right direction, and whether the defense can manufacture enough stops when it matters.
Brock Purdy adding an explosive element to the 49ers’ passing game
Expected Points Added is a stat that measures how well a team performs relative to expectations on a play-by-play basis. It is a team stat. Like any other statistic, it has its flaws. For example, if Brock Purdy throws a 30-yard touchdown pass to George Kittle, and we can see that the pass was 30 air yards, it’s calculated the same if Purdy threw a 30-yard screen pass to Christian McCaffrey, and he does all of the work.
The 49ers had their second-highest dropback EPA in Week 11 since Week 5:
Week 11: 0.345
Week 10: 0.295
Week 9: 0.436
Week 8: -0.039
Week 7: 0.090
Week 6: -0.122
Week 5: 0.279
Arizona was coming off a week where it looked like the Seahawks offense had a field day against them, but the reality is the Cardinals are an above-average defense. They are 11th in EPA per dropback on the season.
But Purdy completed six passes over 10 yards, including two over 20. On throws beyond ten yards, Purdy was 6-for-8 for 99 yards and a pair of touchdowns. We also saw, albeit almost getting him into trouble, how Brock’s mobility aids his offensive line and creates opportunities down the field.
Pushing the ball down the field and adding an explosive element to the offense in limited opportunities should be an encouraging sign. There will be moments, specifically late in the year, when the Niners will need a high-flying offense to keep pace with their opponents. Week 11 proved they have what it takes, which is promising considering Ricky Pearsall spent most of the game running cardio.
The 49ers red zone offense
One of the biggest differences in the outcome of both games against the Cardinals for the 49ers this season was the effectiveness in the red zone. In Week 3, the offense was 1-for-4. Even in a Week 5 win against the Los Angeles Rams, the 49ers were 2-for-5. They only made it to the red zone twice against Tampa Bay the following week. They were much better in the rematch against the Rams, going 4-for-5, but you don’t get a second crack at a team in the postseason.
Last week, Skyy Moore did everything but score on the opening kickoff. We won’t give them credit for scoring on 1st & goal from the one-yard line. But on the next red zone trip, all it took was one play on 1st & goal from the nine-yard line. We see it all too often. A team has a first and goal from outside the five and settles for a field goal.
Converting a turnover into a touchdown was another positive development. Targeting George Kittle on an isolation route on 3rd & goal was even more impressive. Kittle, as he tends to do, won easily to give the Niners a 35-10 lead. McCaffrey was not going to be denied on the final red zone trip. The lone red zone trip that didn’t result in six points happened on a Colton McKivitz sack.
Scoring at an 80 percent clip isn’t sustainable, but you could see how Purdy raises the ceiling of the offense, even in the low red zone. This is a team that will need to score touchdowns and not settle for field goals based on how the defense has performed. They are better equipped to do so with Purdy under center.
