There is a morass of guards in the middle of the NBA Draft’s lottery that the Mavericks could potentially get a chance to pick from. Granted, they likely won’t get their pick of the bunch, for various reasons that have been laid out on this site before. However, if they were able to land their pick of the group, for my money they couldn’t do any better than Illinois guard Keaton Wagler.
The basics
Keaton Wagler was born (February 3, 2027) and raised in Shawnee, Kansas. A basketball family, parents Logan and Jennifer
Wagler both played college basketball at Hutchinson Community College in the 90’s, as did his older brother Landon. His sister, Brooklyn, was part of a national championship winning team at Kansas City Kansas Community College. The consensus 261st ranked player in the country, the youngest Wagler had just two high major offers coming out of Shawnee Mission Northwest High School: Minnesota and Illinois. Keaton ended up choosing the Fighting Illini, and suffice to say, it was the correct decision.
Wagler’s coming out party was an incredible 46-point eruption in a road win over Purdue, which marked the most points a freshman has ever scored in Mackey Arena. Overall, Keaton put together a tremendous season in Champaign, averaging 18 points per game, along with over five boards and four assists to boot. That earned him an extensive list of honors, including the Big Ten freshman of the year, along with a spot on the first-team All-Big Ten team. Wagler was a consensus second-team All-American, won the Jerry West Award, which goes to the top shooting guard in the country. He was also a finalist for the Naismith Award, which goes to the best player in the country. It was only one season for Wagler at Illinois, but he left his fingerprints all over that program.
The good
- Perhaps the best facet of Wagler’s game is that he doesn’t have any real weaknesses when you look at his offensive stats. From counting stats to advanced metrics, Wagler shines as one of the best in class at all levels. Wagler boasted a 60.4% true shooting percentage while being truly elite in many of the catch all metrics, as shown below.
- Wagler isn’t the most athletic guy you’ll ever run across, but he is the best guard in the class when it comes to footwork, craftiness and changing speeds. Perhaps Wagler’s best comp is Greg Maddux. He’s not going to overwhelm you with speed, isn’t the strongest, but the remarkable savvy and technique will get him exactly where he needs to go. Wagler is an excellent driver, as his herky-jerky nature and elite manipulation of pace don’t allow defenders to sit on one move. He has an excellent step back game from deep, as Wagler is able to step back both to the right and left.
- In terms of shot diet, Wagler really does a nice job of shooting the shoots he should be taking. On the season, Wagler had a 48.2% three-point rate, while shooting basically 40% on those shots. Wagler gets nearly 40% of his total points from the three-point line, while accruing 26% of his points from the free throw line. This is a balanced scorer who doesn’t rely on any one area of the floor to get his points.
- Finally, Wagler is a great rebounder from the guard position. He had an offensive rebounding rate of almost 7%, which was 92nd percentile of guards in the country last year. Defensively, Wagler showed good effort on both the rebounding front and stocks. In the NCAA Tournament, Wagler averaged nearly six boards per 40 minutes, with a stock percentage of over 4.5%. Activity and effort aren’t an issue here.
The room to grow
- Wagler finished the year under 50% shooting on his two-pointers at just 48.9%. The main factor on this was his midrange game, which he struggled to get going at times. Specific matchups were also able to load up on his drives, showing help and bodies for his off-pace movement, and work to force him into the floater zone instead of getting all the way to the rim.
- As mentioned above, Wagler is not a plus athlete. He stands 6’6”, but at just 180 pounds, Wagler is not able to leverage his size at times. Defensively, he will struggle against physicality at times, especially with screens and if he gets taken to the block. The good news is that Wagler has room to grow into that frame, and if he can put 15 pounds of good weight on, he should be able to mitigate some of these issues.
- Part of this is due to the scheme that Illinois runs, but Wagler could not use his frame to generate many steals. I think in a more aggressive scheme, we could’ve seen Wagler play passing lanes and be, in general, more aggressive. But because we can only judge what we saw, he will walk into the league needing to prove that he can generate turnovers. One thing that mitigated the steals issue, Wagler was able to be pretty good at those swipe down blocks.
Fit with the Mavericks
Wagler would probably be the most seamless fit of anyone in this class. He has shown the ability to play well both on and off ball, is both a great spot up and off the dribble shooter and has a level of craft that allows him to overcome some athletic disadvantages to get to his spots. Early on, he can be a guy who plays off Kyrie Irving in the starting group, while also getting to run the show in some staggered minute situations. But I have very little doubt that Wagler will develop into a quality lead guard in the NBA, one who would be perfect to pair with Cooper Flagg.
NBA Comparison
Obviously, this is like a top 5% outcome as a player, but Wagler could develop into a Tyrese Haliburton type of guard. They look pretty similar when you see the handle, the shooting ability and the craft to get to their spots without being the most gifted athlete. If he can’t quite get to that level, being a nice secondary piece in the vein of a Reed Shepperd or a taller late-stage Mike Conley is within the cards.
