The Buffalo Bills and Minnesota Vikings will provide the football world a rather unique matchup in Week 9 on Monday Night Football.
It will mark just the seventh time since 2017 that the No. 1 offense in EPA per play will meet the No. 1 defense in EPA allowed per play.
Even if you’re not a big analytics enthusiast, you can be assured that EPA per play is a truer measure of a unit’s quality than yards per game or points per game metrics traditionally used in offensive and defensive rankings.
Here are
the previous six contests that pitted No. 1 offense vs. No. 1 defense and their results:
Overall that equates to an even 3-3 record. So recent history suggests there’s no clear advantage for the top-ranked offense or defense.
If we check all the way back to 2001 — which then includes nine additional of these specific games — the team with the No. 1 offense is 10-6 in these matchups. A slight advantage over the past 25 years, but nothing drastic.
The average points scored for the No. 1 offense was 25.6. The average EPA per play for the No. 1 offense entering the game was, naturally, a very high +0.217. The average EPA per play in the game against the No. 1 defense was just +0.059, which for context, would place between the No. 9-ranked Patriots and No. 8-ranked Bears (in offensive EPA per play) right now.
However, seven of those 16 matchups featured the No. 1 offense managing a negative EPA per play against the No. 1 defense.
As expected, this unique matchup has been, for the most part, evenly matched… with a reasonably minor edge to the club with the No. 1 offense.
We are in for a treat in Bills – Vikings on MNF.
