One month ago, on September 15th, Bears woke up to a familiar, sobering reality. After getting shellacked by the Lions in Detroit, it felt like another long, disappointing season was in store.
Fast forward
to today, and the mood around the Bears has shifted dramatically. Don’t just take my word for it:
Folks are taking notice, especially after the season defining, gutsy win against the Washington Commanders despite a number of controversial calls. It’s been said before, but it bears repeating – previous Bears teams would have found a way to lose this game. Be it the unfair officiating, the let down after an opponent neutralizes your strong start, or an end of game sequence – everyone in America saw brutal loss brewing for the Bears.
Ben Johnson, Caleb Williams, D’Andre Swift, and co. had different thoughts. They flipped the narrative on a looming Bears loss and came out with a win against a quality opponent, and in the process may have flipped the script on their entire season.
What is the ceiling for the 2025 Chicago Bears?
Just as it is easy to get carried away after tough losses to start the season, it’s equally easy to get carried away and declare them instant contenders after beating the NFC runner ups in 2024. But I am here to say that we shouldn’t be afraid to call what we are seeing.
I think the Bears ceiling this season is a playoff victory. Do I find it likely? Not necessarily. But they have won or competed in every game this season outside of an outlier in Detroit which suggests that this team is getting better at winning close games.
Coming into the season, the Bears needed to win some tough matchups against teams like Dallas, Washington, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and San Francisco while staying competitive within their division. With two wins in their pocket in that first grouping, they’re proving capable of making a real playoff run. Let’s take a look at the rest of their schedule:
- Saints at Bears: Likely Win (4-2)
- Bears at Ravens: Toss Up, Lean Loss (4-3)
- Bears at Bengals: Likely Win (5-3)
- Giants at Bears: Toss Up, Lean Win (6-3)
- Bears at Vikings: Toss Up, Lean Win (7-3)
- Steelers at Bears: Toss Up, Lean Loss (7-4)
- Bears at Eagles: Likely Loss (7-5)
- Bears at Packers: Toss Up, Lean Loss (7-6)
- Browns at Bears: Likely Win (8-6)
- Packers at Bears: Toss Up, Lean Win (9-6)
- Bears at Niners: Toss Up, Lean Loss (9-7)
- Lions at Bears: Toss Up, Lean Loss (9-8)
Now, that’s assuming a lot, but I think 9-8 is a fairly conservative estimate for the current Bears, ultimately finishing the rest of the season 6-6, going 2-2 in the division the rest of the way. However, if you swapped each of those toss up wins and losses around, suddenly the Bears are 11-6 and firmly in the playoffs.
Their ceiling? Well, I think the best case scenario is that they go 9-3 the rest of the way with two division losses and a loss to a team like the Eagles or Niners, resulting in a 12-5 overall record. That is if this Ben Johnson machine really starts to click by the midseason gauntlet.
In that scenario, the Bears will still likely end up as a Wild Card team assuming Detroit or Green Bay wins the division, pitting them against another division winner in the Wild Card, likely a team like Tampa Bay, Philly, or San Francisco. From there, you lean on your ability to squeak out tight victories against quality teams on the road.
Their ceiling may be higher or lower than that, and the variance for this Bears team is enormous given their untapped potential. With that said, if the Bears can win a playoff game this season I would be over the moon. At this point, I see that as best case scenario. Here’s to hoping I am wrong!
