Josh Naylor will play and bat fourth for the Mariners in Game 1.
The Mariners and Tigers are set to play Saturday in the first game of the ALDS. George Kirby will take the mound for the Mariners, and Troy
Melton will throw (at least a few innings) for the Tigers.
It goes without saying every game in the playoffs is crucial, but this first game “feels” especially important. The Tigers come to town off an arduous three-game series in Cleveland that saw them dig into the depths of their pitching staff. With the Tigers set for a quasi-bullpen day in Game 1, the Mariners have an opportunity to keep the pressure on and guarantee at least even footing when the series heads to Detroit next week.
The Mariners’ lineup on Saturday will indeed include Naylor. His wife, Chantel Collado, is expecting a baby soon, meaning Naylor is expected to miss time on the paternity list early in the playoffs. But that day is not today (or at least, not at yet today).
The Mariners did announce they will be without Bryan Woo for the entire ALDS as he continues to recover from a pectoral injury. For other updates on the Mariners’ roster as the postseason begins, John Trupin has you covered.
Pitching Matchup
Kirby gets the start for the Mariners. After a bit of an up-and-down year, he put together three solid outings to end the regular season: 17.1 innings pitched, 31 strikeouts, one walk and a 2.16 FIP. Kate Preusser profiled him for the site on Friday.
Melton, 24, began the season in AAA as the Tigers sixth ranked prospect and 93rd overall in MLB, according to Fangraphs. He will get the start in game one, though how long he goes is unclear. Just four of his 16 outings this year have come as a starter, with the rest out of the bullpen in a swing-man role. The Detroit Free Press reported Friday that Melton could be limited to 40-50 pitches with the bullpen picking up thereafter, but manager A.J. Hinch isn’t trying to “script out too much because I don’t know how the game is going to go.”
Melton’s fastball sits in the upper 90s and has quickly become one of the top whiff-inducing fastballs in MLB (29.7% ranks in the top 10%). His slider ranks as 11th best in MLB on a rate basis with a similar propensity to generate swing-and-miss. But he only throws that slider to right-hand hitters and hasn’t found a good mix to get lefties out. His FIP against righties in 2025 is 3.76; his FIP against lefties is 5.33.
After Melton, the Tigers’ will likely turn to their bottom-ranked bullpen.
Lineups
The Mariners will send a fairly predictable lineup to face Melton — their “we’re facing a righty starter” lineup they ran with most of September. The biggest question (outside of Naylor’s availability) would be how they would manage the DH spot. Dominic Canzone will get that distinction Saturday, with Victor Robles in right field and Jorge Polanco at 2B.
This is likely the lineup the Mariners run throughout the entire game, even as the Tigers begin to cycle through their bullpen (which includes two lefties). After using pinch hitters at an unprecedented rate through the first several months of the season, the Mariners have subbed at one the lowest rates in MLB since the trade deadline. The only batters in the starting lineup with a sub-100 wRC+ against LHP this season are Victor Robles and Eugenio Suárez; neither are likely to come out of the lineup.
The Mariners could potentially pinch run in the later innings. Leo Rivas would seem to be the strongest candidate for that role, either for Jorge Polanco or Suárez.
The Tigers will also go with a somewhat predictable lineup. It’s a solid lineup, to be sure, with mostly above average hitters. But they don’t have quite the same ultra-high quality depth as the Mariners.
That said, Kerry Carpenter is 4-for-8 with four home runs against Kirby in his career, and he’s not the only one in the Tiger’s lineup who’s thrived. Kirby’s .995 OPS allowed to the Tigers in six career starts is by the worst against any opponent he’s faced at least five times. That’s likely small sample noise, and the Tiger’s haven’t run this exact lineup each time they’ve faced him over the last four seasons. But they are a team that thrives on fastballs in the zone. It will be a strength on strength matchup, to be sure.
On This Date
The Mariners are 9-3 in the regular season on October 4; their last loss came in 1986.
They are 2-1 in the playoffs On This Date. They beat the White Sox 5-2 in the 2000 ALDS. They beat the Orioles 4-2 in the 1997 ALDS. They lost to the Yankees 7-5 in 15 innings in the 1995 ALDS.
None of that is especially notable, but I do have one fun fact I think is worth your time.
Due to a lockout that delayed the start of the 2022 regular season, MLB scheduled a few double headers for each team. And so on October 4 (the penultimate day of the season) the Mariners happened to play two games against none other than the Detroit Tigers in T-Mobile Park. The Mariners won both games. The first was a 7-6 walkoff in extras, with Luis Torrens of all people pitching the 10th inning and picking up the win. The second was a 9-6 victory on a three-hit day from Cal Raleigh, who swatted his 27th and final home run of the season into the Hit It Here Café.
Ideally, the Mariners will not need their backup catcher to pitch today. But it would be nice if their starting catcher could dump another upper decker in a win over the Tigers.
News and notes
Some other pre-game reading to get you ready before Game 1:
- John Trupin provides an update on the Mariners roster for the ALDS.
- Kate Preusser walks us through Victor Robles’ transformation in his time with the Mariners.
- Kate Preusser profiles George Kirby ahead of his Game 1 start.
- Jake Mailhot previews the ALDS matchup against the Tigers.
- John Trupin outlines the rest of the ALDS schedule (or what’s known of it so far).
- Ryan Blake details the Mariners potential home field advantage in the ALDS and beyond.
- Kate Preusser discusses Dan Wilson’s impact for the Mariners in his first full year as manager.
- The Blue Jays took Game 1 against the Yankees in Toronto in the other ALDS.
How to watch
Game time: 5:38 p.m. PDT
TV: FS1 with Adam Amin, Adam Wainwright, A.J. Pierzysnki and Tom Verducci
Radio: Seattle Sports (710 AM) with Rick Rizzs, Aaron Goldsmith and Gary Hill Jr.
For those without cable, YouTube TV offers a free trial for new subscribers. Fox One is also offering a free trial a seven-day free trial. A day pass for Sling TV is $4.99.
