We have talked a bit about some of the names on the free agent market. Players like Dylan Cease, Pete Alonso and Alex Bregman would be dream targets for the Nats. However, there is another side of free agency
we have not touched on. Every year, we see new Japanese stars come over to the States, and this year is no different.
With a change in regime, could the Nationals get more involved in the Japanese market? While the Red Sox did not tap into the Asian market like the Dodgers while Paul Toboni was there, he does have some experience with Japanese players. The Red Sox invested heavily in Masataka Yoshida in 2023, a move that has had mixed results.
Could Toboni try and get aggressive in the Asian market, and if so, who could be some targets? Well, the Nationals have not historically been involved in the Asian market. In fact, they did not sign a player directly out of Asia until Shinnosuke Ogasawara signed last winter. However, with a new regime and some strong names, now could be the time to strike.
The three most exciting names from Japan this winter are Tatsuya Imai, Munetaka Murakami and Kazuma Okamoto. Lance Brozdowski made a great video breaking down those three, as well as a couple of other players to keep an eye on.
My favorite of the trio is Imai, who is a right handed pitcher. In the last few years, we have seen many Japanese arms have very smooth transitions. Guys like Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shota Imanaga took to the MLB like ducks to water. Imai seems like he could be the next guy to do this.
As a 27 year old, Imai posted a sub-2 ERA in the NPB and also had plenty of strikeouts. Despite being a small 5’11 154 pounds, pitchers like Yamamoto have shown that size is not everything. Even with that slight frame, he averaged 95 MPH on his fastball this past season.
One of the most unique things about Imai is his low release height. His 5 foot release height is well below the MLB average. That gives him plenty of deception and helps his heater play up. Imai also has a very good slider and splitter, as well as good command. He seems like one of those Japanese arms that is ready to go right from the rip.
It will probably cost over $100 million to sign him, so that will probably scare off the frugal Lerner family. However, he might be the best starter on the market. His combination of youth, stuff and command is unmatched. Imai is worth that big price tag.
The next guy I am going to talk about is the most famous player of the three. Munetaka Murakami has been considered a big talent out of Japan for a long time. He is one of the best sluggers Japan has seen in a long time. At just 25 years old, Murakami has hit 246 NPB home runs. In 2022, Murakami hit 56 home runs.
Another positive for Murakami is that youth. Out of all these players, he fits the Nats timeline the best. He will be just 26 years old next season, so he could be the Nats first baseman for years to come.
The slugger also had some big moments in the 2023 WBC, including a home run against team USA. Murakami hit an absolute moonshot against Merrill Kelly. That raw power is the main attraction for teams. He can absolutely be a 30 plus home run bat in the MLB.
However, there are some holes in his game. Since that 2022 season, Murakami has not been quite the same. His contact rates are very low and raise some serious red flags. If he is striking out a lot against NPB pitching, what will happen when he sees MLB pitching?
He is also likely to be a first baseman or DH, despite playing some third base in Japan. For a guy who will get well over $100 million, Murakami is a big risk. If he hits, he could be a 40 home run slugger in the middle of a lineup. However, there is some big bust potential here, which is why I would be wary.
The last guy I am going to talk about is another slugger in Kazuma Okamoto. Like Murakami, he is a 3B/1B type, but his defense is seen as better. Okamoto also makes a lot more contact than Murakami, which makes his projection a lot safer.
He turns 30 years old in June, but we have seen older Japanese free agents thrive in the MLB. A lot of his profile reminds me a lot of Seiya Suzuki. While he does not have the raw power of Suzuki, he still has juice and that feel to hit. He seems like a high probability bet to be a contributor in an MLB lineup.
He will not be as expensive as Imai or Murakami, but he is older. Something like a 4-year $60 million would make some sense. That would entice me if I were the Nats. He could immediately slide in and provide stability at first base, a position the Nats have needed for a while.
Will the Nats sign any of these guys, or anyone from Japan, probably not, but it is worth exploring. If the Nats are more willing to spend, but don’t want older free agents like Bregman, Alonso or Framber Valdez, these Japanese players are worth considering. They also do not have qualifying offers attached to them, which means the Nats can sign them without giving up draft picks.
Given Toboni’s background and how he is building his front office, building through the draft will be prioritized. Signing these Japanese players is a way to get premium talent without giving up draft capital. With a new forward thinking front office, this could be something to watch this winter.
