A new era begins in the first game since the firing of James Franklin.
Penn State (3-3, 0-2) vs. Iowa (4-2, 2-1)
Kickoff: 7 p.m., Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City, IA
The Betting Line: Penn State +2.5
TV: Peacock, 7 p,m., Paul Burmeister (play-by-play), Michael Robinson (analyst), Caroline Pineda (sideline)
Weather: A high of 71 during the afternoon with temps dropping to the upper-40s. Rain is expected throughout the day, with steady showers and the possibility of storms throughout the game.
COACHES:
Terry Smith
(Interim):
PENN STATE RECORD: 0-0, 1st Year
OVERALL RECORD: 0-0, 1st Year
VS. IOWA: 0-0
Kirk Ferentz:
IOWA RECORD: 208-126, 27th Year
OVERALL RECORD: 220-147, 30th Year
VS. PENN STATE: 10-9
FUN FACTS
(Fun facts is currently on hiatus, and will return once Penn State Football shows any sign of being fun again)
IOWA OFFENSE VS. PENN STATE DEFENSE
The Hawkeyes looked to the FCS ranks for their quarterback in 2025, nabbing national champion Mark Gronowski from South Dakota State. Gronowski started four successful seasons with the Jackrabbits before giving the Big Ten a try for his final year of eligibility. While Iowa’s passing game won’t get confused as an Air Raid attack, they have made improvements from a lethargic passing game from the last few years.
Gronowski has completed 65.4 percent of his passes on the season, with just three touchdown passes — all of which came against Albany and UMASS. He’s thrown three interceptions on the season, with one in each of the past two games. Gronowski is also used on designed runs, and had a season-high 55 yards and three touchdowns against Rutgers earlier in the year. He currently has five more rushing touchdowns than passing touchdowns after six games.
Sam Phillips is the big-play threat at receiver, averaging 17.5 yards on 11 catches, although he has yet to reach the end zone. Kaden Wetjen is a sure-handed senior who does most of his work near the line of scrimmage. Interestingly enough, receiver Seth Anderson has two of the team’s three touchdown receptions, but just seven catches overall this year. DJ Vonnahme is likely to follow the recent Iowa-to-NFL pipeline for tight ends, and is being used mostly in the short passing game to start his career.
Iowa uses a stable of running backs to wear out defenses, with Kamari Moulton leading the way. Freshman Xavier Williams is off to a promising start with a team-leading 7.3 yards per carry and three scores. Jaziun Patterson has also been a regular part of the rotation in his fourth season with the Hawkeyes.
Penn State’s recent struggles on defense have been largely caused by an inability to stop the run, especially in key moments. This will need to change against a Hawkeyes defense that is perfectly content to play keep away with run-heavy drives to eat up clock. The Nittany Lions defense has also clearly been missing linebacker Tony Rojas, who is not expected to return this season. This may open up opportunities for players like Keon Wylie and Anthony Specca to see meaningful time.
PENN STATE OFFENSE VS. IOWA DEFENSE
The Drew Allar era also ended on Saturday, with a fourth quarter injury forcing him out of action for the remainder of his final season at Penn State. Redshirt freshman Ethan Grunkemeyer will now get his opportunity as he makes his first career start. Grunkemeyer is 8-of-11 passing on the year, with a touchdown and no interceptions in appearances against Nevada and Villanova. He is mostly a dropback passer, especially considering the likely apprehension of using him on designed runs against a physical defense.
Kaytron Allen has been the Nittany Lions most productive player on offense this season, but has not been given many touches as he continues a regular rotation with Nicholas Singleton. We’ll see if this changes under a new(ish) regime. If there’s one shred of hope for the Penn State offense, it might be Devonte Ross. The Troy transfer scorched Iowa’s secondary for 142 yards and two touchdowns in 2024.
The Hawkeyes defense seem to be back to its lofty standards under Ferentz. They are allowing just 79 rushing yards and 167.7 passing yards per game, as well as just 13 points per contest. They recently held Indiana to just 20 points, and gave up a late touchdown that ultimately cost them an upset victory. This match-up is clearly in Iowa’s favor, with a stingy defense that will face an offense that has trouble moving the ball led by a quarterback making his first start in a hostile environment.
Iowa’s defense is well-stocked with dependable playmakers who work very well together. Linebacker Carson Sharar leds the team with 36 tackles and is adept at making plays in the backfield. Safety Zach Lutmer and cornerback TJ Hall are both standouts against the run and in coverage. Senior Max Llewellyn looks to have a promising NFL career as a passrusher, and leads the team with five sacks and three QB hurries.
Overall, this is your typical Hawkeyes defense under Ferentz that can prevent offenses from finding any type of rhythm and ensuring a low-scoring affair.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Iowa has a dependable kicker with a very big leg in Drew Stevens. The four-year starter for the Hawkeyes has connected on 80.5 percent of field goals, and is three-for-three on attempts of 50 yards or more this season, including a career-high 55-yarder. Rhys Dakin is an Aussie-style punter who is capable of flipping the field with regular punts of 50+ yards.
PREDICTION
Iowa-24, Penn State-10
Sometimes a change in messaging can help a reeling team following a coaching change. I’m not sure even the most rousing speech from Terry Smith can help get a win this Saturday.
The reality of an inexperienced quarterback making a start against a defense that makes it difficult to move the ball in front of a hostile crowd on a rainy field is far from ideal. There’s also a defense that has struggled against the run going against a run-heavy offense with a deep rotation. It’s a poor match-up all around, not considering the emotional toll of the past week.
Hopefully the team comes out swinging and proves the rest of the season is not a lost cause. However, expecting them to go into Kinnick and pull out a victory probably isn’t on the table with the current state of the team.
