For just a moment, allow us to dream. Though nobody would have ever believed it six weeks ago, with exactly half of UVA’s 2025 regular season in the books, the Virginia Cavaliers have a real-life, legitimate path to this year’s College Football Playoff. So, let’s have a little fun and break down how the ’Hoos could actually get there.
Heading into this weekend’s bye, ESPN’s Football Power Index gives Tony Elliott’s Cavaliers a 13.7% chance
to reach the College Football Playoff. For reference, that gives Virginia the 24th-best odds in the country and the second-best odds in the ACC to earn a playoff berth.
13.7% means UVA has better playoff odds than Florida State (4.5%), which has come plummeting back down to earth since its season-opening win over Alabama. Better odds than Georgia Tech (10.2%), despite the Yellow Jackets’ higher ranking in the AP Poll. And better odds than preseason No. 2 Penn State (2.3%).
So, how can the ’Hoos turn their 13.7% chance into reality? The clearest and most direct path for Virginia would be to win the ACC Championship in Charlotte on December 6th. In the new 12-team playoff format, which enters year two this postseason, the five highest-ranked conference champions earn automatic bids. So, if the ’Hoos can get themselves to Charlotte, Virginia would be 60 minutes away from an auto-bid.
And thanks to its huge wins over Florida State and Louisville the past two weeks — plus an incredibly favorable remaining schedule — Virginia has a 43.5% chance to reach the ACC title game, according to ESPN analytics.
The two highest-ranked teams in the ACC — Georgia Tech and Miami — aren’t on Virginia’s schedule, so the ’Hoos will likely enter as favorites in four of their remaining five conference matchups. A road trip to Duke is the only spot where Virginia is likely to be a slight underdog, while the ’Hoos are projected to be north of 10-point favorites against North Carolina, Wake Forest, and Virginia Tech, and about a touchdown favorite at Cal.
Virginia has a little bit of wiggle room down the stretch to reach the title game and potentially earn the auto-bid. With a win at Duke, the ’Hoos would be set up well enough in terms of tiebreakers at the top of the league standings that they could afford a loss elsewhere, depending on whether Georgia Tech and Miami were to run the table.
Without an ACC Championship and the auto-bid, Virginia would still have a path, though it would become much foggier. To earn an at-large berth, the ’Hoos can’t afford to lose more than one more time, which would have to come in the ACC title game.
In that case, a two-loss Virginia squad would be squarely on the playoff bubble and likely a hot topic of debate, as SMU was last season. The 2024 Mustangs would actually be the perfect comparison — and a positive precedent — for the ’Hoos in this hypothetical.
SMU was also a two-loss team that fell short in the ACC Championship game (a 34-31 loss to Clemson). The problem for Virginia is that the Mustangs’ other loss came to BYU, a team with CFP aspirations itself that finished No. 17 in the final playoff rankings. UVA’s loss to NC State, though a true road game, won’t hold up nearly as well and is much more of a blemish on its resume.
A key factor in this hypothetical would be how close the ’Hoos kept things in Charlotte. SMU gave Clemson a real fight in the ACC title game last season, and the hard-fought loss was likely what pushed them over the edge and into the playoffs. Virginia would have to show a similar effort and look like a contender in this two-loss scenario.
Of course, this could all be moot if the ’Hoos don’t take care of business over the back-half of the season. And while it’s fun to dream, Virginia is already exceeding even the wildest of expectations and giving the fanbase the most memorable seasons in years. For now, Tony Elliott, Chandler Morris, and company have just over a week to get ready for Washington State as the ’Hoos will look to improve to 6-1 on October 18th inside Scott Stadium.
