Ladies and gentleman, welcome to the NFL’s Annual Player Selection Meeting, or as it’s more commonly known, the NFL Draft. For weeks, and months, Thursday, April 23 has been a faraway dot, somewhere down the road. But April 23 has arrived at last. The endless analysis, speculation, prognostication — and let’s be honest, guessing — will come to an end over the next 72 hours, as college football’s best players hear their names called in Pittsburgh.
Round 1 of the draft takes place this evening, in prime
time, and the Giants are one of six teams with two selections in the round. Those two selections – Pick No. 5 and Pick No. 10 – are up high, and regardless of whether Big Blue trades out of either spot, or “sticks and picks”, New York is going to have outsized influence on tonight’s proceedings.
So, what are the Giants going to do with those two Top-10 picks? That’s been the topic of much debate, and the answer, as they say, is clear as mud. To help fans sort through it, we’ve been tracking mock drafts and FanDuel odds. Both of those tools can be illustrative, but obviously they’re by no means definitive. In the end, GM Joe Schoen and HC John Harbaugh are going to decide what direction is best for the team, and that could include trading out of one or both slots. Check out Big Blue View’s draft hub for all of our draft content.
At Pick 5, the mock draft favorite throughout has been Ohio State LB Sonny Styles – that is, until today. More on that in a minute. He’s been the odds favorite for most of the process as well, and still is as of noon today, but just barely. His odds have never been much shorter than 2:1, however, and his mock draft percentage peaked at right around 50%. So, he’s aways just been a “best guess”.
Here’s the final Mock Draft Tracker, published on the site this morning. For the first time, Ohio State Safety Caleb Downs has edged past Styles for the top choice at Pick No. 5, but neither is above 30%. He’s also the mockers’ top choice at Pick No. 10, and last I checked, a player can only be selected once. Downs is a player who has been linked to Big Blue throughout the draft process.
Here is Thursday’s FanDuel odds column. As a reminder, the odds are for the pick slot, not the team that currently holds the pick, and the odds aren’t a pure estimation of which players and teams are the best match – they necessarily also reflect a calculation of which players are most likely to be available at each slot.
Let’s look at how the odds for Pick 5 have moved in the last week.
- Friday morning, April 17:
Ohio State LB Sonny Styles: +190
Ohio State S Caleb Downs: +250
Miami OT Francis Mauigoa +420
Notre Dame RB Jeremiyah Love: +650
Ohio State WR Carnell Tate: +1400
ASU WR Jordyn Tyson +1900
- Wednesday morning, April 22:
Ohio State LB Sonny Styles: +185
ASU WR Jordyn Tyson +285
Notre Dame RB Jeremiyah Love: +380
Ohio State S Caleb Downs: +550
Miami OT Francis Mauigoa +950
Ohio State WR Carnell Tate: +1100
- Noon, April 23 (today):
Ohio State LB Sonny Styles: +260
ASU WR Jordyn Tyson +290
Notre Dame RB Jeremiyah Love: +320
Ohio State S Caleb Downs: +330
Miami OT Francis Mauigoa +1100
Ohio State LB Arvell Reese +1100
Ohio State WR Carnell Tate +1300
Here are some quick takeaways from the odds:
First and foremost, it’s abundantly clear that nobody knows what the Giants are going to do at Pick 5, and that’s part of why the odds have jumped around so much. With a quarterback and at least one and probably two edge rushers almost certain to go in the four slots before they pick, they’re going to have good options, at multiple positions of need. Four players, who all play different positions on the football field, are tightly bunched at the top, led by Styles, but none are better than 2.5:1. The rise of Tyson was detailed in my article yesterday. Love might not make it to Pick 5 (his pick slot Over/Under is 4.5), but the other top choices listed are likely to be there. The pick slot Over/Under for Styles is 5.5
Second, if the Giants do plan to stick and pick, then part of their strategy at Pick 5 will be trying to figure out which players that they covet have the best chance of making it back to them at Pick 10. The odds for Pick 10 – which the Giants have only had since Saturday — aren’t that meaningful, since it’s so hard to know which players will make it there. Downs has the shortest odds there, at +300. Right behind him is Tyson, at +330. As I said yesterday, those are two players who the books are linking to Big Blue heading into the draft. Of the two, Downs is the one who the books think is more likely to make it to Pick 10 (his pick slot Over/Under is 9.5, while Tyson’s is 8.5).
Third, after Pick 1, this is one of the hardest drafts to handicap in recent memory, and that’s another reason the odds are so unhelpful as a predictor. It’s not considered a strong draft, and the top prospects that the draft does offer are tightly bunched. Several of the top guys play non-premium positions, which further complicates the prognostication. The unusually high number of teams with multiple first round picks could mean more first round trades than normal, which also muddies the waters. One thing is for sure: Tonight should be fun, and full of mystery.
I’m not here to give gambling advice, and I’m as confused as everyone else at the moment. My one prediction is this: None of the “expert” mock drafts are going to look very good by the time the Seahawks make the last pick of Round 1 late this evening – if it’s even them making that pick. Oh, and a bonus prediction: The Giants will take at least one player from Ohio State in Round 1. I really went out on a limb on that one.
Enjoy the draft!
