This Sunday, the Cleveland Browns take on the Detroit Lions. Below, we analyze a few advantages, disadvantages, or general thoughts about the two teams before getting to our predictions for the game.
A Force to be Reckoned With
After three straight games, we’ve seen the same primary theme with the Browns: the defense looks like it could be the best in the NFL, and the offense looks like one where the game flies by and they haven’t been able to achieve something. Both areas have been lacking in something, though.
For the defense,
creating turnovers has been difficult. For the offense, finding some form of an identity — even for a drive — has been a challenge. Last week, in the second half of the fourth quarter, we saw the elements that can really turn this into a different football team week in, and week out. On offense, it involved what I said the team’s best chance of an identity is: running the ball with Quinshon Judkins. He broke two big runs, and nearly finished with 100 yards rushing on the day. That happened with the Browns’ top two offensive tackles out. At best, we hope to get Jack Conklin back, which still can help a lot if he’s able to go.
On defense, it obviously involved the interception by Grant Delpit. For as intimidating as the defense has been, they need to generate some turnovers to take that next step. Great defense should help lead to easy offense, and if you pair that together, Cleveland can start being a team that opponents dread coming up on their schedule.
Unfortunately, the Detroit Lions are the last team you want to face this week (or any week, for that matter). Despite their Week 1 struggles against the Packers, they are the best team in the league at mixing it up on offense, having movement, and being aggressive (including going for it on fourth down on what might normally be key stops for the defense). Cleveland has been very impressive with their discipline over these first few weeks, so it’s a very compelling battle of great units. I just fear that we’ll see a similar scenario of what happened against the Ravens: the defense will hold strong, but eventually, you’re going to give us something, especially if the offense doesn’t hold their end of the bargain.
Quick Hitters
Defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz talked about the Lions going for it on fourth down often, and how the defense needs to be prepared for the mentality of a third down stop not meaning their job is done:
The fact that Detroit goes for it so much on fourth down, where they’re just like an aggressive team in all phases.I think they’re at seven-for-eight on fourth down. Does that change your approach, and how important is it from a mental standpoint for players to realize that even when you get that third down stop, you might not be getting off the field?
“Yeah, I mean, it definitely plays into it. Just because, you know… make it third-and-10, you know, usually you give up eight yards and punt team is coming off the field, right? These guys, it’s not the case. And it’s not just in the plus territory. I mean, the NFL is trended toward a lot of teams going for it on fourth down in plus territory. These guys will go for it in their own territory. They’ll go for it midfield, they’ll go for a little bit longer for it, fourth downs. So just knowing that going in, it layers your calls just a little bit different, you know, really doesn’t change. It really doesn’t change our attitude with the play. But, you know, maybe what you’re willing to give up on a third down might not be the same this week as in other weeks.”
Offensive coordinator Tommy Rees was asked if they are close to getting the chemistry improved between Joe Flacco and Jerry Jeudy:
“Yeah, I do. I think we’re close there. Again, there’s a lot of parts of the offense that allow some of that to happen and putting Jerry in position to make sure that we’re giving him the best opportunities to get open, finish some things. And yeah, we’ve had some chances there that maybe were just a little bit off, we’ve had some chances maybe we’ve missed, we’ve had some looks that we like that maybe just haven’t connected. So, just continue to find ways to get him going and get the ball in his hands.”
Some other notes to look forward to:
- We highlighted this above, but Jerry Jeudy needs to get on track to help open up the offense too. As much as I think Judkins’ running ability will help, Jeudy has 134 yards receiving through 3 games, and a handful of drops. His biggest impact has probably been on drawing some pass interference penalties. We need Jeudy back to being free and relaxed. It’s the type of thing where I think you can make the effort to get him involved early on, for the importance it has on the rest of the offense. If it doesn’t work, it doesn’t work, and you still have the rest of the game to adapt.
- Last week, we saw a significant increase in utilization for Isaiah Bond. There wasn’t necessarily a payoff, but it’s something to watch.
- Defensively, are there really any other notes we need to mention? Nickelback remains the biggest question mark on the team, and with Jared Goff’s ability, it is surely something that the Lions are aware of and ready to attack.
- Cleveland got a big boost from special teams last week, including Andre Szmyt’s 55-yarder to win it. Indoors this week, hopefully the special teams unit can keep it going.
Predictions
Here are predictions from multiple staff members at DBN:
Chris Pokorny: “I think we’ll see the Browns’ offense have some good moments, in a game that will be a fun battle that is close enough to keep fans wondering if Cleveland can pull it off. Ultimately, the Lions have that firepower that will allow them to secure the win late and hold on.” Lions 23, Browns 17
Jared Mueller: “I very much believe the Cleveland Browns can win in Week 4 against the Detroit Lions for a wide variety of reasons. I also do not expect a victory but a close game. Amon-Ra St. Brown will have a field day with the Browns slot cornerbacks and that will be the difference in the ball game.” Lions 21, Browns 17
Thomas Moore: “The Browns certainly have what it takes to win this game, especially on the defensive side of the ball as they showed last week against the Packers. The problem is that the offense continues to show no signs of putting together multiple scoring drives. And with the offensive tackle situation continuing to spiral, it appears that a solution is not yet in sight.
Another fear is that this team never seems to be able to handle or sustain even a little bit of success. The Lions are good, and unless Cleveland’s offense finds itself, it will yet another disappointing trip to the Motor City for the Browns.” Lions 24, Browns 10
Curtiss Brown: “After shocking the Green Bay Packers last Sunday, the Cleveland Browns will look to do it again, this time against the Detroit Lions. Are the Lions a good team? Yes. Are they a scary team that the Browns should fear? Absolutely not.
After their week 1 loss against the Packers, Detroit’s offense was able to run the ball effectively against a Chicago Bears defense front 7 that’s 28th in defensive success run rate and a Baltimore Ravens front that was missing Nnamdi Madubuike. Detroit’s offensive line went up against a physical front in the Packers in Week 1 and struggled and Cleveland’s front might be the best in the entire league that they will face this season (outside of the Philadelphia Eagles). Detroit’s offense will try to generate explosives on the ground (both inside and outside runs) and on through the air.
Offensively, the Browns have to just sustain drives. It’s easier said than done with an offensive line that’s battered. Detroit’s defense has weak spots to exploit and it will be curious if the Browns offense can exploit them. Cleveland has found some success running the ball towards the end of the 4th quarter last week but if the run game isn’t working, the team might be stuck. However, Detroit’s secondary has some weaknesses that you can exploit.
Close game, could be low scoring but Detroit barely wins because their offensive talent is better than Cleveland’s.” Lions 21, Browns 20
Barry Shuck: “The Lions are a roller coaster this year, but also a very good team. Remember, they won 15 games last season. Let’s look at matchups: Detroit is #9 in passing yards allowed (761), whereas Cleveland’s defense is #5 in pass defense with allowing just 521 yards. On offense, the Browns are middle of the pack in passing yardage (650) while the Lions’ defense is middle of the pack in pass defense, allowing 710 yards. To me, this means the passing game evens out for both clubs.
In rushing, we know the Browns cannot run the ball and are ranked #29 (260), but their defense is #1 against the run, allowing just 172 rushing yards and a single rushing TD. Detroit is the league’s fourth-best rushing team (447), so this will be a great battle. The Lions’ defense is ranked #11 against the run, which doesn’t matter since CLE can’t move it on the ground anyways.
The “X” factor for Cleveland’s offense will be Quinshon. Will he suddenly become our new Nick Chubb? If so, this offense just might start moving, especially with the success of our tight ends helping the passing game. At first, I thought another trip to the woodshed, but this Browns defense is for real and has kept them in two of three games. Special teams is on the rebound, and if Cleveland finds a running game, something just might happen. After beating one of the NFL’s best teams last week, I am hoping for a win, or at least it will be close, rather than a beating. The key will be to take WR Amon-Ra St. Brown out of the game” Lions 24, Browns 20
Ezweav: “The win last week certainly did a lot to change perceptions moving forward. This will be a much steeper test on the road and against a better opponent. The real key to everything is going to be their OL versus our DL. It’s not just good-on-good it might very well be best-on-best. If Cleveland’s front is unable to generate pressure on Jared Goff, it may be rough sledding for our secondary (in particular whoever is playing the slot). On the other hand, if Detroit can’t keep the rush at bay than it could be a very long day for Mr. Goff indeed.
Detroit’s defense is no slouch either and that’s where the real disparities lie. While Quinshon Judkins’ performance thus far bodes will for the continued development of the running game, it was another rough outing for Joe Flacco last week. There could be a variety of reasons for this but he just seems to be not pulling the trigger for who-knows-why
I think he’ll come out of it a little bit this week and we’ll make a few more plays. But also this seems like a game where both teams end up scoring more than they should, which will be entertaining but ultimately not fulfilling.” Lions 25, Browns 24
Who do you think will win, Browns fans? Let us know in the comments section below.
