The NBA rookie extension deadline came and went on Monday with the Portland Trail Blazers failing to come to terms with former number three overall pick Scoot Henderson. The failed negotiation will result in the guard entering restricted free agency, a process that hasn’t been kind to the vast majority of players seeking their second deals.
Henderson has shown modest improvement through his first three seasons but not to the level deserved of a top three pick in a talented 2023 draft class. It wasn’t
all his fault. His drafting ushered in the departure of Damian Lillard with the subsequent expectation demanding he be just as impactful as the nine-time All Star. A ridiculous expectation for a young man just starting his NBA career.
Injuries have also factored heavily through the early part of Henderson’s career. He played 158 of a possible 246 games through three seasons. In those games, he’s delivered averages of 14.2 points on 40.4 percent from the field and 34.3 percent from three to go with 3.0 boards, 5.0 assists and 0.9 steals.
Though the time spent in the medical room has no doubt hindered his development, one thing’s for sure, if he was going to be a true star, we would have known by now. The Blazers may not have brought in Jrue Holiday and Ja Morant in consecutive years if Henderson had shown that promise.
Towards the end of last season and through the start of this campaign, including the intervening playoff run, Henderson showed he deserved to be on an NBA court playing real rotation minutes. It’s just not as the lead guard he was initially billed as. In the past, we’ve seen him trying to run an offense, striving to get teammates good shots, but the poor decision making and turnovers haven’t been great.
It now appears the 22-year-old will thrive in this league as a combo guard, someone who looks more for his own shot and who can defend at a high enough level to comfortably corral shooting guards, despite his 6’3 stature. He’s also passable as a point-of-attack defender, which is particularly helpful given the defensive flaws evidenced by Damian Lillard and Ja Morant.
This revelation is an important silver lining for Henderson. Someone who can score, pass, hit open threes and drive at open lanes will always be of value. But the correlation between his physical gifts and skillset probably doesn’t set him up for a starting role, at least in Portland.
One of the biggest issues the Blazers front office faces is that Henderson has only recently begun to excel off-ball. His exact value in this new role is unclear. It’s frustrating given he’s had three seasons to show what he can do.
Some argue he’s been held back by coaches or by a lack of starting opportunities. I’ve written a number of times that those factors shouldn’t have prevented him from showing his real talent. If he was at the level of a number three overall pick, then he would have showed it, regardless of the circumstances.
Henderson’s Perspective
The thought of going into restricted free agency would probably give most young players pause. Henderson may think he’s worthy of at least a Shaedon Sharpe-level deal (five years, $90 million) but he has to realize that if this season doesn’t go well, that amount could be a dream on the market.
From the looks of things, despite the crowded guard rotation, Henderson will be given plenty of opportunity to prove his worth, even if he is coming off the bench, especially if he can hit threes and defend at decent level.
If he does have a successful year, this conversation is irrelevant. But if he suffers another injury or goes through a lull, the money may dry up come next July. This makes me think that if there was a more modest amount on the table before last Monday, it might have been the safer bet. But I have no idea what has been discussed.
Poison Pill
If the Blazers had come to an agreement with Henderson, the guard would have been, for all intents and purposes, trade-ineligible for the next 12 months, thanks to the Poison Pill Provision.
For those unaware, if a player is traded between the time his rookie contract is extended and the following July 1, the player’s incoming value for the receiving team is the average of his current-year salary and the annual salary in each year of his extension. His current team treats his current-year salary as the outgoing figure for matching purposes. I’m going cross-eyed just typing this, suffice to say, a deal would be near impossible to execute.
Given the makeup of the Blazers backcourt, it’s highly likely that one of the Henderson, Jrue Holiday or Ja Morant trio gets dealt in the next 12 months. Lillard has a no-trade clause and although he owns a player option for the 2027-28 season, it’s unlikely he leaves again.
Moving one of the guards makes the most sense in balancing out the roster to give some bulk to the shallow wing and forward rotations. If Henderson were untradeable. General Manager Joe Cronin would have fewer ways to get the right deal done. That may have argued against extending him.
Conclusion
If Henderson played to the level of his drafting, he would have gotten a Brandon Miller-level deal ie five years, $200 million plus. The fact that he didn’t secure a smaller amount suggests the Blazers are still not sure about him after drafting him third, three years ago.
The front office now has all the leverage. If Henderson increases his production, the Blazers can either move him for similar value or wait to match any offer sheet he may sign in July. If he struggles, Cronin can also move on via trade or bring him back in restricted free agency for a deal more reflective of his abilities after having more time to observe what he can offer.
One thing is clear, via injury and inconsistent play, Henderson hasn’t demanded the same level of rookie extension afforded to the more successful members of his draft class. He now has the next six months to squeeze as much value out of his game before the stress of restricted free agency begins.
[Editorial note: Adrian didn’t mention it, but the market for restricted free agents has been notoriously weak of late. The Blazers don’t lose anything letting Henderson establish his own value on the market if nobody in that market has serious money to spend on him. Portland would have the right to match any opposing offer in restricted free agency anyway. If those offers are paltry, so much the better for the Blazers’ bottom line. The front office may have asked themselves a simple question: Why outbid yourself? —DDeckard]
