Week 9 of the 2026 season is here, and this week marks the first of four straight weeks with five games to discuss. Two nonconference clashes will take place this week, including one featuring an unexpected national title contender. All but one game has a double-digit spread this week, so while this is certainly an interesting slate, I believe that this week will not produce competitive football overall. Let’s get right into the MW slate in Week 9.
UConn Huskies (4-3) at Air Force Falcons (5-2)
Date and Time: Saturday, Oct. 31, 2026, 1:00 p.m.
MDT
Network: MW+
Spread: AFA -1.5
Preview: In one of the odder matchups of the late-season slate, UConn travels to Colorado Springs for the back end of a home-and-home series against the Falcons. The Huskies took last year’s matchup in Storrs, 26-16, winning the first game ever played between the two schools. Air Force will be gunning for revenge in this matchup and will clinch a berth in a bowl game if they manage to pull it off.
UConn, despite losing previous head coach Jim Mora to Colorado State in the offseason, has still assembled a great offense led by QB Kalieb Osborne and RB Cyncir Bowers. The Huskies score an average of 35.6 PPG, ranking 29th in the country. This stat is helped out by their defense, ranking 28th in the country in rush yards per game (107.6). Unfortunately, a large part of that comes from the fact that the Huskies rank 136th in the nation in passing yards per game (284.7). Obviously, the Huskies’ atrocious pass defense will not be tested against a triple-option team, but I find it hard to believe their run defense is nearly as good as what their stat book might tell you.
UConn is a good team, but the Falcons are simply too good on the ground. They had a bad day last week in terms of holding onto the football, fumbling thrice against the Cowboys, but I would imagine they will be much better in that regard this time around. UConn will certainly test the Falcons, but Osborne will probably end up throwing a couple of interceptions against Air Force’s stingy pass defense, which will be the difference at the end of the day.
Prediction: Air Force 31, UConn 24
Nevada Wolf Pack (3-4) at #7 UCLA Bruins (7-0)
Date and Time: Saturday, Oct. 31, 2026, 1:15 p.m. PDT
Network: Big Ten Network
Spread: UCLA -22.5
Preview: When Nevada scheduled a trip to Los Angeles to play UCLA in the Rose Bowl on Nevada Day, I doubt anyone had imagined the Bruins would be as imposing a foe as they currently are. Just a year after going 3-9 with losses to both UNLV and New Mexico, the Bruins are currently 7-0 under new coach Bob Chesney, are ranked No. 7 in the nation, and are the last undefeated team in the Big Ten Conference. Now they host the Wolf Pack, who are riding high after their win against San Jose State, and have proven to be much better this year than their record might indicate.
UCLA is led by their dominant defense, which ranks 11th in the country in points per game (15.3). Ball-hawk extraordinaire Ta’Shawn James has four interceptions on the year, leading a unit that creates turnovers on 25.9% of their drives (second in the nation behind New Mexico). JMU transfer Wayne Knight has rushed for 627 yards thus far, adding 12 touchdowns to rank third in the nation in the latter category. After missing the last two games due to injury, QB Nico Iamaleava looks set to return against the Wolf Pack, which should give the Bruins’ offense another much-needed jolt.
Adding uncertainty to this game for Nevada, they still appear to be unsure who will be behind center in Pasadena. Luke Duncan looks to have the best shot of starting, which will be massive for him given he spent the past three seasons with the Bruins, never getting much of a shot to shine. Duncan had a good start against the Spartans but must continue to avoid turning over the football. Nevada ranks second-to-last in the nation in turnover margin, creating turnovers on an abysmal 3.8% of defensive drives. Nevada’s turnover margin has been the main reason for their frustrating season thus far, and I see no reason that will not continue in Pasadena.
With the chaotic nature of the college football season thus far, I will not put it past the Wolf Pack to potentially keep this game close if they can limit mistakes. However, there have been too many examples pointing to the contrary this season that I cannot reasonably predict anything better than a typical Power 4-G6 beatdown. UCLA will press on towards a potential Big Ten title while Nevada will fall to 3-5, coming ever closer to another year without a bowl game in Reno.
Prediction: #7 UCLA 38, Nevada 17
UTEP Miners (1-6) at North Dakota State Bison (6-2)
Date and Time: Saturday, Oct. 31, 2026, 1:30 p.m. MDT, 2:30 p.m. CDT
Network: MW+
Spread: NDSU -24.5
Preview: The simple fact that this game has a larger point spread than the previous game that features a Top 10 team tells you all you need to know about the likely outcome of this matchup. North Dakota State has lost two of their last three games, putting them on the brink of missing the MW Championship game. UTEP, meanwhile, has yet to defeat an FBS opponent this season, comfortably sitting as one of the worst teams in the country. They rank near the bottom of the conference in every single offensive and defensive category, and will likely end up starting multiple backup quarterbacks once again.
Outside of a truly abysmal Nathan Hayes performance, I see absolutely no path for the Miners to keep this game close. This game will likely resemble the Miners’ demolition at the hands of rival New Mexico a few weeks ago, though Hayes will have enough incompletions to keep the game from getting quite that bad for UTEP. NDSU will roll on in their quest to win out while the Miners will be officially eliminated from bowl contention, likely finishing the year with either one or two wins.
Prediction: North Dakota State 41, UTEP 7
New Mexico Lobos (6-1) at San Jose State Spartans (4-4)
Date and Time: Saturday, Oct. 31, 2026, 1:00 p.m. PDT, 2:00 p.m. MDT
Network: MW+
Spread: UNM -14.5
Preview: When a conference foe is favored by over two touchdowns to come into your house and win, things have gone horribly wrong somewhere along the way. San Jose State gets to host their biggest game of the season by far this week, doing so against a New Mexico team that looks set to make the College Football Playoff if cards fall the right way. No one is giving SJSU a chance in this matchup, and quite frankly, they really shouldn’t.
San Jose State’s biggest strength is their dominant pass rush, ranking third in the nation in sacks (29.0). This would normally lead to success on that side of the ball, but strangely enough, they actually rank in the bottom half of the conference in most other defensive metrics. Meanwhile, the Lobos have the best defense in the conference, though they are somewhat susceptible to a good passing attack, one like what the Spartans have with Luke Weaver. Unfortunately, the Spartans have recently become known for trying to be the smartest people in the room.
Despite Weaver having by far the most experience and the Spartans ranking second in the conference in passing yards, SJSU’s coaching staff has inexplicably benched their quarterback during the majority of their last two games. This came to a head when Weaver was inserted into the fourth quarter of the Spartans’ loss to Nevada last week, immediately scoring points on two of his three drives when his team was already down by far too much to make a comeback. I honestly have no idea what the Spartans have seen in their offense that wasn’t to their liking, but I wouldn’t be all that surprised if they couldn’t answer that If they continue to trot out either of the QBs they did in the first three quarters against Nevada, this game could become an ugly blowout very quickly.
The below prediction is made with the assumption that the Spartans will do the smart thing and start Weaver at QB. If that happens, I think the Spartans will perform well for a while. This game should look somewhat similar to the Lobos’ escape from Hawaii in Honolulu, just with more offense due to SJSU’s far better squad on that side of the ball. The Lobos will end up pulling away in the fourth quarter for their seventh win of the season, just a few games away from locking up a berth in the conference championship game.
Prediction: New Mexico 35, San Jose State 21
Northern Illinois Huskies (0-7) at UNLV Rebels (4-3)
Date and Time: Saturday, Oct. 31, 2026, 1:00 p.m. PDT, 2:00 p.m. MDT
Network: MW+
Spread: UNLV -24.5
Preview: Finally, we end the week with what is sure to be yet another blowout. UNLV may not be the greatest team in the conference, but they still have a great deal of offensive talent and are well-rested after a week off. Meanwhile, NIU is the last remaining winless team in the nation, losing by an average of nearly 27 points per game against FBS competition this season. This is an absurd mismatch; one that somehow matches the previously mentioned UTEP-NDSU game in terms of its disgusting point spread prediction.
The Huskies have by far the worst defense in the Mountain West, giving up an average of an atrocious 38.6 PPG, which ranks 136th in the FBS. They only have had two games this season where they allowed less than 35 points, and just took what should have been a competitive game against Hawaii and allowed the Warriors’ struggling offense to drop 56 points on their heads. I can only imagine what Jet Thomas, Jackson Arnold and the UNLV offense are capable of doing to a defense playing this poorly. Northern Illinois will probably end up scoring between seven and 10 points in the first half, then will not score in the second half, as is the case in most of their games. Meanwhile, the Rebels will run away to an easy victory to put themselves just one win away from their fourth straight bowl berth with four games left to play.
Prediction: UNLV 45, Northern Illinois 10
