The Minnesota Vikings head to Ford Field this week for a pivotal NFC North matchup against the 4-2 Detroit Lions. A win could put the Vikings in an early stranglehold on the NFL’s best division, especially since they’d get two of their three division wins on the road. A loss would give skeptics more fodder to call the Vikings “frauds” for another week. They’d also be buoyed by the fact that the Vikings’ next three opponents have a combined 15-5 record.
Yeah, this is a big one.
VIKINGS ON OFFENSE
I vented
about this earlier this week, so there is no need to rehash the grievances. For the fourth straight week, the Vikings offense will face another statistically awful defense – albeit one that is getting healthier. Safety Brian Branch returned last week against the Packers, and Kerby Joseph’s 21-day practice window after returning from the PUP list has apparently opened, too. He may still be a week or two away from game action, however.
Regardless, this Lions defense is anything but good. They are dead last (32nd) in total yards allowed per game, last in passing yards allowed, and 26th in points allowed per game. They’re also no better than 25th in red zone conversion allowed, success rate allowed, and EPA per play. If there are bright spots, they’re a respectable 12th in rushing yards allowed and have gotten to the quarterback as often as the Vikings this season, with 21 sacks. That surprised me, Aidan Hutchinson, or not.
What’s frustrating is that there is clear merit to the argument that the Vikings’ offense is “close.” Big plays in the passing game have been missed, either by missing downfield shots or by failing to finish them. And yes, some of it has to do with Kevin O’Connell’s deliberate transition to a more run-oriented, time-of-possession attack in 2026.
But none of that matters. The official ledger is what it is, and it’s putrid.
And here’s one more Warren Sharp post to drive the point home:
It’s got eerie vibes, like a reversal of what we went through with the defense in 2022. Sure, things were ugly, but give it time. Look at our record! Once the defense figures it out, it’ll all be fine. Yeah, sure. Last time I checked, the goal is to win a Super Bowl, not make the playoffs and bow out 6-3 to the Seahawks, 49ers, or Rams in the wild-card or divisional round. And right now, as the calendar turns to November, that’s exactly what we’re looking at.
The Vikings need to wake up and finally put 30+ points on the board against someone. Will they do it? As I noted in my last write-up, I’m officially in the “I’ll believe it when I see it” mindset. I’m done predicting a turnaround and looking like a fool in these weekly previews. To quote Michael Scott: “Fool me once, strike one. But fool me twice…strike three.”
So we’re in a holding pattern. We’re facing another terrible defense. The weather won’t be a factor, and early in the week, the offense looks nearly fully healthy again. We’ll see. Hopefully, the one week I don’t predict it will happen is the one when it actually does.
VIKINGS ON DEFENSE
As usual, this is the main event. Early on, Brian Flores struggled against a Ben Johnson-led Lions offense. The Vikings were 0-4 in those games, with the Lions never scoring fewer than 30 points and averaging 404 yards per game. Once they separated, he got the better of both the Lions’ offense and Ben Johnson in Chicago.
Last year in Detroit, Flores’s strategy clearly focused on stopping Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery first. It worked. The Lions managed only 65 yards on 20 carries (3.25 per carry). Jared Goff threw for 284 yards and two TDs, but he was under duress all day and was sacked five times for 44 yards in the wrong direction. The Lions were 5-for-17 on third downs. Flores mixed up the pressures and kept Goff off rhythm all game.
Then, at U.S. Bank Stadium in Week 17, the Lions were playing for their season, and Flores unveiled his masterpiece before a nationwide audience. That says something, given how this season has gone so far. With no help on offense, the Vikings’ defense dominated a game unlike any I can remember. Neither Gibbs nor Montgomery managed more than 2.5 yards per carry. Goff was perplexed and pummeled. He was sacked five times and threw two INTs. Three fumbles accompanied this. Overall, Flores’ unit forced six turnovers, and the Lions didn’t make the playoffs. Too bad.
Just as I conceded earlier this week that I should at least listen to the national media’s talking-head skepticism this time, the consensus view I’ve seen is that the Lions will expose the Vikings in this one. That would be fine if the previous two games I just detailed hadn’t happened. The narrative in this series has clearly shifted. As bad as the Vikings’ offense has been, I’m fairly sure they’ll surpass the 161 total yards (51 passing/65 yards on one Jordan Addison scoring run alone) we saw in Week 17.
Listen, the Lions’ offense is unquestionably dangerous, if not as good as it was under Ben Johnson. They’re top five in points per game (30.7), yards per game (397.3), passing yards per game (282.3), yards per play (6.0), success rate, pass EPA per play, and red zone TD rate. They’re really good. If anyone can drop 21+ on our D and force our offense to look at least mediocre to win, it’s them. But I can’t shake what happened in that Week 17 game last year, and this Vikings defense is even better now.
Which leads me to…
PREDICTION
If the Vikings lose this one, cries of “fraud” and predictions that 6-0 will turn into 6-4 before Thanksgiving will be everywhere. KOC and the offense have to be pissed off and fed up with the criticism and negative vibes. They’d better be. The desire to drop 30+ points has to be overwhelming. But being angry and wanting to prove the haters wrong is one thing. Actually doing it is another. As much as I want it to happen and as much as the fanbase needs it to, I’m not budging from my position: “I’ll believe it when I see it.”
That’s the bad news. The good news is that defense and special teams matter, too. And that’s what I believe will be the difference in this one. The offense does enough, aided by advantageous field position the D/ST gifted. Will the Thrill (who else?) wins it as the clock expires.
Minnesota Vikings: 17
Detroit Lions: 16
