Happy start of the NBA Season! With the Rockets’ season kicking off at home against the Dallas Mavericks, I figured now was a good time to get into my pre-season predictions. Just a note before we start: all odds come from FanDuel, which you can view here. Additonally, if you want a more in depth breakdown of any certain player you can check out our season preview series here.
How many games will Houston win, and what seed will they be?
To start, I predict Houston will record 55 wins. This would be three more wins than last season and would likely leave Houston as a top-three
or top-four seed. For context, FanDuel has Houston at +1000 for seventh seed, +2000 for first seed, +850 for second seed seed, +1300 for eighth seed, +470 for fourth seed, +450 for third seed, and +320 for 55+ wins.
Who will be the top scorer?
For my top scorer I have Alperen Sengun, however I would not be surprised if Amen Thompson was the leading scorer, and I would be content as long as Kevin Durant is not the leading scorer BECAUSE WHY ARE WE PLACING THAT MUCH OF A BURDEN ON 38-YEAR-OLD KEVIN DURANT?
Breakout young player?
I was between Jabari Smith jr. and Reed Sheppard for breakout player, but for me once a player has seccured their second NBA contract, they are now longer qualified for breakout young player. I think Reed Sheppard will defenitley have a smaller role at times this season because of the return of Fred Vanvleet, and the additon of Marcus Smart, however, I think a smaller role may be better for him, as it will give him less pressure. Instead of being thrust into the rotation as the backup point guard after playing very few NBA rotation minutes the prior year, Reed will get consistent spot minutes allowing him to serve as an off the bench sniper. Think Gerald Green’s role of a off the bench siniper, but as a better player.
Leading bench contributor?
Now for this category, it depends on what you count as a contributor. Are you going off scoring numbers and stats, or overall impact? Depending on your answer, I have two different options for leading bench contributor: one being Marcus Smart, and the other being Tari Eason.
To start off with Smart, having someone besides Fred VanVleet who can run the offense will be nothing short of exceptional, but that’s not even where Smart fully shines. Houston is potentially adding another top NBA defender to its roster that already includes Amen Thompson, Tari Eason, and Jabari Smith Jr., along with other good defenders. Now imagine if Marcus gets his three pointer back to leauge average, or even above league average, and we are COOKING. Now the case for Tari over Marcus is that Tari is likely, in my opinion, to have higher counting stats, and the possibility that Marcus may end up starting if Fred misses time or sits out back-to-backs, but I think you can really have either Tari or Smart penciled in for the largest bench contributor. I did also consider Bogdan Bogdanovic, but I feel he is more of a cleanup crew end of the bench kinda guy who will see spot minutes on occasion.
How far will Houston go?
Now for the million-dollar question: do I expect Houston to win a championship this year? Unfortunately, as much as I would like to say they could win, I can’t say that in good conscience, as San Antonio and Oklahoma City appear to be in a tier of their own. Now could Houston win a title? Sure, but I could also wake up one day with an extra toe. I think my prediction is a second- or third-round exit, and I can see either one happening. It likely will depend on if they can avoid the Spurs/Thunder till the WCF.
Now with all that out of the way, I want to know YOUR season predictions for the Rockets season. Who do you expect to be the leading scorer? How many games do you have Houston winning? Let us know in the comments, and as always, make sure to check back at The Dream Shake for all things Houston Rockets news, analysis, and more.
