Thanks to the nflFastR project, Pro Football Focus for the timely sources of data.
For those of you new to this, I will publish key QB stats each week judging how well the Colts’ QB performed. Yes, O-Line, receivers, and play-calling impact these numbers but they are primarily QB measures. I will probably modify the charts throughout the season. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)
People often describe a
quarterback’s performance as “good enough to win.” If that’s considered a valid critique, then this week I would say that Daniel Jones played bad enough to lose. And here’s a bunch of graphs to back that up.
HOW WELL?
mouseover definitions: arsr, edp, sg%, oz%, pr%, tip, ttt, adot, ay/c, yac, yacoe, yd/c, ac%, cpoe, aypa, drp, scr%, ta%, sck%, aa%, ny/d, ny/p, 1st%, td%, to%, qbsr, epa/p, adj/p
- Run game efficiency was about average, but the Colts leaned heavily on the pass in early-down situations. (18th ARSR; 2nd EDP)
- Jones faced a lot of pressure, but got the ball out fairly quickly with average depth. This points to an O-line that struggled to protect. (9th PR%, 21st TIP; 19th TTT; 17th ADOT)
- The passing game did not generate much after the catch or turn those completions into yardage. (25th AY/C; 20th YAC; 26th YCOE; 26th YD/C)
- Jones’ completion rate was OK, but the completions themselves weren’t especially productive. (15th AC%; 19th CPOE; 23rd AYPA)
- Four sacks, only one scramble and one throwaway meant too many pressured plays ended badly rather than being salvaged or discarded. (23rd SCR%; 25th TA%; 5th SCK%; 16th AA%)
- That left Jones toward the bottom of the league in net yardage efficiency and first-down generation. (27th NY/D; 26th NY/P; 23rd 1ST%)
- The biggest problem was the damaging plays: Jones produced only one passing touchdown while turning the ball over three times — an interception and two lost fumbles on sacks. (27th TD%; 3rd TO%)
- Overall, he was about average at sustaining positive plays, but the negative plays pushed his total value much lower. (17th QBSR; 23rd EPA/P)
Jones never really found a strength to build around. His completions were relatively short and produced little after the catch, keeping the passing production modest. Efficiency could have been salvaged with a very high completion rate, but his wasn’t that great. From there, the negative plays became the bigger problem, with sacks and turnovers dragging down an already limited performance and leaving him with a well-below-average EPA per play.
Jones had plenty of positive plays, but the damaging negatives overwhelmed them. His 20 successful plays on 43 QB plays produced a 46.5% success rate, but four sacks, an interception and the late fumble created several of the biggest negative plays of the game. Those high-cost mistakes turned a performance with a reasonable number of successful plays into poor overall value.
Jones’ recent trend continues to move in the wrong direction. His ability to consistently produce successful plays has fallen from where it was last season, while both his overall value and net yardage have also declined. Week 3 continued that pattern.
HOW FAR?
Jones had trouble getting going, with a string of incompletions keeping the passing game from establishing any early rhythm. He eventually settled in and put together a more productive stretch, but the improvement didn’t hold, as the negative plays piled up later in the game.
Jones struggled to generate much downfield production. His completed air yards stayed relatively short throughout the game, and even when he connected deeper, those gains were isolated rather than part of a sustained vertical passing attack.
Jones passing short is fine, but not making up for it with YAC and a high completion rate is not.
TO WHO?
Jones spread the ball around well with Downs, Warren and Allen having similar target volume. Warren was the most reliable target, catching 9 of 10 passes, but of course those were much shorter throws.
Downs is by far the most targeted but catching 14 of 24 is not exactly thrilling.
Nothing really of note here as the wide receiver depth and value are near or above average.
On the season, both Allen and Warren are too low value-wise.
HOW ACCURATE?
Accuracy (CPOE) was fine, but with shorter than average throws, I would have liked to have seen a higher-than-average completion rate.
HOW FAST?
Jones’ release time is pretty good. Adjusting for depth, he gets rid of it a little quicker than expected, so he’s processing well and not holding on to the ball too long.
TO WHERE?
He had a lot of success toward the right side of the field and on the left side, not so much.
On the year I see a lot of bad, a lot of meh, but not much good.
